Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Picture Rocks, AZ

Version 3.4
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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:29AMSunset 7:33PM Thursday July 18, 2019 11:04 AM MST (18:04 UTC) Moonrise 9:03PMMoonset 7:01AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Picture Rocks, AZ
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location: 32.3, -111.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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Fxus65 ktwc 181555
afdtwc
area forecast discussion
national weather service tucson az
855 am mst Thu jul 18 2019

Synopsis Daytime temperatures will experience a decreasing trend
through the weekend and into next week. A more favorable steering
flow for daily thunderstorms will become established by early next
week.

Discussion Latest hi-res model output depict most thunderstorm
activity along the international border for this afternoon and
evening. Although typical spots east of tucson will have isolated
shower shower and storm activity as well. Models are suggesting less
activity today afternoon compared to yesterday. However, the 18 12z
sounding for tucson has a pw value around 1.5" and there is notable
vertical wind shear throughout the troposphere. Steering flow into
the late morning is rather light, northeasterly at around 5 kts
which could produce locally heavy rains. The steering flow picks up
as the afternoon progresses when 500mb winds mix down.

The more typical monsoon pattern should start establishing early
next week as the high repositions over the four corners and easterly
flow comes into the area.

Aviation Valid through 19 18z.

Bkn-ovc debris cloudiness above 10k ft agl will tend to diminish as
the morning progresses. Isolated to scattered shra tsra coverage
mainly along the international border will develop after 18 19z with
possible impacts for kols kdug terminals, diminishing after 19 03z.

Surface winds generally less than 12 kts through the forecast period
though gusty and erratic outflow winds are expected with shra tsra.

Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

Fire weather A fairly typical monsoon pattern will continue
across southeast arizona through the forecast period. Into the
weekend the bulk of the shower and thunderstorm coverage will be to
the south and east of tucson with more abundant moisture by early
next week increasing shower and thunderstorm chances for the
remainder of southeast arizona. Expect brief strong, gusty and
erratic winds near thunderstorms. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be
mainly under 15 mph.

Prev discussion
The overall flow pattern will continue to support
daily isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly
limited to areas south and east of tucson, through the weekend.

Models continued to amplify the upper ridge of high pressure with it
becoming centered over the four corners region or central rockies
early next week. This positioning of the high pressure center will
result in a more desirable steering flow to support thunderstorm
activity in the lower deserts. However, there will likely be daily
variability in the areal coverage through the week. None the less,
rain chances will be on the upswing next week with daytime
temperatures hovering near seasonable readings.

Twc watches warnings advisories None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tucson Ryan Field Airport, AZ11 mi80 minW 310.00 miFair90°F60°F38%1016.9 hPa
Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, AZ19 mi69 minW 810.00 miFair90°F59°F36%1011.7 hPa
Tucson, Tucson International Airport, AZ19 mi72 minN 510.00 miFair91°F60°F35%1011.6 hPa

Wind History from TUS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3NW6W8N7
G15
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G16
NW8S13S12S14S8SE8E3SE5SE7SE5SE11SE8SE8SE5CalmN5N5W5
1 day agoCalmCalmW12
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SE8NE85SW5W6W8W4S7S5S7S9S6S8SW11
G23
W7S10S10S10W6
2 days agoN8--N8
G16
N7NW7N75S9SW4--SW4SE3--SE6SE7S5SE6S6SE6SE9SE6S3NW53

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tucson, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.