Monday, October21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Burton, SC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 6:45PM Monday October 21, 2019 3:28 AM EDT (07:28 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:36PM Illumination 49% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 153 Am Edt Mon Oct 21 2019
Rest of tonight..N winds 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms in the evening.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 153 Am Edt Mon Oct 21 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure over the region tonight will begin to weaken on Monday. A frontal system will affect the area Monday night and Tuesday. High pressure will rebuild late Tuesday through Thursday before another storm system potentially moves in Friday or Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Burton, SC
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location: 32.41, -80.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 210607
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
207 am edt Mon oct 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure over the region tonight will begin to weaken on
Monday. A frontal system will affect the area Monday night and
Tuesday. High pressure will rebuild late Tuesday through
Thursday before another storm system potentially moves in
Friday or Saturday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Early this morning: looks like a quiet night ahead with no
chance for rain. The main forecast issue is the potential for
fog and stratus development, mainly inland. However, the
forecast isn't straightforward as fog development will be
battling high clouds streaking in from the southwest, as well as
a modest increase in low level flow that could hinder
development. But, just stepping outside it just feels like a fog
night as most observations sites are already at saturation with
calm winds. Guidance is mixed with the areal extent and
visibility, but generally favors interior southeast georgia for
the best coverage. The forecast pretty much carries patchy fog
everywhere to account for at least some shallow ground fog. Then
there is an inland tier with areas of fog mentioned.

Short term 6 am this morning through Wednesday
Monday: we maintained a dry forecast as deep layered dry air
persists above 850 mb for much of the region. Weak return flow
across far southeast ga will extend west along the gulf coast as
a broad baroclinic zone will be in a genesis stage. Isolated
showers may develop just prior to sunset in our far southern ga
coastal zones, however we preferred onset of pops to fall into
the Monday night period. Skies should become partly cloudy most
areas by afternoon with warm temps in the upper 70s to near 80
sc and lower 80s in ga.

Monday night and Tuesday: deep moisture advection is forecast
on Monday night across the region as a warm front lifts north
after midnight. We continue to trend upward with rain chances
late night as models indicate a fairly extensive band of
convective rains advancing north. Temps will rise overnight with
many of our minimum temps likely occurring in the evening hours
before clouds thicken and showers increasing. On Tuesday, a
deep long wave trough will blanket much the u.S. East of the
rockies. Our area will see slow but steady mid level height
falls as a cold front advances through the area reaching the
coast in the afternoon. Showers and a few tstms will accompany
and precede the front. The risk of severe weather does not look
too impressive despite strong wind fields aloft and warm low-
level temps prior to fropa. Latest models show instability
parameters weakening during the afternoon hours as low level dew
points decrease in a mixing low level environment. Highs will
reach the lower to mid 80s most areas ahead of the front.

Wednesday: dry and cooler conditions as high pressure builds
over the southeast states. Highs should only reach the lower to
mid 70s from north to south.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
Dry high pressure is expected to persist Wednesday night into
Thursday before a broad upper trough pattern brings potentially
unsettled weather into the weekend. There remain substantial
differences in the models regarding timing of features late in
the week. We expect an increase in rain chances beginning as
early as Thursday afternoon but more likely Friday into Sunday.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
The main forecast issue is the potential for fog and stratus
development through sunrise. At kchs, current thinking is that
mainly shallow ground fog will occur with no flight
restrictions. At ksav, current thinking is that fog and stratus
will close enough to warrant carrying a tempo group for ifr
conditions. PrevailingVFR will return by 13z and remain through
the day. Could see some shower activity late in the period, but
will hold off introducing anything with this forecast.

Extended aviation outlook: flight restrictions possible Monday
night as a warm front lifts north through the area. CIGS could
lower to MVFR ifr at times with increasing chances for showers.

It should becomeVFR on Tuesday with brief restrictions possible
in convection rains along a cold front.VFR expected mid week
with chances for increasing lower clouds and showers late week.

Marine
Tonight: west northwest winds will back to the north northeast
overnight as high pressure prevails in the wake of nestor. Winds
will remain 10 kt or less with seas subsiding to 1-3 ft through
the night.

Monday through Friday: high pressure weakening to the northeast
will result in a light onshore flow Monday. The flow will veer
to southwest by early Tuesday as a warm front lifts north
through the waters. The surging will mainly be 15 kt or less. A
cold front will move into the waters late Tuesday with much
stronger surging Tuesday night in cold air advection. We think
sca conditions are likely over ga waters beyond 20 nm with the
best jetting occurring beyond 20 nm in northwest flow. There
could be some gusts to 25 kt within 20 nm, but scas are less
likely there. Winds will decrease during mid week as high
pressure builds north of the waters. The decreasing trend will
be short as onshore winds increase again by Thursday. Seas for
much of the week will be in the 2-4 ft range, highest offshore
with a period of higher seas likely near the gulf stream Tuesday
night and early Wednesday in gusty northwest flow.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Bsh
short term...

long term... Jrl
aviation... Bsh
marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 17 mi104 min Calm 62°F 1016 hPa62°F
41033 18 mi81 min WNW 7.8 G 12 69°F 74°F1016.5 hPa
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 28 mi59 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 67°F 74°F1015.7 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 47 mi89 min W 1.9 G 4.1 65°F 1016.2 hPa (+0.6)64°F
CHTS1 48 mi59 min N 1 G 1.9 66°F 73°F1015.7 hPa

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort County Airport, SC4 mi34 minN 07.00 miFair61°F60°F100%1015.2 hPa
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC13 mi34 minN 010.00 miFair61°F60°F100%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KARW

Wind History from ARW (wind in knots)
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W11NW9NW6W4W3CalmSW3W4SW3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoE7E7E8E7E4E5E8E10
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2 days agoCalmCalmN6NE11NE11
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NE14NE12NE10NE6E5NE5NE6E6E5E3E3E4E3NE3E4NE6NE7NE8E7

Tide / Current Tables for Battery Creek, 4 mi. above entrance, Beaufort River, South Carolina
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Battery Creek
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Mon -- 12:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:04 AM EDT     7.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:41 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Mon -- 08:44 AM EDT     0.95 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:32 PM EDT     8.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:31 PM EDT     1.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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56.277.36.95.74.12.41.311.634.86.57.88.58.57.65.942.41.41.32

Tide / Current Tables for Capers Creek, Cowen Creek, St. Helena Island, Beaufort River, South Carolina
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Capers Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:52 AM EDT     7.05 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:41 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Mon -- 08:42 AM EDT     0.99 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:20 PM EDT     8.35 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:29 PM EDT     1.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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56.16.876.55.43.82.31.211.73.14.96.57.78.38.17.15.53.82.31.41.42.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.