Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pelahatchie, MS

MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 932 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

A broken line of showers and thunderstorms is sagging southward into the northern portions of our forecast area this evening, with the rain cooled air behind the outflow boundary registering temperatures in the lower 70s. Warm, humid conditions persist south/ahead of the outflow boundary. Temps at 9 PM were around 80 degrees through the Interstate 20 corridor. Chances for rain and thunder will spread south with this activity into the morning, and generally increase again with daytime heating around the boundary.
/NF/

DISCUSSION
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

This afternoon through Friday night: Sub-tropical ridging will weaken across the region this weekend. This will yet again allow troughing/low pressure aloft to become the primary weather feature across the region through much of the forecast period. Beginning this afternoon, rain chances will increase across the forecast area, with very good chances continuing each day through at least the middle of next week.

Still, and at least for this afternoon, hot humid conditions will exist areawide as highs climb into the middle 90s. This, coupled with dew points in the 70s, is bringing heat index values climbing up to near 110F, especially in the upper ArkLaMiss Delta region where a heat advisory was issued after coordination with MEG/LZK offices. After today, with the better rain chances forecast through at least the middle of next week, the potential for dangerous heat stress will be squashed.

This evening: With a bit more of a northwest flow aloft setting up across the region this weekend, attention will need to be paid upstream for any complex of storms that could potentially affect the CWA The first of such looks to come late this afternoon into this evening as a complex is currently progged to drop south and potentially into far northern portions of the area. As a result, a "Marginal Risk" for isolated severe storms resides across northern portions of the area for mainly this evening into the overnight. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern with such storms, although heavy downpours and frequent lightning can both be expected.

Late tonight through Sunday morning: A multitude of near term high-res guidance indicate a relative lull in the convection going into Sunday morning, and so that is the general idea for this forecast. Don't be surprised if there is a lingering strong storm or two around daybreak that persists from the overnight activity. There is a signal for this in the 12z REFS (more specically the 12z HRRR and REFS control members). Expect this activity, if it exists, to wash out shortly after daybreak and not be a huge influence on how convection develops later Sunday.

Otherwise, as a frontal boundary tries to settle into the region late Sunday into early week, we'll again maintain good chances for showers and storms across the area. South of this boundary, a very moist and unstable airmass will continue to reside across the CWA Another "Marginal Risk" for isolated severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts will again exist across much of the CWA Sunday afternoon and evening as a result. Again, both heavy downpours and frequent lightning can be expected with convection.

Although this boundary will eventually washout, due to the overall troughing/low pressure pattern over the region, combined with the continued humid and unstable airmass, these rain chances will persist into at least Wednesday. While severe storms currently aren't forecast after Sunday, given the again overall continued unstable environment, the most intense storms could still produce gusty winds, along with heavy downpours, and frequent lightning.

Finally, come Thursday and continuing into Friday, ridging aloft reasserting itself over the region from the east is progged to lessen said rain chances late in the forecast period. However, the trade-off currently looks to be a return to increased heat stress conditions across portions of the forecast area. /19/EC/

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

An outflow boundary dropping through the area overnight will continue to yield isolated showers and storms across mainly central and southern portions of the area during the overnight hours. While VFR flight categories are expected to prevail, a reduction of categories to MVFR/IFR status will be possible is convection is observed within an area TAF sites respected aerodrome. Convection will be more scattered to widespread across the area this afternoon as a surface boundary sinks south into the area. An isolated severe storm capable of producing damaging wind gust will be possible with the most intense storms. Heavy downpours and frequent light can also be expected. This of course will again result in a degradation of flight categories if observed on-station. Wind overnight will be calm to light from the southwest. These will increase by late morning from the southwest between 5-10 knots, with higher gusts possible again near convection. /19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 91 72 88 71 / 50 60 60 20 Meridian 92 72 88 71 / 60 60 60 20 Vicksburg 91 73 88 72 / 60 60 70 20 Hattiesburg 93 73 85 72 / 50 70 80 20 Natchez 91 73 86 72 / 60 80 90 20 Greenville 90 72 90 72 / 50 30 10 10 Greenwood 90 72 90 71 / 60 20 40 20

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.