NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS64 KJAN 090501 AAA AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1101 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

New AVIATION

MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 947 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Local radars had a few light showers over the northeast portions of the CWA with little if any elsewhere. Back northwest of the ArkLaTex more vigorous convection was firing up. This activity wl stay to our northwest the remainder of the night but models still maintain some additional convection in our west after midnight that may involve a rumble or two due to some elevated instability.
Otherwise, it won't be as cold tonight as waa increases ahead of the approaching low pressure system that will bring greater chances for rain tomorrow. Temperatures were not cooling as fast in the east as anticipated but morning lows still look achievable.
/22/

DISCUSSION
Issued at 234 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Tonight through next Thursday...

Tonight through Sunday: As the shortwave trough ejects east- northeast, attention begins to turn to more robust mean-longwave trough along & west of the MS River Valley. 90-120kt jet/increased forcing/PVA of the strong spoke of energy is progged to round the trough axis. Mean ridge axis will be amplifying over the northeast, western Atlantic & subtropical ridge across the southwestern Atlantic. The combination of the anomalous upper jet & deepening subtropical ridge/mean ridge axis will help drive a deeply amplified synoptic pattern. Cold core low over the northern Plains to Great Lakes will only help strong ascent to occur in these areas. 1003mb sfc low across the central Plains is progged to move across the mid-West to Great Lakes by Saturday morning & deepen to <995mb over south-central Canada through Saturday aftn.
Expect a strong cold front to shift east-southeast across the Great Plains-Mid West to ArkLaTex by daybreak Saturday & sweep across the region Saturday evening to overnight hours. Strong WAA & increased gradient winds are expected as this frontal system moves through, but some of the later timing should limit some of the highest gradient wind potential. Lows will be above normal in the low 60s west of I-55 while mid-upper 50s to the east, with some patchy fog tonight in the Pine Belt. With highs well above seasonable values, in the mid-upper 70s, there is expected to be enough moist advection for dewpoints to climb into the mid 60s & decent destabilization to occur. Strong low-level jet is progged to develop, but a majority of that increased low-level flow in the northern & eastern areas. There is enough progged juxtaposition of anomalous destabilization & increased mean shear (i.e. ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE & 30-50kts of 0-3km & 0-6km mean bulk shear, respectively) for all modes of severe weather including a few tornadoes possible, damaging wind gusts & hail of quarter to golf ball size. Lapse rates of 6.5-7.0 deg C & vertical totals in the 25-27 deg C range support anomalous destabilization, near climatological record, for robust updrafts & large hail. Storm mode at the onset is potentially some supercells transitioning to broken line/bowing line segments, with embedded tornado potential highest any east-northeast bowing segments.

Recent high-res CAM runs of the HRRR & RFS have begun to speed up, with late aftn to early evening across extreme northwest ArkLaMiss Delta, evening to around midnight across the Natchez Trace to I-55 corridor & late evening to just after midnight for areas east of I- 55. There could be some rogue aftn stronger storm or two that may have some severe potential, but a majority should be in the late aftn to evening timeframe. Rain & storm chances, with the best forcing, have trended earlier but remain pretty isolated southeast of the Natchez Trace Saturday aftn, but sufficient shear could support a low end severe threat before the robust activity moves in. Expect rain & storm chances to quickly scour out through daybreak Sunday, with majority of the severe potential done around midnight & any lingering low end potential done around 3AM.
Expect light rain chances to wind down by mid-morning to midday Sunday. Lows Saturday night will be warmer southeast of the Natchez Trace in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees due to rain/storms & gradient wind, while to the northwest into the low 40s. Expect cooler thermo & more blustery conditions Sunday, with highs 5-10 degrees below normal in the low 50s north to mid-upper 50s south.

Next week (Monday-Thursday): Synoptic/sfc pattern will consist of mean northwesterly flow/sfc ridging early week gradually transitioning to more zonal flow & southeasterly return flow & moderating conditions in the mid-late week. At the start, as sfc high builds through & winds lighten, widespread lows will fall below freezing, some +10 degrees below normal, areawide Monday morning & near to below again Tuesday morning. Widespread frost is expected during this timeframe each night through mid-morning each day. Highs will begin to moderate from near 5 degrees below normal in the mid 50s early week to near normal in the low 60s by late week. Lows will begin to moderate as sfc ridge builds east & southeasterly return flow commences. With dry conditions aloft & PWs around or less than half inch, near the 10th-25th percentile, a dry & sunny conditions are expected through midweek while scattered clouds could build in late week. /DC/

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1056 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Radars showed scattered -SHRA across the eastern half of MS and additional -SHRA may come in vcty of the western TAF sites after 09Z. Otherwise gradually lowering cigs to MVFR and then to a mix of MVFR/IFR conditions develop by 12Z areawide. These lower conditions wl continue through 18Z before improving to VFR conditions by 21Z. A gusty south to southwest wind of 20kts wl be observed at most TAF sites through the TAF period. A line of TSRA will move across the TAF sites along and ahead of a cold front Saturday evening. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 60 77 44 52 / 20 70 100 10 Meridian 57 77 48 56 / 40 60 100 40 Vicksburg 61 78 43 53 / 20 90 90 10 Hattiesburg 58 78 51 58 / 20 50 100 20 Natchez 61 78 43 53 / 20 70 90 10 Greenville 60 74 41 49 / 50 90 70 10 Greenwood 60 74 41 49 / 50 90 90 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Jackson/Brandon, MS,