Sunday, August18, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Frierson, LA

Version 3.4
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 7:58PM Sunday August 18, 2019 2:11 AM CDT (07:11 UTC) Moonrise 9:00PMMoonset 8:18AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Frierson, LA
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location: 32.35, -93.63     debug

Area Discussion for - Shreveport, LA
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Fxus64 kshv 180457
area forecast discussion
national weather service shreveport la
1157 pm cdt Sat aug 17 2019

Srly breeze near 5 kts across much of the CWA and fog not expected
to be a major issue but could be patchy at times at mainly kmlu
and kshv terminals, where cooling outflow boundaries occurred in
late aftn. Widely sct aftn tstms possible at kmlu, klkf, and
possibly keld. South wind near 10 kts on Sunday, and possiby near
15 kts at ktyr. A few MVFR cloud decks will advance north of i-20,
but not likely to begin devloping until btwn 18 10-12z. Aftn
cumulus clouds to develop again and then mostlyVFR skc after
19 00z. 07 .

Prev discussion issued 925 pm cdt Sat aug 17 2019

early eve scattered showers NRN la have just dissipated with
sunset. Leaving out pops remainder of night. Although some temps
have lowered to upper 70s with outflow boundaries, expect those
temps to lvl off with overnight lows in middle to upper 70s still
expected. No update needed attm.

Prev discussion... Issued 432 pm cdt Sat aug 17 2019
short term... Tonight through Sunday night
the weak seabreeze continues to make slow progress nne into
portions of deep east tx and northcentral la, with the isolated
convection having been more recently outflow driven. Dewpoints
have not mixed out much this afternoon, with the dry soil moisture
conditions contributing to afternoon temps climbing into the mid
to upper 90s areawide even in the absence of the upper ridge which
remains flat and situated over the NRN gulf and over S tx. Given
the ample instability in place this afternoon with the high
dewpoints, did maintain slight chance pops for much of ncntrl la
and portions of deep E tx through mid-evening before the
convection diminishes completely. Temps will struggle to cool
tonight given the high dewpoints in place, and thus have trended
near or slightly above the blends MOS as srly low level winds will
remain up overnight with a developing 25-30kts sswrly low level
flow. This will also result in a stratocu field developing a bit
earlier than it has in some time, which should inhibit temps from
falling once they develop.

The flat ridging in place to our ssw will begin to amplify n
and E across the SRN plains and much of our region Sunday. A weak
shortwave trough entering NRN ok SE ks this afternoon will
continue to drift ese around the amplifying ridge tonight through
Sunday, but dry air in the mid and upper levels will advect e
across E tx and much of N la Sunday ahead of this trough which
should greatly reduce the extent of weak seabreeze convection that
develops along the SW scntrl la coast. In fact, the short term
progs are in good agreement with the greatest convection coverage
e of the region from the lower ms valley of SE la cntrl ms Sunday
afternoon, and thus have trimmed back pops to slight chance to
just the far ERN and SRN sections of ncntrl la and deep E tx.

Despite the morning low stratus, temps should quickly rebound once
they begin scattering out by mid to late morning, and thus have
trended MAX temps above the blended and MOS guidance closer to
what was observed this afternoon, in the mid to upper 90s. Even
with the dry advection in the mid and upper levels Sunday, low
level mixing will be more limited, resulting in heat advisory
criteria again being met over much of the region. Thus, no changes
were needed here, with the expectation of the advisory being
extended in duration as the upper ridge remains over the region.

Any convection Sunday afternoon should diminish by 00z Monday,
and thus maintained dry conditions through the remainder of the
short term period.

long term... Monday through Saturday
a somewhat flat upper level ridge will remain over west texas on
Monday. A weak shortwave trough will move southward on the eastern
periphery of the ridge along the mississippi river and towards new
orleans by Tuesday morning. On Tuesday, the center of the ridge will
move northeast into oklahoma, which will steer the shortwave trough
westward across southern louisiana. This should bring isolated to
scattered convection to the area Monday through Wednesday, mainly
southeast of a line from lufkin tx to magnolia ar. The best chances
for rain should be on Tuesday and Wednesday across central louisiana
as the trough passes just south of the forecast area. The majority
of the convection on both days should be primarily diurnally driven
and is expected to quickly dissipate after sunset.

During the latter half of the work week, the upper level ridge will
gradually break down leaving the region in a more zonal flow aloft.

Another weak upper trough will dive southeast through the southern
plains and towards the lower mississippi river valley. This may
bring a weak cold front southward into central oklahoma and
arkansas. Combined with ascent from the first trough that will be
near houston, coverage of scattered convection should be even
greater on Thursday and Friday, especially east of a line from
lufkin tx to broken bow ok. The medium range models also suggest a
surface low will develop by Saturday in the northwest gulf just
south of sabine pass. This could provide an additional enhancement
to our rain chances. The ECMWF is considerably more aggressive with
the development of this trough compared to the gfs, but any impacts
from this potential system are still beyond the range of this
forecast package.

Daytime temperatures will continue to range in the mid to upper 90s
for most of the upcoming work week. Many locations will likely be
very near 100 degrees f for Monday and Tuesday and have continued to
trend the forecast a couple of degrees higher as the model blends
are still showing a cool bias. However, temperatures will gradually
trended downward through the week due to the increasing rain chances
and increasing cloud cover.


Preliminary point temps pops
Shv 78 98 77 99 10 10 0 20
mlu 75 97 75 96 10 20 10 30
deq 74 97 75 98 0 10 10 10
txk 76 97 76 98 10 10 10 10
eld 74 96 75 97 10 10 10 20
tyr 78 98 79 99 10 0 0 10
ggg 78 98 78 98 10 10 0 10
lfk 76 97 77 97 10 20 0 20

Shv watches warnings advisories
Ar... Heat advisory until 7 pm cdt Sunday for arz050-051-059>061-

La... Heat advisory until 7 pm cdt Sunday for laz001>006-010>014-

Ok... Heat advisory until 7 pm cdt Sunday for okz077.

Tx... Heat advisory until 7 pm cdt Sunday for txz096-097-108>112-

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Barksdale Air Force Base, LA11 mi76 minSE 410.00 miFair76°F75°F100%1012.3 hPa
Shreveport, Shreveport Regional Airport, LA13 mi16 minSSE 410.00 miFair78°F75°F90%1011.8 hPa
Shreveport, Shreveport Downtown Airport, LA14 mi19 minSSE 610.00 miFair82°F75°F79%1012 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBAD

Wind History from BAD (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmS4SE4CalmSE4CalmCalmW5SW5SW5E3SE3SE7SE7SE7SE13SE9SE13E7SE6SE5SE4SE4SE6
1 day agoCalmCalmSE3SE3Calm--CalmCalmSE5CalmS5E6S4S5S7SE5SE4SE5SE5SE6SE5S7SE7SE3
2 days agoN3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3E5E5NE4NE6NE3E7E7E8E4E4E4NE5SE5SE6E4SE3S4S5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Shreveport, LA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Shreveport, LA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.