Wednesday, July17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rillito, AZ

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:28AMSunset 7:33PM Wednesday July 17, 2019 1:20 AM MST (08:20 UTC) Moonrise 8:24PMMoonset 6:05AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rillito, AZ
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location: 32.34, -111.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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Fxus65 ktwc 170406
afdtwc
area forecast discussion
national weather service tucson az
906 pm mst Tue jul 16 2019

Synopsis After another hot day across much of the area this
afternoon, a few showers will linger overnight. A better flow
regime will likely increase thunderstorm coverage Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Scattered mainly afternoon and
evening thunderstorms with temperatures returning to near normal
Thursday into early next week.

Discussion We tied a record in tucson with 110 today. Weakening
high pressure and increasing moisture is still expected to tamp
that down several degrees Wednesday afternoon. We're already
seeing increasing moisture from both the northern gulf of
california (surface dew points in the mid to upper 50s pushing
into western pima county) and strong outflow from organized
convection south of the border in sonora. This will set the stage
for an organized thunderstorm complex in far northern sonora,
creeping into portions of santa cruz and the southern half of
cochise county tomorrow afternoon. That would subsequently
increase storm chances further north and west by late in the
afternoon and early evening (probably including tucson). Our
current forecast handles this pretty well. Modest update earlier
to show the decreasing activity after 03z this evening, otherwise
things look on track. Heavy rainers a concern tomorrow afternoon
and evening night. Please see the previous discussion below for
additional details.

Aviation Valid through 18 06z.

Diminishing -shra overnight with partial clearing. Some outflow
possible from convection south of the border overnight, otherwise
normal diurnal trends. Surface wind Wednesday afternoon swly-
nwly 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts. Storm and shower chances
increase tomorrow afternoon along with increased cloud cover.

These will be accompanied by strong erratic outflow winds.

Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

Fire weather Increased moisture and a better flow regime
should enhance thunderstorm coverage Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night. Thereafter, scattered mainly afternoon and
evening thunderstorms Thursday into early next week. Expect brief
strong, gusty and erratic winds near thunderstorms. Otherwise,
20-foot winds will be mainly under 15 mph.

Climate Tucson international airport tied a record today with
110 (2003). It was also the first 110 of the year.

Prev discussion Another very hot day across southeast arizona
with an excessive heat warning in effect through 8 pm mst this
evening across parts of southeast arizona. Upper air plots this
morning placed upper high over the new mexico boot with weak south
to southwest flow aloft over the area. Pw values are slightly
down versus 24 hours ago with values ranging from 0.90" to 1.30"
with highest values along the international border with even
higher values across sonora mexico. Radar was showing widely
scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain south and east of
tucson. Best area for storms, per latest high resolution models,
will be across santa cruz and southern cochise county, especially
from the patagonia mountains to the mule mountains, with brief
heavy rain, hail and strong gusty winds being the main concerns.

Tucson may see some weak storms move across the metro area, thanks
to outflows from the south southeast, between 4 and 7 pm.

High resolution models suggesting a gulf surge overnight into
Wednesday. Normally there is a one day delay for widespread
convection, but the models are suggesting that areas south of a
sells to tucson to willcox line will see scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon into the evening
hours where a nice 700 mb theta-e ridge is forecast to be. Pw
values are forecast to be between 1" and 1.60" with highest values
from tucson south. So main threat with storms tomorrow will be
wet microbursts, especially south of tucson. Could easily see very
localized rainfall rates of 1"-2" across eastern santa cruz and
southwest cochise counties. Wpc has the southern portions of the
forecast area under a marginal ero, excessive rainfall outlook,
tomorrow afternoon and evening. Not as hot tomorrow thanks to the
added moisture.

Scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms with near
normal temperatures to prevail Thursday into early next week.

Twc watches warnings advisories
None.

Meyer g
visit us on facebook... Twitter... Youtube... And at weather.Gov tucson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, AZ18 mi82 minSSE 610.00 miFair85°F58°F40%1013.5 hPa
Tucson, Tucson International Airport, AZ19 mi27 minSSE 510.00 miFair86°F60°F42%1007.4 hPa

Wind History from DMA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5S3SE5SE7SE7SE8S8S6CalmW3W6NW4
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NE10E3SW6CalmS4CalmSE6Calm
1 day agoS4SE3CalmCalmSE3SE7SE6S3W4W6NW8N6NW8
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2 days agoSE6SE8SE7E5SE5SE6CalmCalmW4NW8W7
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NW6S10SE14S4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tucson, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.