Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rillito, AZ
November 5, 2024 12:26 PM MST (19:26 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:45 AM Sunset 5:32 PM Moonrise 10:50 AM Moonset 8:29 PM |
NEW! Add second zone forecast
FXUS65 KTWC 050903 AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 203 AM MST Tue Nov 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
Temperatures warm a few degrees over the next two days, however remain unseasonably cool. Then well below normal temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday as a weather system arrives from the north. This system will be generally drier with most rain and high elevation snow chances confined to the White Mountains and eastern areas of southeastern Arizona. Breezy conditions are expected ahead of this system Wednesday as well as Thursday.
DISCUSSION
Skies are clear across the CWA with temperatures generally in the 30s and 40s. As temps continue to dip tonight expect lows below freezing in the Sulphur Springs Valley and around freezing for areas south and east of Tucson.
Water vapor imagery shows this past weekend's trough in the Great Plains, another trough over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies, and high pressure over the eastern Pacific. The upper pattern stays progressive as models bring the Pacific Northwest low south through Utah and into Arizona. As this happens the low deepens and becomes closed Wednesday into Thursday with a positive tilt. Moisture will be in short supply with this system and mostly confined to areas north and east of Tucson thanks to its inland trajectory. This and the orientation of the trough will keep precip chances mainly in the White Mountains and areas east of U.S. Hwy 191. The best chances will be in the White Mountains where PoPs are around 60 percent Wednesday evening into Thursday.
QPF will be light, generally less than 0.1" in the lower elevations with snow totals 1"-4" above 7000 feet in the White Mountains. NBM probabilities for event total snow greater than 6 inches are around 15 percent, so at this time don't think any winter headlines will be necessary.
This low will also bring breezy winds Wednesday and Thursday with the strongest winds expected along the international border.
High temperatures today and Wednesday will be about 5-8 degrees below normal then cool significantly Thursday and Friday. Highs will be 12-18 degrees below normal both days. Low temperatures Friday morning will likely be the coldest of the season so far. In the Tucson metro expect temperatures in the mid to upper 30s.
Some areas of the metro such as Green Valley and Catalina and other normally cold areas could briefly hit freezing. East of Tucson the Sulphur Springs Valley will see lows in the low 20s with isolated areas possibly in the upper teens.
This weekend ensembles show brief ridging Saturday in the wake of the trough, then a weak shortwave moving through Sunday into Monday. This will allow temperatures to warm over the weekend becoming around normal Sunday into Monday.
AVIATION
Valid through 06/12Z.
SKC today with high clouds beginning to move in from the north during the last 6 hours of the period. Sfc winds less than 8 kts and variable in direction this morning. Winds become west/northwest this afternoon and early evening 5-10 kts, then variable and less than 8 kts again. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
FIRE WEATHER
Below normal temperatures remain through the work week. Minimum relative humidities through Wednesday will be in the 15 to 25 percent range in lower elevations and 25 to 35 percent in the higher elevations. Light winds are expected Tuesday, then an approaching system will bring breezy winds Wednesday and Thursday. Strongest winds will be along the international border. Chances for showers and high elevation snow will be mainly confined to the White Mountains and eastern zones Wednesday evening into Thursday. After well below normal temperatures through Saturday morning, temperatures moderate by late this weekend.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 203 AM MST Tue Nov 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
Temperatures warm a few degrees over the next two days, however remain unseasonably cool. Then well below normal temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday as a weather system arrives from the north. This system will be generally drier with most rain and high elevation snow chances confined to the White Mountains and eastern areas of southeastern Arizona. Breezy conditions are expected ahead of this system Wednesday as well as Thursday.
DISCUSSION
Skies are clear across the CWA with temperatures generally in the 30s and 40s. As temps continue to dip tonight expect lows below freezing in the Sulphur Springs Valley and around freezing for areas south and east of Tucson.
Water vapor imagery shows this past weekend's trough in the Great Plains, another trough over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies, and high pressure over the eastern Pacific. The upper pattern stays progressive as models bring the Pacific Northwest low south through Utah and into Arizona. As this happens the low deepens and becomes closed Wednesday into Thursday with a positive tilt. Moisture will be in short supply with this system and mostly confined to areas north and east of Tucson thanks to its inland trajectory. This and the orientation of the trough will keep precip chances mainly in the White Mountains and areas east of U.S. Hwy 191. The best chances will be in the White Mountains where PoPs are around 60 percent Wednesday evening into Thursday.
QPF will be light, generally less than 0.1" in the lower elevations with snow totals 1"-4" above 7000 feet in the White Mountains. NBM probabilities for event total snow greater than 6 inches are around 15 percent, so at this time don't think any winter headlines will be necessary.
This low will also bring breezy winds Wednesday and Thursday with the strongest winds expected along the international border.
High temperatures today and Wednesday will be about 5-8 degrees below normal then cool significantly Thursday and Friday. Highs will be 12-18 degrees below normal both days. Low temperatures Friday morning will likely be the coldest of the season so far. In the Tucson metro expect temperatures in the mid to upper 30s.
Some areas of the metro such as Green Valley and Catalina and other normally cold areas could briefly hit freezing. East of Tucson the Sulphur Springs Valley will see lows in the low 20s with isolated areas possibly in the upper teens.
This weekend ensembles show brief ridging Saturday in the wake of the trough, then a weak shortwave moving through Sunday into Monday. This will allow temperatures to warm over the weekend becoming around normal Sunday into Monday.
AVIATION
Valid through 06/12Z.
SKC today with high clouds beginning to move in from the north during the last 6 hours of the period. Sfc winds less than 8 kts and variable in direction this morning. Winds become west/northwest this afternoon and early evening 5-10 kts, then variable and less than 8 kts again. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
FIRE WEATHER
Below normal temperatures remain through the work week. Minimum relative humidities through Wednesday will be in the 15 to 25 percent range in lower elevations and 25 to 35 percent in the higher elevations. Light winds are expected Tuesday, then an approaching system will bring breezy winds Wednesday and Thursday. Strongest winds will be along the international border. Chances for showers and high elevation snow will be mainly confined to the White Mountains and eastern zones Wednesday evening into Thursday. After well below normal temperatures through Saturday morning, temperatures moderate by late this weekend.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Air | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KAVQ MARANA RGNL,AZ | 6 sm | 11 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 64°F | 36°F | 34% | 29.97 | |
KRYN RYAN FIELD,AZ | 14 sm | 41 min | E 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 64°F | 32°F | 30% | 29.99 | |
KMZJ PINAL AIRPARK,AZ | 15 sm | 11 min | var 03 | 10 sm | Clear | 64°F | 37°F | 37% | 29.99 | |
KDMA DAVIS MONTHAN AFB,AZ | 19 sm | 31 min | S 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 64°F | 28°F | 26% | 29.97 | |
KTUS TUCSON INTL,AZ | 19 sm | 33 min | SSE 03 | 10 sm | Clear | 63°F | 37°F | 39% | 30.01 |
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KDMA
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KDMA
Wind History Graph: DMA
(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of Southwest
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Tucson, AZ,
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