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Marine Weather and Tides Rillito, AZ Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 7:02AM

Sunset 6:15PM

Wednesday February 19, 2020 6:33 AM MST (13:33 UTC)

Moonrise 4:31AM

Moonset 2:45PM

Illumination 18%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rillito, AZ

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Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 191035 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 335 AM MST Wed Feb 19 2020

SYNOPSIS. Dry conditions with above normal daytime temperatures through Thursday. There is a slight chance of showers Friday afternoon mainly east of Tucson. A low pressure system will then bring widespread showers Friday night into Saturday. Showers ending Saturday night followed by dry conditions Sunday into next Tuesday.

DISCUSSION. IR satellite imagery depicted mainly cirriform clouds extending from southern Arizona southward across Sonora Mexico, and southwestward to well west of Baja California. Mostly cloudy to cloud skies this morning, then clearing from west-to-east this afternoon and westerly flow aloft shunts the bulk of clouds east of this forecast area. Clear skies to prevail across much of the area tonight into Thursday morning ahead of an upper ridge axis approaching from the west. Mainly cirriform clouds will increase from the southwest Thursday afternoon as the upper ridge axis moves eastward, and in response to low pressure aloft becoming centered west of the northern California coast.

The 19/00Z GFS/GEFS and ECMWF/ECENS were in good agreement with moving the upper low southeastward and closer to the southern California coast by Friday evening. Although clouds will increase across the area Thursday night into Friday morning, the various models maintain precip-free conditions. Thereafter, isolated showers should develop Friday afternoon, especially east to south of Tucson.

The upper low is progged to move eastward into southern California by midday Saturday. Moisture will increase markedly ahead of this system, as evidenced via model precip water values exceeding one inch by Saturday morning, especially from Tucson westward into the western deserts. Dewpoints generally in the 30s Friday are forecast to increase into the 40s and lower 50s across the area by daybreak Saturday.

Based on the various 19/00Z models and guidance, and per coordination with neighboring WFO's, precip chances were raised somewhat substantially Friday into Saturday versus earlier forecasts. Given the expected warm air advection ahead of this system, snow levels were also raised, and this markedly reduced total snow accumulations versus previous forecasts.

At any rate, the official forecast depicts scattered showers across much of the area Friday evening followed by widespread showers late Friday night into Saturday morning. Showers are expected to end across western sections early Saturday afternoon, but scattered to numerous showers will prevail elsewhere. Showers should decrease from southwest-to-northeast late Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening as the the upper low moves toward the Four Corners region. A few lingering showers may continue late Saturday night mainly across the White Mountains before dry conditions return area-wide Sunday morning.

Given the 19/00Z models and per coordination with WPC, the event total rainfall amounts have also increased. Thus, valley rainfall amounts are now projected to generally range from 0.10" - 0.50", although isolated amounts to near 0.75" may occur. Mountain liquid amounts of 0.25" - 1.00" should generally prevail, although isolated amounts up to 1.50" may also be achieved, especially across the highest peaks of the White Mountains, Mount Graham, and the Catalina Mountains. The event total snow accumulations have been lowered in the range of 1-3 inches across the highest peaks of the White Mountains and Mount Graham. Thus, the forecast snow accumulations with this system should be minimized or downplayed.

Dry conditions are expected to prevail Sunday into next Tuesday under generally northwesterly flow aloft. Have noted that the 19/00Z GFS depicts a 542 dm closed low to be centered over northwest New Mexico next Tuesday. However, have also noted the 19/06Z GFS was trending closer to the 19/00Z ECMWF which depicted a broad albeit markedly less amplified upper trough well northeast of this area. For now, the 19/00Z GFS upper low scenario encroaching upon eastern sections is discounted.

High temperatures this afternoon will be quite close to temps achieved Tuesday, and will range about 5-10 degrees above normal. Expect a few degrees of warming on Thursday, and afternoon highs may reach 80 degrees in the Tucson metro area, and perhaps into the low 80s across the western deserts. Cooler temperatures will occur Friday and especially this weekend in response to the passing system. Warmer temperatures are on tap next Monday.

AVIATION. Valid through 20/12Z. Expect BKN-OVC cirrus this morning then clearing from west-to-east this afternoon. Mainly SKC across much of southeast AZ tonight into Thursday morning. Surface wind variable in direction under 12 kts except this afternoon when occasional west to northwest gusts near 15 kts may occur. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER. Dry conditions with above normal daytime temperatures through Thursday. Isolated showers are expected to develop Friday afternoon mainly east of Tucson. Widespread showers will then prevail Friday night into Saturday as a low pressure system moves across the area. Dry conditions with temperatures closer to seasonal normals Sunday into next Tuesday. 20-foot winds will be terrain driven under 15 mph through Thursday. Expect gusty east to southeast winds especially in favored wind prone areas Thursday evening into Friday. Some gusty southwest winds may also occur Saturday with the passing system. Less wind is on tap Sunday into Monday, then elevated northwest winds may occur next Tuesday.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.



DISCUSSION . Francis AVIATION . Michael FIRE WEATHER . Michael

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Tucson Ryan Field Airport, AZ	14 mi	49 min	E 6	10.00 mi	Fair	46°F	37°F	71%	1016.6 hPa
Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, AZ	18 mi	96 min	ESE 4	10.00 mi	Fair	51°F	35°F	56%	1013 hPa
Tucson, Tucson International Airport, AZ	19 mi	41 min	SE 4	10.00 mi	Fair	51°F	34°F	52%	1014 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDMA

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (8,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Tucson, AZ

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