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FXUS64 KJAN 052334 AAA AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 534 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

New AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 221 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

Tonight and Tomorrow...

Tonight will be another night of near freezing temperatures as northerly winds continue to pump polar air into the region due to a shortwave trough making its way towards the Atlantic. Nonetheless, conditions will be quiet with low temperatures in the lower 30s north of I-20 and mid to upper 30s south of the corridor. Skies will continue to be clear tomorrow with temperatures warming up to the mid 50s. Winds will be calmer as this trough makes its way out of the region. /LCP/

Midweek through early next week (Wednesday night-next Monday)...

Mid-late week (Wednesday night-Friday): Synoptic pattern will consist of shortwave/sfc ridge building through the area under northwesterly flow in the low levels & aloft Wednesday night. Dry front will be moving through the area, leading to northwesterly sfc winds. Under clear skies, we should radiate to near 3-5 degrees below normal below freezing east of I-55 to near freezing to the west. Cooler thermo profiles will build in Thursday, leading to near to slightly below normal cool highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. As the low-level ridge builds east over the southeast states/FL Peninsula to just off the GA/Carolinas, southwesterly return flow will pick up across the region. Expect southerly sfc winds to pick up through the day. A longwave trough is expected to begin to amplify over the Intermountain West, with deepening sfc cyclone developing along the Four Corners to lee side of the Rockies into Friday. This will help southwesterly upper jet & sfc winds to begin to pick up through the aftn hours. With increased moisture/clouds & southerly winds, lows will be some 3-5 degrees above normal in the low 40s west to upper 30s in the Hwy 45 corridor. As ridging amplifies from the Ohio Valley to off the Atlantic seaboard, lead shortwave trough will eject into the northern Plains-Great Lakes, while more significant jet energy will be diving across the Rockies, with significant sfc cyclone developing across West Texas.
Seasonable warmth. some +5 above normal, is expected in this moderating pattern into the upper 60s to low 70s on Friday.

This weekend-early next week (Saturday-next Monday): Strong upper jet is progged to amplify west of the MS River Valley, with 500- 300mb upper jet of 80-120kts, respectively, setting up off to the west. A stronger spoke of energy is progged to dig across the southwestern states through south Texas through Saturday. A <1005mb sfc low will quickly eject out of south-central Texas into the Mid- West by Saturday evening & Great Lakes by Sunday morning. This will drag a strong cold front through the day Saturday. With 850mb jet of 30-40kts, expect moisture return to increase through the aftn, helping PWs climb to nearly an inch & a half by Saturday aftn. This will help isolated to scattered showers to build in by daybreak Saturday & become more numerous to widespread showers & storms into the aftn hours. With strong southwesterly low-level 0-1km bulk shear near 30kts & 0-3km/0-6km shear of 35-50kts, respectively, severe potential remains across the region Saturday aftn into the evening hours. With strong forcing/height falls & enough destabilization, there looks to be enough potential for high shear/low cape (HSLC)
setup. In addition, 500mb height fields around 572-576 DM are typical climatological favored heights for severe potential. This timing looks to be mainly around daybreak Saturday aftn through around midnight Sunday. Leaned towards faster timing of rain & severe storms in the aftn & moving through quickly into late evening hours. All modes look possible, especially if we are dealing with off boundary shear. Stay tuned as timing will likely have to be fine-tuned as we get closer. Front is expected to move through quickly & rain chances moving out midday to early Sunday aftn.

For forecast elements, leaned towards well above seasonable consensus for lows Friday night due to clouds & rain chances & increased gradient winds around. Lows will be some +15-20 degrees in the mid 50s east to upper 50s west. Highs will warm to +10 degrees above normal in the low-mid 70s. With rain chances & clouds persisting into Sunday morning, lows will be some 3-5 degrees above normal in the upper 30s northwest to low-mid 40s to the east.

As strong sfc ridge & drier air build in the wake, expect dry & cooler conditions into early next week, with a light freeze possible into the start of the work week. /DC/

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

VFR conditions prevail across the region early this evening.
Overnight, winds will shift to NW/N. High clouds will stream across parts of south MS. There is a low chance of clouds approaching MVFR category reaching the GTR area for a few hours early Wed morning, but confidence is too low to include in TAF at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue to prevail.
/DL/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 37 56 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 35 56 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 36 55 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 38 57 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 38 56 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 35 53 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 34 54 33 61 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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