Sunrise 6:22 AM   Sunset 7:34 PM Moonrise 4:49 PM   Moonset 4:49 AM

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FXUS64 KJAN 201058 AAA AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 558 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

New AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 421 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Today and Tonight:

A stationary frontal boundary currently resides along a northeast to southwest line stretching from just south of Meridian, to near Brookhaven, to just south of both Concordia and Catahoula Parishes on Louisiana. Behind this front, northerly winds will allow for cooler drier air to filter south into the CWA, while moisture pools ahead of it under southerly surface winds. For today, a mid/upper level disturbance embedded in zonal flow aloft will traverse the region along this boundary. This'll result in widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms developing across the forecast area through the day. There will be a lull in activity this evening as the first disturbance exits the region.
However, another disturbance will again track east across the region late tonight in early Sunday morning. This will yet again bring widespread showers to the forecast area, as the cold front finally pushes southeast and out of the CWA

Although cold advection is occurring in the wake of this boundary, the process is currently quite slow. With precipitable H2O values across much of the CWA progged between 1.50-1.75 inches and convection forecast to move west to east across the CWA, heavy downpours can be expected with today's activity, and again with tonight's as the front pushes out of the area. As a result, a limited threat for flash flooding exists today into tonight. This will particularly be the case over areas mainly along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor where widespread heavy rainfall fell late last week, & again during the middle of this week, & as today and tonight's convection is progged to train across the same locations.
Here, 1-3 inches of rain will be possible. This could result in further flash flooding of low-lying and poor drainages areas, as well as further contribute to ongoing river flooding in the area.

In addition to this limited flash flooding threat, a "Marginal Risk" for isolated severe storms will exist across the Pine Belt region this afternoon and early evening. Here, the better combination of instability, wind shear, and steep mid-level lapse rates will exist.
As a result, isolated severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail up to the size of quarters will be possible from around 1 PM today through 7 PM this evening.

As far as temperatures are concerned through the period, a decent spread of temperatures is expected from north to south across the CWA due to the aforementioned stalled frontal boundary. Look for highs to range from around 60 across the Delta region, to around 80 across the Pine Belt. Then for tonight, lows will range from the middle 40s north to middle 50s south. /19/

Sunday through Friday:

The chance for rain will continue into the afternoon Sunday, clearing from north to south as an upper-level shortwave trough axis clears the region and drier surface air works into the region with high pressure. Overnight lows have a chance to radiate a little cooler with the surface high sliding overhead Sunday night and Monday night, but at this time think even the cooler locations should remain too warm for frost. That said, a brief touch of frost cannot entirely be ruled out in those typically cold drainage locations in northern Mississippi either night. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast period will see a warming trend as an upper-level ridge steadily builds and shifts eastward toward the Mississippi River Valley by late week. Models begin to diverge with regard to timing of a shortwave ejecting from the Southwest U.S. later in the week, but a glancing blow from the wave could bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms to at least northwestern parts of our forecast area by the end of the week. /NF/

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

A mix of MVFR/IFR flight categories will persist at area TAF sites throughout this 12Z forecast period. This will be as a result of low stratus prevailing areawide across the area through the period, along with increasing chances for widespread showers, and isolated to scattered thunderstorms, through early Sunday morning. An isolated severe storm capable of producing damaging wind gusts and up to quarter size hail, will be possible this afternoon and early evening over the Pine Belt region. Winds will become northerly at all area TAF sites today, while sustained around 10 knots, with some gusts between 15-20 knots possible away from thunderstorms. /19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 69 49 62 42 / 80 90 60 0 Meridian 71 47 62 42 / 70 90 70 0 Vicksburg 65 49 63 42 / 70 90 50 0 Hattiesburg 80 53 62 45 / 60 70 60 0 Natchez 71 49 62 43 / 60 90 50 0 Greenville 59 50 62 43 / 80 90 20 0 Greenwood 62 48 63 42 / 70 90 30 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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