Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 5:28AM||Sunset 7:33PM||Wednesday July 17, 2019 1:20 AM MST (08:20 UTC)||Moonrise 8:24PM||Moonset 6:05AM||Illumination 100%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rillito, AZHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus65 ktwc 170406|
area forecast discussion
national weather service tucson az
906 pm mst Tue jul 16 2019
Synopsis After another hot day across much of the area this
afternoon, a few showers will linger overnight. A better flow
regime will likely increase thunderstorm coverage Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Scattered mainly afternoon and
evening thunderstorms with temperatures returning to near normal
Thursday into early next week.
Discussion We tied a record in tucson with 110 today. Weakening
high pressure and increasing moisture is still expected to tamp
that down several degrees Wednesday afternoon. We're already
seeing increasing moisture from both the northern gulf of
california (surface dew points in the mid to upper 50s pushing
into western pima county) and strong outflow from organized
convection south of the border in sonora. This will set the stage
for an organized thunderstorm complex in far northern sonora,
creeping into portions of santa cruz and the southern half of
cochise county tomorrow afternoon. That would subsequently
increase storm chances further north and west by late in the
afternoon and early evening (probably including tucson). Our
current forecast handles this pretty well. Modest update earlier
to show the decreasing activity after 03z this evening, otherwise
things look on track. Heavy rainers a concern tomorrow afternoon
and evening night. Please see the previous discussion below for
Aviation Valid through 18 06z.
Diminishing -shra overnight with partial clearing. Some outflow
possible from convection south of the border overnight, otherwise
normal diurnal trends. Surface wind Wednesday afternoon swly-
nwly 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts. Storm and shower chances
increase tomorrow afternoon along with increased cloud cover.
These will be accompanied by strong erratic outflow winds.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
Fire weather Increased moisture and a better flow regime
should enhance thunderstorm coverage Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night. Thereafter, scattered mainly afternoon and
evening thunderstorms Thursday into early next week. Expect brief
strong, gusty and erratic winds near thunderstorms. Otherwise,|
20-foot winds will be mainly under 15 mph.
Climate Tucson international airport tied a record today with
110 (2003). It was also the first 110 of the year.
Prev discussion Another very hot day across southeast arizona
with an excessive heat warning in effect through 8 pm mst this
evening across parts of southeast arizona. Upper air plots this
morning placed upper high over the new mexico boot with weak south
to southwest flow aloft over the area. Pw values are slightly
down versus 24 hours ago with values ranging from 0.90" to 1.30"
with highest values along the international border with even
higher values across sonora mexico. Radar was showing widely
scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain south and east of
tucson. Best area for storms, per latest high resolution models,
will be across santa cruz and southern cochise county, especially
from the patagonia mountains to the mule mountains, with brief
heavy rain, hail and strong gusty winds being the main concerns.
Tucson may see some weak storms move across the metro area, thanks
to outflows from the south southeast, between 4 and 7 pm.
High resolution models suggesting a gulf surge overnight into
Wednesday. Normally there is a one day delay for widespread
convection, but the models are suggesting that areas south of a
sells to tucson to willcox line will see scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon into the evening
hours where a nice 700 mb theta-e ridge is forecast to be. Pw
values are forecast to be between 1" and 1.60" with highest values
from tucson south. So main threat with storms tomorrow will be
wet microbursts, especially south of tucson. Could easily see very
localized rainfall rates of 1"-2" across eastern santa cruz and
southwest cochise counties. Wpc has the southern portions of the
forecast area under a marginal ero, excessive rainfall outlook,
tomorrow afternoon and evening. Not as hot tomorrow thanks to the
Scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms with near
normal temperatures to prevail Thursday into early next week.
Twc watches warnings advisories
visit us on facebook... Twitter... Youtube... And at weather.Gov tucson
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|Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, AZ||18 mi||82 min||SSE 6||10.00 mi||Fair||85°F||58°F||40%||1013.5 hPa|
|Tucson, Tucson International Airport, AZ||19 mi||27 min||SSE 5||10.00 mi||Fair||86°F||60°F||42%||1007.4 hPa|
Wind History from DMA (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||S||SE||Calm||Calm||SE||SE||SE||S||W||W||NW||N||NW|
|2 days ago||SE||SE||SE||E||SE||SE||Calm||Calm||W||NW||W|
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Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (4,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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