Sunrise 5:42 AM   Sunset 7:03 PM Moonrise 9:06 PM   Moonset 6:30 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS65 KTWC 252022 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 122 PM MST Thu Apr 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
Weather systems passing north of our area will bring strong gusty winds the last half of the week. Precip chances should generally stay north of the area, but temperatures will fall below average today into Saturday. High pressure with a rapid warming trend will push temperatures back to well above average again by Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION
A weakening impulse from the eastern Pacific is bringing gusty winds and cooler air to the area today. A stronger system will dig into the new mean trough position across the Great Basin over the next couple of days. Again, moisture fields are lacking this far south but we could see a few showers in Graham and Greenlee counties northeast of Tucson on Saturday, especially near the mountains. Windy conditions will continue Friday and Saturday, with Friday being the most widespread. We may approach advisory levels in a few wind prone locations. Saturday's strongest winds will be across eastern areas as the main low lifts into the front range.

Temperatures will run 5 to 10 degrees below average into Saturday before high pressure brings a rapid warming trend early next week.
Back to around 5 to 10 degrees above average by Tuesday. As the flow consolidates through northern tier states, we may see poor ridge geometry next week. Heights and thicknesses still above average, but probably not excessive.

AVIATION
Valid through 27/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds at 7k-10k ft AGL. SWLY/WLY SFC wind 15-25 kts and gusts to 25-35 kts until 26/02Z, then winds diminishing overnight.
Increasing winds again after 26/17Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
A weather system will move north of the area today, dropping temperatures below normal and increasing wind speeds.
Wind speeds will be near critical levels over portions of Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties. Another weather system will move across the area Friday night and Saturday, resulting in even cooler temperatures and highs 5-10 degrees below normal Saturday, as well as strong winds areawide. This system will also bring a chance of showers mainly north/northeast of Safford on Saturday and maybe even a few lighting strikes Saturday afternoon. Min RH values in the valleys will be in the 12-20 percent through Saturday, decreasing into the single digits early next week. Min RH values in the mountains will be in the 25-40 percent range through Saturday, lowering to 10-20 percent early next week.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Tucson, AZ,