Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Picture Rocks, AZ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 6:59PM Sunday August 25, 2019 5:08 PM MST (00:08 UTC) Moonrise 12:43AMMoonset 3:11PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Picture Rocks, AZ
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location: 32.3, -111.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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Fxus65 ktwc 252127
afdtwc
area forecast discussion
national weather service tucson az
227 pm mst Sun aug 25 2019

Synopsis Expect limited thunderstorm activity through Tuesday as
high pressure builds overhead. The drier pattern will also bring
hotter temperatures, especially by Tuesday. A more favorable flow
with adequate moisture will provide scattered mainly afternoon and
evening thunderstorms Wednesday into next weekend.

Discussion High pressure continues to build in from the
northwest accompanied by mid level warming. Another 1.5c warmer at
500mb on the morning sounding. Plenty of moisture in place with
precipitable water values ranging from 1.3 inches east to 1.7
inches west and surface dew points easily hanging on to 60+ values
this afternoon. Most of that will be wasted with the weak
dynamics. A little better environment still exists for storms
south and southwest of tucson. It was a tad slow, but we're seeing
a couple of mountain storms pop up now in the huachucas and
chiricahuas. We may see a couple wandering into lower elevations
later; propagating along outflows.

The ridge will strengthen overhead, with the mid level high center
consolidating over arizona and new mexico over the next 48 hours.

Some modest mid level drying as this occurs, but surface dew
points will remain about average for late august. Temperatures
will climb back to around 6 to 8 degrees above average, but are
expected to fall 3 or 4 degrees short of our recent record heat.

At this point it looks like just below excessive heat levels with
a 106 expected for tucson Tuesday afternoon. Meanwhile, conditions
will remain less than favorable for thunderstorms again Monday.

The extra heat on Tuesday will probably bully some storms up later
in the afternoon than usual, but they will still favor mountains
with limited valley support outside of strong outflows. By
Wednesday most ensembles and ensemble means are weakening high
pressure over the area with deeper moisture over the SE corner of
the state. Some associated mid level cooling and upper level
diffluence on the eastern flank of the high should lead to a busy
thunderstorm period for our area Wednesday and Thursday. Both
deterministic GFS and ECMWF are showing some flavor of inverted
trough rotating around the eastern periphery of the high Friday
afternoon, with some enhanced thunderstorm chances for our corner
of the state. This is supported by naefs ensemble mid level
temperature trends.

By next weekend, ensembles suggest the ridge shifting to near the
4-corners region as a trough digs into the pacific northwest and
another into the great lakes and midwest. That would tend to keep
things going with a favorable flow and a potentially active
tropics to keep an eye on to start september.

Aviation Valid through 27 00z.

Isolated -tsra -shra thru 26 04z primarily along the international
border from kdug westward to south of sells, including kols and
kalk. Otherwise, cloud decks mainly at 10k-15k ft msl. Sfc wind
generally less than 12 kts, except in the vicinity of ksad where
wind speeds will be 12-18 kts with gusts to around 25 kts. Sfc wind
direction will favor a wly nwly direction thru 26 03z and then again
aft 26 18z, with wind direction variable in direction between 26 03z
and 26 18z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

Fire weather Isolated thunderstorms are expected through the
evening hours tonight mainly south to southwest of tucson. Dry
conditions will then occur across much of the area Monday and
Tuesday, with just a slight chance of thunderstorms in the mountains
of santa cruz and cochise counties Tuesday afternoon. A favorable
flow pattern for shower storm development returns Wednesday and
continues through next weekend, resulting in isolated to scattered
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Aside from
any thunderstorm wind gusts, 20-foot winds will be terrain driven
and mainly under 15 mph.

Twc watches warnings advisories
None.

Meyer zell
visit us on facebook... Twitter... Youtube... And at weather.Gov tucson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tucson Ryan Field Airport, AZ11 mi23 minWNW 610.00 miFair95°F62°F34%1014.6 hPa
Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, AZ19 mi70 minVar 210.00 miPartly Cloudy99°F59°F27%1007.5 hPa
Tucson, Tucson International Airport, AZ19 mi75 minW 6 G 2010.00 miFair95°F64°F36%1009.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTUS

Wind History from TUS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr6NW9
G16
W9----S10S7--CalmS4--S6S4--S43--N45NW6
G15
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G20
1 day agoNW10
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W4--------SE6SE3S7SE7SW3W3CalmCalmSE4Calm--CalmSW6W9W7--SW5
2 days agoNW10W10
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------SW12--S10--SE10S5SE8S8--3SW3S3W7
G16
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NW4W5W7W10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tucson, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.