Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rillito, AZ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:21PM Thursday December 12, 2019 12:07 PM MST (19:07 UTC) Moonrise 6:02PMMoonset 7:39AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rillito, AZ
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location: 32.34, -111.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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FXUS65 KTWC 121035 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 335 AM MST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. Dry conditions and a warming trend will prevail through Saturday. A weather system moving north of the area may bring isolated showers to the White Mountains Sunday into Sunday evening. Behind the departing system, expect dry conditions but cooler temperatures early next week. Slightly warmer temperatures will return next Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION. High pressure aloft was centered west of northern Baja California near 25N/135W with a ridge axis extending eastward to the Baja California Spur early this morning. The upper high will expand northeastward briefly into the southwestern CONUS by midday Friday. Some cirriform clouds should across the area today, but clear skies to prevail tonight and Friday with perhaps just a few thin cirrus at times.

A fairly fast zonal flow aloft regime will occur Saturday ahead of a shortwave trough moving southeastward toward the Pacific Northwest. The shortwave trough is progged via various 12/00Z models to move southeastward toward the Four Corners region Sunday. Expect dry conditions to continue Saturday ahead of this approaching system. Isolated to perhaps scattered rain and snow showers are forecast to occur Sunday into Sunday evening across the White Mountains. Liquid amounts will be quite light, with just a few hundredths of an inch likely confined to the highest peaks. Some westerly to northwesterly breezes may also occur Sunday afternoon especially east of Tucson.

Dry conditions will occur areawide late Sunday night into Monday as northwesterly flow aloft prevails in response to high pressure aloft building near the West Coast. The GFS/GEFS and ECMWF/ECENS were fairly similar with depicting an upper ridge to extend from southern California northward into the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. The flow aloft next Wednesday should become southwesterly as the upper ridge moves east of the area, and an upper trough deepens west of the southern California/northern Baja California coasts. This pattern will maintain precip-free conditions across southeast Arizona next Tuesday into Wednesday. However, some locally gusty easterly winds may occur at times Tuesday into Wednesday in response to a somewhat tight surface pressure gradient.

Although beyond the scope of this forecast package, the potential exists for at least a slight chance showers and high elevation snow showers perhaps as early as Thursday as per the GFS, and as late as Friday as per the ECMWF. The GFS/GEFS and ECMWF/ECENS suggest that the bulk of heavier precip would favor locales southeast to south of the area. Given the time period mentioned (Days 8-9), uncertainty is quite high as of this writing regarding timing and potential liquid amounts and snow accumulations.

At any rate, high temperatures this afternoon will be quite similar to temps achieved Wednesday from Tucson westward, but will be several degrees warmer versus Wednesday across eastern sections. Expect 3-7 degrees of warming Friday followed by no significant change in high temps Saturday. A cooling trend is on tap Sunday into Monday. Although morning lows Monday and Tuesday will also be cooler versus weekend morning lows, these forecast temps will only be generally just a few degrees below seasonal normals. After the chillier feeling early Tuesday morning low temps, a very modest warming trend should prevail Tuesday into Wednesday.

AVIATION. Valid through 13/12Z. Clear skies early this morning becoming few to broken clouds above 25k ft MSL late this morning and this afternoon. Decreasing clouds this evening with mainly SKC conditions by end of period. Surface wind variable in direction under 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER. Dry conditions with a warming trend through Saturday. A weather system moving across the Four Corners region will some breeziness Sunday, and may produce isolated rain and snow showers across the White Mountains. Dry conditions areawide early next week but with cooler temperatures. Locally gusty east winds may occur Tuesday into early Wednesday of next week.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.



DISCUSSION . Francis AVIATION . Michael FIRE WEATHER . Michael

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tucson Ryan Field Airport, AZ14 mi82 minE 410.00 miFair55°F39°F55%1025.4 hPa
Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, AZ18 mi69 minN 010.00 miFair57°F38°F50%1023.2 hPa
Tucson, Tucson International Airport, AZ19 mi2.2 hrsSSE 610.00 miFair52°F35°F53%1023.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDMA

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Last 24hrS3E4CalmCalmCalmNW7NW3CalmCalmSE4SE5--SE6E7SE9E8SE7E9SE7SE4CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmW3CalmNW4N6NW6NW9W6--S3E3E7E11E13E12E9E13E15E11E12SE13SE16SE11E9
2 days agoCalmE3CalmS3S3CalmSW3CalmCalmW3SW3CalmCalmCalmW5CalmSE3SE3CalmNE3E3E3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tucson, AZ
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.