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FXUS65 KTWC 032108 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 208 PM MST Tue Oct 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
Dry and cooler than average temperatures are expected today through Wednesday with light winds. Easterly flow will develop after Thursday with temperatures rising above average again into the weekend. As moisture tracks in from the east, slight chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Friday and Saturday, primarily in eastern counties.

DISCUSSION
A nice, cooler than average day this afternoon and with clear skies, light winds, dry air and a cool air mass overhead, it will be another cool night and Wednesday morning with temperatures within a degree or two of this morning. For much of the area this means lows 3-9 degrees cooler than average and we should see a few mid-upper 30s again in the areas north and south of Willcox.

Wednesday, with plenty of sunshine and a slowly moderating air mass afternoon temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than today which would place them right about average for the day.

Thursday onward the weather pattern changes with upper level ridging building across the west and low to mid level easterly flow developing over our area. This easterly flow will result in a few changes outside of wind direction and speed. For one, moisture will be advected across the area with rising PWs and dewpoints. This increased moisture will bring about a slight chance of some showers and maybe thunderstorms primarily Friday and Saturday afternoon over the eastern counties of Cochise, Graham and Greenlee. Not expecting much in the way of precipitation or widespread activity though. The other notable change will be a solid jump in temperatures Thursday and Friday with the greatest jump from the Tucson metro westward due to downsloping effects. Models have steadily increased the temperature forecast for those two days and now it is beginning to look like Tucson may take a run at 100 degrees on Friday. The blend popped out a 97, however given that MOS was higher (GFS 99 & EC 101 (00Z) and 99(12Z)) and local thickness guidance would give 99-100 from the deterministic runs, I opted to raise the high to 99 for now. At this time the blend guidance is giving a 10 percent chance of 100+, up from 4 percent 24 hours ago. The record for the day is 101.

Friday night/Saturday morning will be a warm one for areas susceptible to a southeast wind which a large part of southern Tucson near and south of I-10, where the overnight low will likely be above 70. Other, wind sheltered areas will be a good deal cooler than that and closer to normal. There is a slight risk of a shower in the local Tucson area Saturday but for now left it out of the forecast given the very low probability at this time.

Sunday onward the easterly flow eases with heights very gradually lowering for slightly cooling temperatures, but still remaining a bit above normal. By the middle of next week models are rather inconsistent with the southern stream energy with some solutions (deterministic and ensemble) attempting to grab tropical moisture and shunt it northward. Would be an interesting scenario if it comes to pass but not much confident in any given solution at this time.

AVIATION
Valid through 05/00Z.
Mostly SKC for all TAF sites with FEW clouds AOA 20k ft MSL aft 04/10Z primarily for KOLS/KDUG. SFC winds SWLY up to 12 kts with occasional gusts up to 25 kts until 04/05Z where winds become light and variable for the remaining majority of the period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF ammendments.

FIRE WEATHER
Dry and cooler than normal conditions expected through Wednesday with light winds and minimum humidity values of 12 to 18 percent across the majority of the area. Easterly flow develops Thursday and strengthens into the weekend resulting in rising temperatures and higher humidity values as moisture moves into the area from the east. This moisture will also bring a slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms across eastern areas on Friday.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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