Picture Rocks, AZ Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Picture Rocks, AZ

June 22, 2024 1:43 AM MST (08:43 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:17 AM   Sunset 7:36 PM
Moonrise 8:48 PM   Moonset 5:35 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Picture Rocks, AZ
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Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 128 PM MST Fri Jun 21 2024

A strong increase in moisture will bring daily chances of thunderstorms to the area into next week. Some storms will generate strong outflow winds with locally heavy rain possible.
This will also knock several degrees off of the heat. We may see temperatures climb back up a bit as high pressure settles overhead next week.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies early this afternoon across southeast Arizona with considerable mid and high level cloudiness. We're now seeing cumulus clouds developing due to the heating, moisture and instability across the region as PWAT values range from 1 to 1.5 inches across the area. Gusty east to southeast winds continue this afternoon but wind speeds have certainly diminished compared to yesterday and earlier this morning. HRRR/CAMs are showing convective development this afternoon primarily in a north-south zone across central portions of the forecast area. The center of this line would be from around Nogales-Tucson-Kearny.
MLCAPE values are locally in the 1000-1500 J/KG range this afternoon per the latest RAP mesoanalysis with DCAPE values near 2000 J/KG.
This will result in strong/gusty outflow winds from the thunderstorm activity that does develop. In addition, some locally heavy rainfall of around 0.5"-1" is expected with the stronger storms. The convection will make it a bit farther west today compared to yesterday as greater moisture levels allow additional westward development on outflow boundaries. In addition, some areas of blowing dust may occur primarily in Pinal County due to gusty outflow winds. A few of the CAMs are persisting shower activity into the overnight but stronger thunderstorms will mainly occur through the afternoon into early evening.

Additional moisture will move into the area tonight and Saturday from Sonora and the Gulf of California. This will raise the PWAT values this weekend into the 1.25" (eastern areas) to around 2" (western deserts). These are very anomalous for late June, running about 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal. With abundant moisture and the mid/upper level high to our east, our region will continue to see a favorable steering flow from the southeast. That combination of deep moisture, favorable steering and instability will result in scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms this weekend for the entire forecast area. The stronger storms will have both wind and localized flooding threats, as rain amounts in excess of 1 inch are possible with the stronger storms. Temperatures will drop back down to seasonable levels this weekend.

For Monday and continuing through next week, the mid/upper level high will gradually strengthen and shift a bit closer to southeast Arizona. Therefore, while the moisture isn't going anywhere and will be recycled each day, the mid/upper level high location and potential subsidence will tend to shift the focus of convective activity a bit closer to the higher terrain overall with the better chances starting to focus a slightly more towards areas from Tucson south and eastward. Temperatures will nudge back up next week, running a few degrees above normal.

Valid through 23/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds 10-14k ft AGL. SCT -TSRA will with TSRA and BKN CIGS around 6k ft AGL possible thru 22/03Z. Sct -SHRA then possible overnight but confidence is low. East to southeast winds 10-20 kts, diminishing after 22/03Z. Stronger and erratic outflows possible with storms. Additional SCT -TSRA activity expected aft 22/18Z thru the end of the period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

Gusty east to southeast winds continue to diminish this afternoon. A strong increase in moisture will bring better RH values along with a chance of thunderstorms into at least early next week. Some storms will generate strong and erratic outflow winds.
Moisture is expected to be deep enough for some storms to generate locally heavy rain.

Temperatures may heat back up by mid week as high pressure builds nearly overhead, however we should keep some storm chances around.


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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KMZJ PINAL AIRPARK,AZ 16 sm28 minS 0910 smClear84°F61°F45%29.88
KTUS TUCSON INTL,AZ 19 sm50 minESE 14G2310 smClear81°F61°F51%29.95
KDMA DAVIS MONTHAN AFB,AZ 20 sm48 minSE 1510 smMostly Cloudy79°F61°F54%29.92
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