Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 7:01 PM Moonrise 7:04 PM   Moonset 5:30 AM

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FXUS65 KTWC 222042 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 142 PM MST Mon Apr 22 2024


SYNOPSIS
Dry with seasonable warm temperatures will continue through the first of half of the week then turning cooler and breezy during the latter half of the week.

DISCUSSION
Visible satellite shows mostly clear skies with the exception of some scattered cumulus in Cochise and northern Graham/Greenlee Counties. Today has been the warmest day of the year so far for Tucson with the airport hitting 95 degrees, which is also the first 95 of the year. Temperatures will remain above normal into Wednesday, although highs will be a few degrees cooler than today as the ridge currently overhead begins to weaken.

A shortwave trough moves in from the Pacific Thursday ushering in a slightly cooler air mass. The system will be dry with the main impact being breezy winds Wednesday and especially Thursday east of Tucson. Another trough, moving in from the Pacific Northwest, will move through the region late Friday into Saturday. These two systems will keep high temperatures at or a couple degrees below normal Thursday into the weekend. Although there is still some uncertainty with how far south the second trough will travel, which is leading to some uncertainty with how much cooling there will be this weekend. The second system will keep winds elevated and lead to a slight chance (15-25 percent) of precip in the White Mountains Saturday.

AVIATION
Valid through 24/00z.
SKC across most of SE AZ with the exception of FEW-SCT cumulus clouds AOA 10-12k ft AGL over the Chiricahua and White Mountains.
Surface winds this afternoon will be around 10-12 kts from the southwest with gusts 20-25 kts becoming light and variable overnight. Afternoon surface winds tomorrow with be around 13-15 kts from the southwest with gusts 25-30 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
Dry with above normal temperatures through the middle of the week then a cool down as a couple weather systems move through. Minimum relative humidity values in the afternoon between 8% and 17% each day through Wednesday then increasing a few percent into the weekend. Expect typical afternoon gustiness through the middle of the week, especially Tuesday and Wednesday.
Thursday expect strong gusty winds especially east of Tucson as a weather system moves through. Wind and RH will likely meet Red Flag criteria for large portions of Cochise, Graham, and Greenlee Counties Thursday, but at this time fire danger is still not expected to be high. Friday into the weekend winds remain elevated but below critical thresholds.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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