Tuesday, January28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Picture Rocks, AZ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 5:55PM Tuesday January 28, 2020 6:10 PM MST (01:10 UTC) Moonrise 9:50AMMoonset 9:32PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Picture Rocks, AZ
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location: 32.3, -111.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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FXUS65 KTWC 282229 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 329 PM MST Tue Jan 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. Another weather system will bring a few mainly mountain showers to the area Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Gusty winds at times with several more degrees of cooling. High pressure will bring dry conditions and another jump in temperatures by this weekend.

DISCUSSION. After a very pleasant afternoon across southeastern Arizona, a shortwave impulse will quickly drop south from the Great Basin and into southern Arizona through Wednesday. This system appears to briefly close off at 500mb as it crosses into Sonora, Mexico. With the continental trajectory and lack of moisture advection, this system will be on the dry side. Nonetheless, a few hundredths to isolated areas around 1/10 of an inch of rain are possible. Could see slightly higher amounts across the mountains, especially north and east of Tucson. Currently not in the forecast, but don't be surprised if there are a few rumbles of thunder as marginal instability and steep lapse rates could result in some very isolated thunderstorms briefly during the afternoon and early evening. If trends continue, thunder could be added to the forecast tonight or tomorrow morning. This system will have enough cold air available to drop snow levels to around 5000-5500ft, however not expecting any accumulation at these levels. A couple inches of snow will be possible above 7000ft. Showers should begin to develop across southeastern Arizona by Wednesday afternoon and continue off and on through Thursday morning. In the wake of the system, Thursday will be cooler with temperatures in the 50s/60s across the area.

Another system will quickly slide south into the region with a couple showers possible near the AZ/NM border on Friday afternoon. Then a dry northerly flow will take hold until heights build with a strengthening ridge of high pressure sliding into the western US. The axis of the ridge will extend across central Cali and into the Great basin, with us situated between a retrograding closed low over Baja and the ridge to the north. This will allow for quite a warmup, but the best height rises will remain over the Great Basin. Sunday appears to be the warmest day with highs into at least the middle 70s for lower deserts and middle to upper 60s for areas south and east of Tucson.

By Monday, GEFS/ECMWF ensembles are pointing to a significant pattern change as a deep and cold trough is forecast to develop and move east across the Great Basin. It is too early to tell the exact track and southern extent of the system, but a pattern change is possible with much cooler weather and a chance for precipitation.

AVIATION. Valid through 30/00Z. SKC area wide until FEW-SCT clouds above 15k MSL approach late overnight. Isolated -SHRA develop tomorrow afternoon east of KTUS with lowering cloud bases around precipitation. Surface winds are currently SWLY-NWLY and less than 10 kts, becoming variable at night. Winds then strengthen tomorrow afternoon, mainly along the International Border WLY-NWLY 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER. An approaching weather system will skim the region tomorrow, primarily affecting areas east of Tucson. This brings generally light amounts of valley rain and mountain snow. Conditions dry out by daybreak Thursday, remaining dry until the following system arrives early next week with another chance for precipitation. This second system also looks much cooler. Southwesterly winds become rather breezy this upcoming Monday, reaching 15-20 mph across a large portion of the area.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tucson Ryan Field Airport, AZ11 mi86 minNNW 810.00 miFair64°F21°F19%1019 hPa
Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, AZ19 mi73 minWNW 610.00 miFair63°F23°F22%1016.5 hPa
Tucson, Tucson International Airport, AZ19 mi78 minN 910.00 miFair64°F19°F18%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRYN

Wind History from RYN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4W6------------------CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmSW3W6NW4NW11
G15
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1 day agoNW4S5------------------CalmE4--CalmW5W3NW9--NW13
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2 days agoNW7W5------------------E3SE3SE3E3SW3SE3CalmCalmNW8W5NW8NW8NW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tucson, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.