Friday, August23, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Picture Rocks, AZ

Version 3.4
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at Allen

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 7:02PM Friday August 23, 2019 4:56 PM MST (23:56 UTC) Moonrise 11:58PMMoonset 1:09PM Illumination 41% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Picture Rocks, AZ
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location: 32.3, -111.21     debug

Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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Fxus65 ktwc 232131
area forecast discussion
national weather service tucson az
230 pm mst Fri aug 23 2019

Synopsis A more active monsoon pattern will continue through
Saturday with daytime high temperatures near or slightly below
normal. A drying trend then resumes Sunday with isolated storms
limited to near the international border as high pressure starts to
build overhead. Dry conditions generally prevail Monday and Tuesday
with above normal temperatures returning. Thereafter, moisture
returns by Wednesday, resulting in a chance of showers and
thunderstorms the latter half of next week.

Discussion The latest GOES satellite imagery shows partly
cloudy skies east of tucson, with mostly sunny skies to the west of
tucson. Kemx area radars are rather quiet across southeast arizona
early this afternoon, with showers thunderstorms noted in the white
mountains and over mt. Graham and the huachuca chiricahua mountains
attm. Blended total precip water imagery has shown little change
from this morning with pwat's ranging between 1.0" and 1.3" across
most of the forecast area (except in the white mountains with values
around 0.7"). Surface dewpoints have fallen into the 50's across the
southern half of the state.

With plenty of moisture in place and abundant sunshine expect
convection to continue to initiate over the mountains south and east
of tucson through the remainder of the afternoon hours, gradually
pushing out into the valleys by the mid to late afternoon hours. The
latest high res models continue to show areas south of tucson
becoming more active by the mid late afternoon hours. Steering flow
is rather weak, with the general movement of storms to the
east northeast. Will have to rely on outflow boundaries to get
storms into the lower deserts northern portion of the cwa. Overall,
the peak timing for maximum storm coverage today will be between 4
pm and 9 pm, with the main threats being heavy rainfall and strong
winds small hail with the stronger storms. If storm outflows do
manage to work into northern pima southern pinal counties, blowing
dust could also be a concern, especially along the i-10 corridor.

The overall pattern remains conducive for storm development on
Saturday as deep moisture continues to stream northward from mexico.

Expect isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms south southeast of tucson.

A drying trend then begins on Sunday as strong high pressure aloft
off the california coast shifts inland and becomes elongated from
california through arizona and into new mexico. Expect only isolated
shower thunderstorm development on Sunday along the international
border. Mainly dry conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday as the
upper high strengthens overhead, with high temperatures these days
climbing back 3-7 degrees above normal.

By Wednesday of next week, the upper highs shifts east of the area
which allows moisture to begin to work back into arizona from the
east southeast. Increasing shower thunderstorm chances are noted
from Wednesday onward into next weekend as this moisture transport
continues. Numerical guidance values indicate high temperatures
lowering from a couple of degrees above normal next Wednesday to a
couple of degrees below normal by Friday of next week.

Aviation... Valid through 25 00z.

Isolated tsra shra currently developing east to south of ktus,
becoming scattered to numerous across much of southeast arizona
later this afternoon into this evening. Expect decreasing coverage
of tsra shra tonight with the bulk of activity ending by daybreak on
Saturday, redeveloping Saturday afternoon. Brief wind gusts to 40
kts and MVFR CIGS vsbys with the stronger tsra. Otherwise, cloud
decks mainly 12k-18k ft msl. Surface wind this afternoon wly nwly 8-
15 kts with gusts near 20 kts, decreasing light and variable
overnight. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

Fire weather Scattered to numerous thunderstorms across much of
southeast arizona this afternoon and evening, followed by another
round of storms Saturday with slightly less spatial coverage. Drier
air starts to work its way in on Sunday bringing only isolated
thunderstorms, further drying on Monday into Tuesday. However, this
downturn is short-lived as moisture increases by the middle of next
week returning scattered storms to the region. Other than breezy
afternoons in the upper gila river valley this weekend, 20-foot
winds will be terrain driven mainly under 15 mph. The usual threat
from strong thunderstorm outflow winds also remains in place.

Twc watches warnings advisories None.

Discussion... Zell
aviation fire weather... Howlett powell
visit us on facebook... Twitter... Youtube... And at weather.Gov tucson

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tucson Ryan Field Airport, AZ11 mi71 minNW 910.00 miFair97°F57°F27%1012.2 hPa
Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, AZ19 mi2 hrsW 710.00 miFair95°F54°F26%1012.2 hPa
Tucson, Tucson International Airport, AZ19 mi2.1 hrsWNW 10 G 1610.00 miFair97°F53°F23%1007.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRYN

Wind History from RYN (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE11N8SW15
1 day agoN6N6NE4------------------CalmNE3E5NW4CalmSE3NW4W5CalmW9
2 days agoNW12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tucson, AZ
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.