Monday, October21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Frierson, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 6:37PM Monday October 21, 2019 2:47 AM CDT (07:47 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:30PM Illumination 48% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Frierson, LA
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location: 32.35, -93.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Shreveport, LA
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Fxus64 kshv 210512
afdshv
area forecast discussion
national weather service shreveport la
1212 am cdt Mon oct 21 2019

Aviation
For the 21 06z tafs, first line of strong to severe convection is
already ongoing from kdeq to kjdd. This activity will continue
ene along mainly along the interstate 30 corridor. Farther
northwest, another line of severe convection is developing along a
cold front. This second line may eventually overtake the first as
the cold front surges southeast across the region. All TAF sites
will be affected by strong to severe thunderstorms during the
period. The storms will diminish from northwest to southeast and
will eventually move past all TAF sites by 21 20z. MVFR ceilings
are expected ahead of the storms, but flight conditions will be
highly variable during the convection.

The convection should end with the frontal passage. Winds will
quickly veer to the northwest, which will usher drier air into the
region and allow skies to quickly clear andVFR conditions to
prevail.

Cn

Prev discussion issued 1008 pm cdt Sun oct 20 2019
update...

supercells have diminished in intensity across the CWA for now.

However, intense convection over the dallas fort worth metroplex
along a dry line will continue eastwards towards our area over the
next several hours. The environment continues to be very
conducive for tornadic activity over east texas. Mesoanalysis
indicates CAPE values well over 1000 j kg are in place across the
eastern half of the area. In addition, vertical shear profiles,
especially shear in the 0-1 km has increased over east texas in
the last couple of hours as the surface low over oklahoma moves
east. 0-1 km SRH values have increased to over 400 m2 s2. No
modifications are currently planned to tornado watch 676.

Farther to the northwest, the much anticipated qlcs is quickly
developing over central oklahoma and western north texas. The
qlcs will likely bring more severe weather during the early
morning hours.

Cn
prev discussion... Issued 758 pm cdt Sun oct 20 2019
update...

see below for 21 00z aviation discussion.

An isolated supercell has developed over east texas in an area of
0-1 km SRH of about 200 m2 s2. Latest mesoanalysis combined with
the 00z shv RAOB indicates the low-level shear decreases somewhat
with eastward extent. However, a tornado threat will likely
persist with this storm. Additional convection is likely,
especially after midnight, as the much-advertised qlcs develops
over oklahoma and texas.

Text products have been updated to reflect the issuance of tornado
watch 676 through 07z and for an update to pop grids through 03z
based on latest radar trends.

Cn
prev discussion... Issued 406 pm cdt Sun oct 20 2019
short term... Tonight through Monday night
despite an abundance of low clouds and patchy fog this morning,
temperatures have climbed well into the 80s this afternoon. Some
areas along and south of i-20 have even managed the upper 80s for
highs as a warm front has shifted north today. In addition, dew
points have also surged into the lower 70s across much of these
same areas. This is all occurring ahead of a cold front which is
primed to move into our NW zones around midnight and quickly shift
se across the region overnight through Monday morning, setting the
stage for a potential severe weather event across our entire
four-state region. Although low-level instability may initially
decrease slightly after sunset, expect it to increase once again
with the approaching cold front as MUCAPE values spike toward the
2000-2500 j kg range overnight and perhaps a bit higher in some
locations. Add in the increasing low-level jet in the range of
50-60 kts and veering wind profiles with increasing wind shear, a
very robust line of convection will develop and spread SE toward
the i-30 corridor where an enhanced risk of severe weather is
noted in the SPC day 1 outlook. This line will continue on to the
se across the remainder of the region with a primary damaging wind
threat coupled with the lower threats of large hail and isolated
tornadoes, which would likely be embedded within the evolving
qlcs. Rainfall amounts will average near an inch across the region
with isolated higher amounts possible over the next 24 hours.

The line of convection should exit the region by early to mid
afternoon on Monday with cooler and drier spilling south across
the region. Highs on Monday afternoon will range through the 70s
while overnight lows will fall into the 40s to near 50 degrees in
wake of the cold front on Monday night under clear skies and light
nw winds.

19
long term... Tuesday through Sunday night
a departing trough of low pressure extending from the great lakes
into the lower miss valley on Tuesday will result in milder
temperatures and drier conditions through at least Wednesday. By
Thursday, the westerlies will remain rather active as yet another
trough of low pressure moves out of the intermountain west and into
the great plains. Low level moisture should increase quickly wed
night into Thu with perhaps some diurnally driven isolated to
scattered convection possible across our western half on Thursday
and then chance pops areawide Thu night into Friday.

There continues to be considerable discrepancies concerning how this
late week trough will evolve with the ECMWF canadian solutions
suggesting the base of the trough will cut itself off from the
westerlies on Friday in the lee of the southern rockies while the
more progressive GFS suggests the trough will be much more open and
quickly brings an end to the rainfall across our area on Friday. The
differing solutions remain dug-in in regards to the above features
so tried to blend the varying solutions which would result in rain
chances lingering at least into the first half of Saturday.

Regardless, look for much cooler conditions with a frontal passage
sometime late Thursday or Friday with a cool upcoming and possible
wet first half of next weekend.

13

Preliminary point temps pops
Shv 69 77 50 74 80 80 0 0
mlu 71 77 50 74 30 90 10 0
deq 60 73 41 72 90 20 0 0
txk 64 73 46 72 90 50 0 0
eld 68 76 46 72 70 80 0 0
tyr 63 74 48 74 90 40 0 0
ggg 66 74 47 73 80 50 0 0
lfk 71 78 50 77 70 80 0 0

Shv watches warnings advisories
Ar... None.

La... None.

Ok... None.

Tx... None.

09 15


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Barksdale Air Force Base, LA11 mi1.9 hrsS 1410.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F73°F95%1005.2 hPa
Shreveport, Shreveport Regional Airport, LA13 mi1.9 hrsS 12 G 2210.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F72°F88%1004.6 hPa
Shreveport, Shreveport Downtown Airport, LA14 mi54 minS 9 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F72°F79%1004.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBAD

Wind History from BAD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSE3CalmS3SE3S4S5SW7S8SW5S5S8SW10S9S8SE7S9S12E4S10S10S14S17
G20
1 day agoSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S6SE4S3S5S4SE4S3S7W5S4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S3
2 days agoE3CalmCalmCalmN3N3N4E5E7SE7----E7E3E6E5E5E6E4E4CalmSE5CalmS4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Shreveport, LA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Shreveport, LA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.