Picture Rocks, AZ Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Picture Rocks, AZ

June 20, 2024 4:54 AM MST (11:54 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:16 AM   Sunset 7:36 PM
Moonrise 6:49 PM   Moonset 3:45 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Picture Rocks, AZ
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Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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FXUS65 KTWC 200943 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 243 AM MST Thu Jun 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
Hot temperatures today with an Excessive Heat Warning in effect for portions of southeast Arizona. Moisture will increase Thursday resulting in the potential for thunderstorms each day into next week week. Storms today could produce strong winds and blowing dust mainly from Nogales to Tucson and into Pinal County. Windy conditions are also expected today into Friday. The added moisture will also result in temperatures dropping back down to more seasonable levels.

DISCUSSION
An outflow boundary that originated in New Mexico Wednesday afternoon is currently moving through Cochise and Graham Counties. Behind it surface winds have turned easterly and dew points are in the 50s. The leading edge looks to be just past Wilcox. Hi-res models show this boundary continuing westward into the afternoon making it as far as Tucson or just west of Tucson.
At the same time the surface pressure gradient will tighten thanks to surface high pressure building over the Midwest and troughing to the west. This will lead to strong easterly winds through Friday with speeds 20 to 35 mph and gusts 35 to 50 mph area wide with the strongest winds in the Gila River Valley and eastern Cochise County. A Wind Advisory is in effect for those two areas.
High pressure aloft will be building back west leading to a further increase in temperatures today with KTUS seeing a 63 percent chance to hit 110 degrees, which would be the first of the year. An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for Tucson and areas north and westward.

Mid-level moisture also begins to increase today with PWAT values increasing to around 1.3 inches by this evening. The HRRR and other CAMs are all in fairly good agreement showing a line of storms forming mid-afternoon from Santa Cruz County north through Tucson and into Pinal County. Convergence along the aforementioned surface boundary will be the trigger for storms aided by synoptic scale lift ahead of a shortwave trough over southern California. CAPE values will range from 500-1000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear as high as 35 kts. There will also be directional shear with surface winds out of the southeast and mid- level winds out of the southwest. Forecast soundings show an inverted V signature with DCAPE values up to 2000 J/kg. Because of this any storms that do form could produce strong winds with one or two possibly producing severe winds. The HRRR has a 30 percent probability for 50 kt winds or greater from north Tucson into Pinal County and 10 percent probability extending into Santa Cruz County. Outflows from these storms could also produce blowing dust, and as a result a Blowing Dust Advisory has been issued for most of Pinal County.

Friday gusty easterly surface winds will continue with the strongest winds still expected in the Gila River Valley. Moisture advection will continue with PWAT values reaching up to 1.5 inches. The shortwave will move north and flatten out as the ridge continues to build further west. Temperatures will moderate some thanks to the moisture with highs about 3 degrees less than today, although cloud cover and storms could prevent temps from reaching their full potential. Mid-level flow will be weaker but instability will still be between 500-1000 J/kg. The HRRR shows isolated thunderstorms tied mainly to the higher terrain. The main threat will again be wind, but probabilities for strong winds are less than Thursday with the HRRR showing most of the area under 30-50 percent chance for winds 30 kts or greater.

This weekend into early next week the high becomes centered over Arizona and the AZ/NM border. This keeps southern Arizona in favorable mid-level easterly flow with PWATS ranging from 1.2" along the AZ/NM border to 1.75" in central and western Pima County. These values are approaching the NAEFS 99th percentile.
With the moisture staying in place expect each day to see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Exact placement and coverage will be dictated by the placement of ridge. Closer to the center of the high convection will be stunted somewhat. The main threat will continue to be strong outflow winds and lightning, although some storms will be capable of locally heavy rainfall if the boundary layer moistens up. Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal through early next week and could be moderated by thunderstorm activity.

AVIATION
Valid through 21/12Z.
SKC through 20/18Z, then BKN clouds 10-14k ft AGL developing from KTUS/KOLS eastward. Convergence along a surface boundary will likely lead to isolated to scattered -SHRA/-TSRA starting around 21/21Z through about 22/03Z. Main terminals affected will be KTUS and KOLS. Storms will be capable of winds 35-45 kts with a 10-30 percent chance for winds in excess of 50 kts. Outside of storms SFC winds become SELY at 15-25 kts with gusts to 30-40 kts across much of the forecast area. The strongest winds are expected at KDUG and KSAD terminals. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
Temperatures are expected to peak today from Tucson westward, then more seasonable temperatures thereafter.
Starting this morning, surface winds turn to the east to southeast and become stronger, especially across Graham/Greenlee/Cochise Counties where sustained 20-ft winds of 20 to 35 mph are expected with stronger gusts. The strongest of these winds will be in the Upper Gila River Valley near Safford as well as near Douglas along the International and NM borders. With these east to southeast winds, there will be increased moisture with min RH values in these locales around 20 percent Thursday. So while the winds are at critical levels, RH values will remain just above critical levels but certainly still elevated fire weather conditions due to the strong winds and dry fuels Thursday.
Breezy to windy conditions continue Friday, though increased moisture will have overspread more of the forecast area. A mixture of dry/wet isolated to scattered are expected starting Thursday afternoon from Tucson eastward and then to include the remainder of southeast Arizona Friday. As moisture remains this weekend, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue each day through the weekend into early next week with a low to mid grade monsoon pattern in place.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ501>506.

Blowing Dust Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ502-504>506.

Wind Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 5 AM MST Friday for AZZ508-509.




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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KMZJ PINAL AIRPARK,AZ 16 sm19 minSE 038 smMostly Cloudy73°F41°F31%29.76
KTUS TUCSON INTL,AZ 19 sm61 minESE 0710 smClear77°F39°F26%29.81
KDMA DAVIS MONTHAN AFB,AZ 20 sm59 minE 0410 smClear75°F37°F25%29.78
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Tucson, AZ,




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