FXUS64 KJAN 262000 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 300 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

New DISCUSSION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Tonight and Saturday:

Persistent showers and isolated thunderstorm will continue through tonight and Saturday. The trough axis is expected to remain off to the west of the ArkLaMiss, keeping rainfall/rain chances in the area with overnight lows in the lower 70s. Patchy fog may be possible overnight and early morning hours.

For Saturday, the trough axis will gradually push towards the northwest; however southwestern flow will continue to push gulf moisture into the region. Showers and isolated thunderstorm chances will remain across the area. Although rainfall chances will continue, flash flooding risk will decrease throughout the day.
Afternoon highs will be in the mid/upper 80s to near 90 degrees. /SW/

Tomorrow night through late next week (Saturday night-next Thursday)...

Late weekend (Sunday): The previous longwave pattern that has plagued the area for the last week will finally be losing the grip across the region. The longstanding Rex block pattern will finally break down, with the subtropical ridge across the western Atlantic finally shifting westward & ridge axis across the northeast states breaking down. The shortwave trough to our west will be migrating around the periphery of the ridge across the northern Gulf Coast.
This will bring a gradual decrease into the following week from more scattered to numerous showers & storms. With high PWs & light flow, some locally heavy downpours can't be ruled out into Sunday. Highs will begin to moderate into late weekend, with some patchy fog possible in the morning due to lingering high boundary layer moisture. Highs will be still remain less seasonable, in the upper 80s northwest of the Natchez Trace to low 90s to the southeast.

Next week: As the pattern finally breaks down, the ridge over the west will build to the southeast. This will gradually amplify into late week, nearly 595-597DM across the ArkLaTex. With drier air filtering in from the northwest, rain & storm chances will become more diurnal & shift southeast through the week, mainly becoming confined southeast of the Natchez Trace corridor by mid-late week.
Highs will begin to heat up into the low-mid 90s by late week.
Combined with increasing low-level flow & sufficient recent rains, this will aid in low-level moisture being elevated into late week.
Heat indices & heat stress will increase, with graphics being needed as confidence narrows down. It could begin as late weekend but likely into mid-late week after Tuesday, where heat related HWO graphics & heat headlines will likely be needed. Holding off now but will likely be needed in future forecast packages. /DC/
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