Tuesday, May26, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Burton, SC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 8:22PM Tuesday May 26, 2020 4:17 PM EDT (20:17 UTC) Moonrise 8:31AMMoonset 11:09PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 253 Pm Edt Tue May 26 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms this evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Wed..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Wed night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Fri night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms likely in the evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 253 Pm Edt Tue May 26 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. Weak low pressure is expected to track over or near the area tonight through Wednesday. Unsettled weather should prevail until a cold front moves through the region early next week. High pressure will bring drier conditions and cooler temperatures early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Burton, SC
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location: 32.41, -80.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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FXUS62 KCHS 261930 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 330 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020

SYNOPSIS. Weak low pressure is expected to track over or near the area tonight through Wednesday. Unsettled weather should prevail until a cold front moves through the region early next week. High pressure will bring drier conditions and cooler temperatures early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. Rain coverage has diminished as expected this afternoon as the primary shortwave moves north of the area and the isentropic ascent subsides. A powerful closed upper low will continue to dig toward the north central Gulf Coast tonight. Meanwhile, surface low pressure has been developing off the FL coast while a wedge of high pressure remains entrenched across southeast SC/GA. Tonight, this surface low will lift north or north- northwest. The model guidance remains in poor agreement on the eventual track of the surface low. However, we can pretty confidently discount the western outliers due to the persistent cold air wedge in place. Climatology favors the surface low following the baroclinic zone and therefore remaining just off our coast as it moves north. The GFS most closely resembles this low track.

Although forcing will remain pretty weak through early Wed morning, there should be isolated to scattered showers from time to time. The airmass remains quite moist with PWATs close to 2" and upper level divergence continues. Later tonight as the surface low moves north and the onshore flow strengthens, PWATs will surge to near 2.2". The greatest risk for heavy rainfall is looking like it will be along northeast Charleston County toward the Grand Strand. This would most likely be late tonight into Wednesday morning as the surface low moves closest. In general, we should see precipitation coverage increasing from south to north overnight with the best coverage across southern SC.

We have been continuing to discuss the isolated severe weather potential for several forecast cycles. There will likely be a pocket of enhanced helicity coinciding with moderate instability as the surface low moves north. However, the placement of these enhanced parameters and whether they will interact with any land in our forecast area is uncertain. Based on the increasing confidence that the surface low will remain offshore as it passes our area, the severe weather potential is looking marginal at best. The GFS shows the best instability and shear parameters remaining just east of the area late tonight. We did however include isolated thunderstorms later tonight due to weak elevated instability developing in spots.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/. Wednesday morning: While the models are still somewhat inconsistent regarding forecast details, the low pressure system off the coast of Florida Tuesday afternoon is expected to advance north somewhere near the GA/SC coastline Wednesday. Onshore moisture transport and a plume PWATs exceeding 2 inches suggest the potential for locally heavy rainfall, especially Wednesday morning. Rain amounts could exceed 2 to 3 inches in localized places, especially the Tri-Country area. Because the best moisture should advance into northern counties, the threat of heavy/prolonged rainfall seems less likely in our Georgia areas, but can not be ruled out. Here, most rainfall amounts should fall into the 0.50 to 1.50 inch range, but locally higher amounts are possible. While heavy rain is the biggest threat, enhanced instability, shear and helicity will exist near the surface low where isolated tornadoes, waterspouts and damaging winds cannot be ruled out. As a result, SC coastal areas remain in a marginal risk for severe weather Wednesday.

Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night: As the low and associated deepest moisture pushes north of the area, POPs generally decrease from S/SW to N/NE across the area Wednesday afternoon, and per diurnal stabilization the chance for showers could decrease to less than 15 percent across S/W counties Wednesday night. Also, light winds and enhanced boundary layer moisture could support fog in some areas later Wednesday night.

Thursday: The mid-levels will consist of a cutoff low centered over Arkansas in the morning and high pressure off the Mid- Atlantic Coast. As time progresses, the low will become absorbed into long- wave troughing over the MS Valley, while the high gradually moves further offshore. At the surface, high pressure will be located far off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Meanwhile, troughing is expected to develop over the Southeastern U.S. Lots of moisture will be ushered into the region from the Gulf. PWATs are forecasted to approach 2", which is 2 standard deviations above normal per NAEFs. Models seem to indicate the highest probabilities of rainfall across the Charleston Tri-County and the far inland counties during the morning, which focus shifting in the afternoon away from the immediate coast and more towards the inland counties. We generally have the highest POPs in the likely category, but it's possible these are too low in some locations. POPs trend downward in the evening with the setting sun, only to ramp back up again late at night as synoptic forcing becomes more favorable. QPF varies significantly from model to model. We have a few tenths in the forecast, but higher amounts are possible in thunderstorms. There is decent instability in place during the day. GFS MLCAPEs could approach 1,500 J/kg. But DCAPEs aren't overly impressive and shear is lacking. The overall severe threat doesn't seem too great, with the main hazard being damaging winds in the strongest storms. Temperatures should be near normal.

Friday: Mid-level troughing over the MS Valley in the morning will shift eastward and slowly weaken. Meanwhile, ridging in the Atlantic will move further offshore. Surface high pressure will be in the Atlantic while troughing prevails over the Southeast. Abundant moisture will be in place across the region, with PWATs approaching 2". This is about 2 standard deviations above normal per NAEFs. Models seem to indicate the greatest potential of showers is west of I-95. Though, they split on the QPF. Hence, we went with a blend and this generated values high enough to warrant categorical POPs for most locations. Instability appears to be comparable to Thursday with shear slightly higher. The resulting overall severe threat again is low, with the main hazard being damaging winds in the strongest storms. Temperatures should be 1-2 degrees cooler than on Thursday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Moderate confidence this period. The deep upper trough to the west is expected to weaken and shift east through the area late week with a cold front likely pushing through Saturday night into early Sunday. Deep moisture ahead of the front should keep rain chances at or above normal through Saturday night, although a few showers could even linger Sunday as the drier air lags a bit behind. By early Monday though cooler and much drier high pressure will build from the north. The risk of any severe storms looks low overall given generally weak deep layer shear with heavy rain and localized flooding possibly the bigger risk, especially after several days of rain leading to already wet ground. High temperatures should be near normal this weekend before dropping below normal while low temperatures likely stay above normal through Saturday night before falling back to near/below normal levels.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Surface low pressure moving up the coast tonight will maintain ceiling restrictions and produce scattered showers through much of Wednesday morning. Although some pockets of VFR ceilings are likely this afternoon, MVFR ceilings will be prevalent most of the 18Z TAF period. We included a period of IFR ceilings at KSAV late tonight into Wed morning when low-level winds are expected to turn more NNW and allow cooler air to wrap around the coastal low.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Showers/thunderstorms are expected to bring periodic flight restrictions through the weekend.

MARINE. The northeast gradient will tighten overnight as a surface low moves north while interacting with high pressure in place. We added a Small Craft Advisory for Charleston Harbor through this evening due to late afternoon sustained winds around 20 kt and a potential increase in winds later this evening per a few models. This may need to be extended through the night based on evening trends. Elsewhere, SCAs persist due to a combination of 6+ ft seas and 25 kt wind gusts.

Wednesday: Small Craft Advisories will remain in place through late morning for AMZ350 and AMZ374 as low pressure tracks over or close to the waters. Then, a slackening gradient should support lighter winds/subsiding seas Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Thunderstorms could produce locally hazardous conditions, most likely Wednesday morning but perhaps persisting into Wednesday afternoon/night.

Thursday through the Weekend: The coastal waters will be situated between high pressure in the Atlantic and surface troughing inland. The resulting surface pressure gradient will lead to sustained winds no more than 10-15 kt through Saturday. A cold front is forecasted to move through the waters on Sunday. Winds and seas are expected to stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents for the Charleston County beaches, mainly for elevated onshore winds.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Persistent ENE winds this evening will maintain +1 to +2 ft tidal anomalies at Charleston and Ft Pulaski. We are anticipating minor coastal flooding along the SC coast due to the Charleston tide gage reaching 7.0-7.3 ft MLLW. Fortunately the greatest risk for heavy rainfall will not be until late tonight which will coincide with low tide.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. SC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ330. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ352. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ350-374. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ354.

NEAR TERM . JRL SHORT TERM . MS/RAD LONG TERM . RJB AVIATION . JRL/MS/RAD MARINE . JRL/MS/RAD TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 17 mi93 min NNE 5.1 76°F 1017 hPa71°F
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 28 mi48 min ENE 16 G 22 76°F 77°F1015.9 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 47 mi78 min NE 24 G 27 73°F 1018 hPa (-0.9)73°F
CHTS1 48 mi48 min NE 15 G 19 74°F 78°F1017.5 hPa

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort County Airport, SC4 mi23 minno data7.00 miOvercast75°F69°F83%1015.9 hPa
Beaufort, Marine Corps Air Station, SC5 mi22 minENE 1010.00 miOvercast77°F70°F79%1016 hPa
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC13 mi28 minENE 14 G 219.00 miOvercast77°F71°F83%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KARW

Wind History from ARW (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Battery Creek, 4 mi. above entrance, Beaufort River, South Carolina
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Battery Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:05 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:31 PM EDT     6.87 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:12 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.68.16.84.92.91.10.40.823.65.16.26.86.864.62.91.30.40.723.95.87.3

Tide / Current Tables for Capers Creek, Cowen Creek, St. Helena Island, Beaufort River, South Carolina
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Capers Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:03 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:19 PM EDT     6.62 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:10 PM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.37.66.34.52.610.40.82.13.75.16.16.66.55.64.32.71.20.40.72.145.87.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.