Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ridgeland, SC

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
A bit of a wedge pattern has developed across the southeast with stout northeasterly-easterly flow across our region. Some semblance of an inverted coastal trough sits off the Florida coast, northward into the Georgia coastal waters where a smaller cluster of showers have formed over the warmer Gulf Stream waters. Some of that activity continues to pressing toward the coast south of Savannah.

Not much of a change anticipated through the night with showers off the Georgia coast trying to feed back into southeast Georgia through the course of the night. High-res guidance also hints at some additional shower activity developing off the South Carolina coast...possibly pressing toward the coast Friday morning.

Otherwise, no fog concerns with an elevated surface wind and cloud cover increasing from south to north. Low temperatures will reach the mid to upper 60s inland and low 70s along the coast. The coolest locations could dip into the low 60s, especially within northern Berkeley, Dorchester, and Colleton counties where skies remain mostly clear the longest.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
Friday: Aloft, a ridge centered across the Southeast United States will become forced offshore with the approach of mid-lvl vort energy arriving from the west. At the sfc, high pressure will maintain a fair hold across the local area well ahead of a weak cold front approaching the region from the northwest overnight. The mid-level vort max should provide sufficient forcing for a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two across far southern zones near the Altamaha River during afternoon/evening hours, where highest moisture levels reside. High temps should range in the low-mid 80s, warmest across inland areas. Overnight, the bulk of precip activity diminishes and shifts offshore with the loss of daytime heating.
Lows should range in the upper 60s inland to lower 70s closer to the coast.

Saturday and Sunday: Aloft, weak ridging breaks down as a subtle trough advances across the Southeast. At the sfc, a weak cold front arrives Saturday, slowly moving across the local area and departing to the south and offshore early Sunday. Instability is not all that impressive during fropa, but sufficient for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across coastal Georgia Saturday afternoon into early evening. Lingering moisture (PWATs between 1.5 to 2.0 inches)
and little change to high temps (low-mid 80s prior to and post fropa) could lead to another afternoon of showers and/or isolated thunderstorms across coastal Georgia Sunday afternoon/evening.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to highlight a region over the Gulf of Mexico with a 30 percent of development over the next seven days. The NHC TWO will continue to be updated with the latest information.

Global ensembles are in rather good agreement in the extended, as a mid-level ridge continues to break down and shifts off the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Coast Sunday night while an amplified mid-level low approaches from the west. By the middle of next week, wave breaking will occur in the mid-levels with an area of closed low pressure near the Canadian maritimes. This pattern would generally favor below normal precipitation with above normal temperatures turning slightly below normal.

Monday: A weak mid-level ridge will exist across the Southeast United States with temperatures rising well above normal. Generally, only low-end precipitation chances are forecast.

Tuesday and Wednesday: A cold front will cross into the Piedmont of North Carolina and reach the local area as a potent upper level wave heads east towards New England. Temperatures will trend near to below normal. Slight chance PoPs were carried for far southern zones near the Georgia coast, where deeper moisture resides.

AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV...Northeast-easterly flow will continue to spread sct-bkn cloud cover off the Atlantic and into the southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina coast through Friday. However, overall VFR conditions are anticipated through the period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV through much of the period. Brief MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys are possible with low clouds and showers associated with weak cold fronts Saturday and Tuesday.

MARINE
Tonight: Building high pressure extending from the Northeastern U.S. will allow northeast flow to prevail across the local waters through the night. Wind speeds will peak this evening around 15-20 kt with gusts just shy of 25 kt, dropping to 10-15 kt late tonight. Seas will build in response to the persistent and increased northeast flow, as well as increasing swell energy. Seas will average 2-4 feet across the nearshore waters out to 20 nm and 4-5 feet for the outer Georgia waters from 20-60 nm.

Friday through Tuesday: High pressure will prevail across local waters through Friday, resulting in northeast winds gusting up to 15- 20 kt and seas between 2-4 ft nearshore and 4-5 ft offshore. On Saturday, a weak cold front should cross local waters, shifting high pressure further offshore. The pressure gradient will become somewhat enhanced, favoring a slight uptick in northeast winds with gusts around 20 kt more common. Seas will also build to 3-4 ft across nearshore waters and around 5 ft across offshore waters. By Saturday evening, a Small Craft Advisory could be needed for offshore Georgia waters due to 6 ft seas. A persistent northeast wind should maintain 5-6 ft seas across offshore Georgia waters Sunday and Monday, followed by additional increases in seas and gusty northeast winds across all waters with the arrival of another cold front on Tuesday. Small Craft Advisories could eventually be needed for most local waters heading into the middle of next week.

Rip Currents: The combination of northeast winds around 15 kt and swells of 2 ft every 10 seconds will result in a Moderate Risk of rip currents along the entire coast through Friday and likely through Saturday. An enhanced risk for rip currents could linger into early next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Northeast winds could maintain tidal departures up to 1 ft near the timing of high tide Friday morning. Given the astronomical tides around 6 ft MLLW Friday morning, water levels along the Charleston/Colleton coast could reach 7 ft MLLW and lead to minor coastal flooding. Coastal Flood Advisories could eventually be needed.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.