Sunrise 5:28 AM   Sunset 7:11 PM Moonrise 5:40 AM   Moonset 8:17 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

FXUS65 KTWC 080901 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 200 AM MST Wed May 8 2024

SYNOPSIS
Warm, dry, and breezy conditions continue into the weekend. The windiest day will be today, especially east of Tucson where locally windy conditions are expected. High temperatures will be near normal for much of this week, then several degrees above normal this weekend.

DISCUSSION
An overall benign pattern for southeast Arizona as the region will be under the influence of dry westerly flow aloft through the forecast period. A weak disturbance passing well to our north will enhance the gradient slightly today, allowing for breezy to locally windy conditions, especially east of Tucson. Sustained winds this afternoon will be 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to around 35 mph. This will result in near critical fire weather conditions east of Tucson but the winds aren't quite strong enough or over a large enough geographical area to warrant the issuance of fire weather headlines.

The gradient will lessen ever so slightly Thursday into the weekend but certainly afternoon breezes/gustiness are expected which is fairly typical climatologically for this time of year. A weak upper low will be located across N AZ/UT/NV Friday and Saturday and while that won't have much impact on our weather it will prevent temperatures from warming up considerably as highs will be near normal to a few degrees above normal through Saturday. Once that system pushes to our east, temperatures will warm slightly early next week with highs about 3 to 5 degrees above normal.



AVIATION
Valid through 09/12Z.
SKC thru the valid forecast period. SFC winds 12 kts or less thru 08/16Z, then becoming WLY/SWLY and increasing to 14-22 kts and occasional gusts to around 30 kts, especially east of KTUS including KDUG/KSAD/KALK. SFC winds then diminish aft 09/03Z becoming 12 kts or less overnight. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
High temperatures will near be normal through Saturday, then gradually warming to about 3 to 5 degrees above normal early next week. For the forecast period, min RHs values will be in the single digits to lower teens in the valleys, with values generally in the teens for the mountains.

Breezy afternoon/early evening winds continue today, especially to the east of Tucson. Winds diminish Thursday into the weekend, although typical May afternoon gustiness can be expected. Wind speeds today will again be near critical levels for a couple of hours during the mid to late afternoon across portions of Cochise, Graham, and southern Greenlee counties. Additionally, minimum relative humidities will be in the 9 to 13 percent range. However, the duration and geographical area/extent of critical wind speeds do not warrant RFW headlines.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Tucson, AZ,