Tuesday, July14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rillito, AZ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:27AMSunset 7:34PM Tuesday July 14, 2020 4:00 PM MST (23:00 UTC) Moonrise 12:54AMMoonset 2:13PM Illumination 29% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rillito, AZ
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location: 32.34, -111.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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FXUS65 KTWC 142221 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 320 PM MST Tue Jul 14 2020

SYNOPSIS. Isolated thunderstorms into tonight favoring southeast of Tucson and across the White Mountains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will prevail Wednesday into early next week especially during afternoon and evening hours. Hotter than normal high temperatures through Thursday with daytime temperatures closer to seasonal normals this weekend.

DISCUSSION. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring as of this writing generally east of a line from just east of Oracle to just east of Green Valley. A few thunderstorms have potentially approached severe thresholds and least via radar signatures. A trained spotter reported a few medium sized mesquite branches were snapped from a severe thunderstorm near St. David around 230 pm MST.

At any rate, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening east of Tucson. Various high-res solutions suggest that the bulk of showers/tstms should end around midnight. However, have opted to maintain isolated showers/tstms late tonight (i.e. 06Z-12Z Wed) for portions of Cochise County.

Strong high pressure aloft on Wednesday is progged to be centered over north Texas, and a low amplitude upper trough is also progged to be over California. The models depict a more-southerly mid-level steering flow Wednesday afternoon versus the southwesterly flow today. As such, the coverage of showers/tstms Wednesday afternoon/ evening should be slightly further west to include more of the Tucson metro area. Thus, scattered showers/tstms Wednesday afternoon and evening mainly from Tucson eastward and southward with precip- free conditions across western Pima County and south central Pinal County.

Thereafter, not much change of significance to the inherited precip chances from Thursday into early next week. The GFS/GEFS in particular, and the 14/12Z ECMWF/ECENS to a somewhat lesser extent, depict a more-favorable easterly mid-level flow regime for shower/ thunderstorm development and migration will prevail. There are some differences among the solutions in the easterly component depending upon a given day or nighttime period (some periods southeasterly, some periods northeasterly). Have also noted that the GFS generally is more robust with precip chances and model-generated rain amounts versus the ECMWF, which has been the case during the past few weeks.

The upshot, the official forecast Thursday through next Tuesday continues with scattered showers/tstms across much of this forecast area especially during the afternoon/evening hours. Given some hints at easterly waves around next Monday (GFS) and next Tuesday (ECMWF), would not be surprised that showers/tstms will prevail well into the late night/early morning hours during this forecast period. Given the progged flow and available moisture, as well as potential easterly waves or from MCS development near the area, the late night/ early morning scenario of showers/tstms may happen at least a few times during this forecast period. The timing of this scenario is not clear as of this writing, however.

Forecast high temps Wednesday and Thursday will range at a few to several degrees above normal depending upon location. Daytime temps Friday into Tuesday will mostly trend closer to seasonal normals, particularly early next week.

AVIATION. Valid through 16/00Z. FEW-SCT clouds 10-15k ft MSL from KTUS eastward with another SCT-BKN cloud deck 20k-25k ft MSL this evening into Wednesday. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA into this evening S to SE of KTUS and across the White Mountains NE of KSAD. Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA may occur late tonight (06Z-12Z Wednesday) southeast of KTUS, and particularly near KDUG and KFHU. Scattered -TSRA/-SHRA KTUS vicinity ewd/swd Wednesday afternoon. Gusty outflow winds will be possible near -TSRA. Outside of gusty outflows, SFC winds will be WLY/NWLY 8-12 kts with a few gusts around 20 kts this afternoon. Winds diminish after sunset becoming variable less than 10 kts then increasing again Wednesday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER. Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon/evening through the forecast period. Conditions are slightly less favorable today, with storms mainly southeast of Tucson and over the White Mountains. Activity looks to increase Wednesday with the best chances from Tucson eastward. Then Thursday into early next week expect scattered thunderstorms for most of southeast Arizona mainly in the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will ease back to slightly above normal levels by Friday. Relative humidities will be 15-30 pct through the week with generally good overnight recoveries. 20-ft winds generally remain less than 15 mph with some afternoon gustiness, although today will be breezier across the Upper Gila River Valley. Also, any afternoon/ evening thunderstorms will capable of gusts to 45 mph or higher.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.



DISCUSSION . Francis AVIATION . Hardin FIRE WEATHER . Hardin

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tucson Ryan Field Airport, AZ14 mi76 minSSW 12 G 1710.00 miFair104°F48°F15%1012.9 hPa
Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, AZ18 mi63 minNE 410.00 miA Few Clouds104°F52°F18%1007.4 hPa
Tucson, Tucson International Airport, AZ19 mi68 minWSW 5 G 1810.00 miA Few Clouds105°F46°F14%1007.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDMA

Wind History from DMA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7W8
G15
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G18
W4W5CalmS6SE11SE11SE11SE9E4E5SE4S6SW6CalmCalmN5NW8N5
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1 day agoS13
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W4W10W5NW4W8SW9SW10E4N4S7CalmS6N3S4S3NW4SW8NW7W4NW5W11
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2 days agoW10NW13
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N14
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G49
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S7SE10NE6S6SE7SE4NE3E4S5SE3CalmNE5CalmNE6N7NW9N10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tucson, AZ
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.