Wednesday, February19, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rillito, AZ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 6:15PM Wednesday February 19, 2020 6:33 AM MST (13:33 UTC) Moonrise 4:31AMMoonset 2:45PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rillito, AZ
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location: 32.34, -111.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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FXUS65 KTWC 191035 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 335 AM MST Wed Feb 19 2020

SYNOPSIS. Dry conditions with above normal daytime temperatures through Thursday. There is a slight chance of showers Friday afternoon mainly east of Tucson. A low pressure system will then bring widespread showers Friday night into Saturday. Showers ending Saturday night followed by dry conditions Sunday into next Tuesday.

DISCUSSION. IR satellite imagery depicted mainly cirriform clouds extending from southern Arizona southward across Sonora Mexico, and southwestward to well west of Baja California. Mostly cloudy to cloud skies this morning, then clearing from west-to-east this afternoon and westerly flow aloft shunts the bulk of clouds east of this forecast area. Clear skies to prevail across much of the area tonight into Thursday morning ahead of an upper ridge axis approaching from the west. Mainly cirriform clouds will increase from the southwest Thursday afternoon as the upper ridge axis moves eastward, and in response to low pressure aloft becoming centered west of the northern California coast.

The 19/00Z GFS/GEFS and ECMWF/ECENS were in good agreement with moving the upper low southeastward and closer to the southern California coast by Friday evening. Although clouds will increase across the area Thursday night into Friday morning, the various models maintain precip-free conditions. Thereafter, isolated showers should develop Friday afternoon, especially east to south of Tucson.

The upper low is progged to move eastward into southern California by midday Saturday. Moisture will increase markedly ahead of this system, as evidenced via model precip water values exceeding one inch by Saturday morning, especially from Tucson westward into the western deserts. Dewpoints generally in the 30s Friday are forecast to increase into the 40s and lower 50s across the area by daybreak Saturday.

Based on the various 19/00Z models and guidance, and per coordination with neighboring WFO's, precip chances were raised somewhat substantially Friday into Saturday versus earlier forecasts. Given the expected warm air advection ahead of this system, snow levels were also raised, and this markedly reduced total snow accumulations versus previous forecasts.

At any rate, the official forecast depicts scattered showers across much of the area Friday evening followed by widespread showers late Friday night into Saturday morning. Showers are expected to end across western sections early Saturday afternoon, but scattered to numerous showers will prevail elsewhere. Showers should decrease from southwest-to-northeast late Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening as the the upper low moves toward the Four Corners region. A few lingering showers may continue late Saturday night mainly across the White Mountains before dry conditions return area-wide Sunday morning.

Given the 19/00Z models and per coordination with WPC, the event total rainfall amounts have also increased. Thus, valley rainfall amounts are now projected to generally range from 0.10" - 0.50", although isolated amounts to near 0.75" may occur. Mountain liquid amounts of 0.25" - 1.00" should generally prevail, although isolated amounts up to 1.50" may also be achieved, especially across the highest peaks of the White Mountains, Mount Graham, and the Catalina Mountains. The event total snow accumulations have been lowered in the range of 1-3 inches across the highest peaks of the White Mountains and Mount Graham. Thus, the forecast snow accumulations with this system should be minimized or downplayed.

Dry conditions are expected to prevail Sunday into next Tuesday under generally northwesterly flow aloft. Have noted that the 19/00Z GFS depicts a 542 dm closed low to be centered over northwest New Mexico next Tuesday. However, have also noted the 19/06Z GFS was trending closer to the 19/00Z ECMWF which depicted a broad albeit markedly less amplified upper trough well northeast of this area. For now, the 19/00Z GFS upper low scenario encroaching upon eastern sections is discounted.

High temperatures this afternoon will be quite close to temps achieved Tuesday, and will range about 5-10 degrees above normal. Expect a few degrees of warming on Thursday, and afternoon highs may reach 80 degrees in the Tucson metro area, and perhaps into the low 80s across the western deserts. Cooler temperatures will occur Friday and especially this weekend in response to the passing system. Warmer temperatures are on tap next Monday.

AVIATION. Valid through 20/12Z. Expect BKN-OVC cirrus this morning then clearing from west-to-east this afternoon. Mainly SKC across much of southeast AZ tonight into Thursday morning. Surface wind variable in direction under 12 kts except this afternoon when occasional west to northwest gusts near 15 kts may occur. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER. Dry conditions with above normal daytime temperatures through Thursday. Isolated showers are expected to develop Friday afternoon mainly east of Tucson. Widespread showers will then prevail Friday night into Saturday as a low pressure system moves across the area. Dry conditions with temperatures closer to seasonal normals Sunday into next Tuesday. 20-foot winds will be terrain driven under 15 mph through Thursday. Expect gusty east to southeast winds especially in favored wind prone areas Thursday evening into Friday. Some gusty southwest winds may also occur Saturday with the passing system. Less wind is on tap Sunday into Monday, then elevated northwest winds may occur next Tuesday.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.



DISCUSSION . Francis AVIATION . Michael FIRE WEATHER . Michael

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tucson Ryan Field Airport, AZ14 mi49 minE 610.00 miFair46°F37°F71%1016.6 hPa
Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, AZ18 mi96 minESE 410.00 miFair51°F35°F56%1013 hPa
Tucson, Tucson International Airport, AZ19 mi41 minSE 410.00 miFair51°F34°F52%1014 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDMA

Wind History from DMA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--SE8E7SE7CalmCalmCalmCalmW5W5W3W6NW6NW6W6W5CalmE5E9SE4E9SE7E7E4
1 day agoSE7E5SE8E4E4CalmSW5NW5NW4NW5NW4W7W10W7W4--S4SE8SE8E7SE7SE4SE7SE8
2 days agoSE9S3CalmSE7SE3CalmNW3CalmN3NW3NW7NW8--NW3SW3CalmSE5E5SE6E8E8E5SE7E4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tucson, AZ
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.