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FXUS64 KJAN 040844 AAD AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 244 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

New AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 241 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

Tonight and Tomorrow: The forecast for the short term period remains on track with no major modifications made to the overall forecast. Current afternoon model guidance continues to highlight a weak cold front moving across our region tonight, and we'll have drier and cooler air move in behind the front along with a 1025 sfc high. Expect overnight temperatures to drop into the mid 40s across the area. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow as the sfc high remains in a stationary position across the southeast US.
Expect afternoon temperatures to peak in the low to mid 60s. /CR/

Monday night through Saturday: For most of the week, the long range features little in the way of significant weather impacts for the forecast area. However, that should change quickly as we go into the weekend when the potential for stormy weather to arrive.
The upper level pattern will be quite progressive early in the week, flipping from one that has more continental polar influence with northwest flow to one that is more zonal with milder Pacific flow.

In the details, most guidance agree that we will have another dry shortwave trough passage across the lower MS Valley region in northwest flow Tue into Tue night. We'll need to monitor for perhaps some limited fire weather danger given expected dry and gusty west to northerly winds and strong mixing with afternoon RH values dipping to near critical thresholds. Also, it looks like there will be a light freeze Tue night and Wed night for much of central/eastern MS as surface high pressure centers over the area.

Going into late week, strong Pacific flow moving into the western CONUS will flip the pattern to one that is more zonal. Surface pressures will lower and wind will shift to more southerly.
Rising mid level heights will support warming temperatures and minimal rain chances to end the week, but by Saturday, it still looks like a significant shortwave trough that could eventually bring stormier weather conditions. NWP guidance is in some flux with this trough, with both speed and amplitude, so confidence in exact impacts is on the low side. Overall it has trended more phased with the polar stream which results in faster timing with greatest potential for any storms being early in the weekend.
/EC/

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 242 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

TAFs were amended to include a mention of low-level wind shear through around 13Z-14Z today as a wave moving over the region has enhanced winds just off the surface early this morning. These stronger winds should mix down through the day and increase gusts across the forecast area. VFR conditions should prevail at the TAF sites through the remainder of the period. /NF/



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 37 64 37 57 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 36 65 37 57 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 36 65 36 57 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 39 65 39 58 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 38 65 38 57 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 37 63 35 54 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 35 63 34 54 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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