NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
The local region remains between a stationary front to the south and east, with another stationary front to the north and west, while a short wave embedded within the southern stream of the flow aloft is found in the northern Gulf of Mexico. As that feature approaches overnight and towards morning we do anticipate some better forcing in sync with the already elevated PWat to generate some showers developing in southeast Georgia, mainly near and south of I-16 through 6 am. Extensive cloud cover will prevent temperatures from dropping much more through the night, with actual lows below climo; mid and upper 60s inland, closer to 70F degrees closer to the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
Aloft, a large mid-upper lvl trough will pivot eastward across the Northeast United States with weak h5 shortwave energy rippling across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast states early week. At the sfc, a weak front will shift offshore early Sunday, perhaps dissipating while a more well defined front is draped west-east across the Gulf of Mexico, Florida and into the western Atlantic. High pressure is expected to build inland on Sunday behind the weak front, but lingering moisture along with favorable position of a h25 jet should result in few to scattered showers across a bulk of the local area, with even numerous showers along with a few thunderstorms possible, across coastal areas in Southeast Georgia. Very little change in the pattern occurs Monday and Tuesday in regards to h25 jetting aloft, sfc high pressure prevailing inland, and a nearly stationary front south and offshore. Guidance does indicate drier air filtering into inland areas where high pressure holds firm, but higher moisture and weak coastal troughing attempting to develop just south of the region could help produce few to scattered showers along coastal and southern areas heading into the middle of the week. A few thunderstorms can not be ruled out as well, mainly across coastal Georgia.

Temperatures will continue to be unseasonably cool but slightly moderating by mid-week. High temps in the upper 70s on Sunday should warm into the low-mid 80s by Tuesday. Low temps will generally range in the mid-upper 60s away from the coast Monday night, then dip to around 60 well inland to mid-upper 60s closer to the coast Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
A ridge of high pressure will continue to extend into the region Wednesday through late week. A coastal trough looks to take shape later in the period, possibly evolving into a weak low. This could result in a wetter weather pattern if this comes to fruition. For now, PoPs remain in the slight chance to chance category through Wednesday, highest closer to the coast, before increasing to chance and likely categories heading through the second half of the week, highest across coastal Georgia. Temperatures remain a few degrees below seasonal norms.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR will prevail early this morning, before showers start developing by 12-14Z as a short wave aloft approaches. Aided by additional forcing from the upper jet, the rains will become a bit heavier around 16-18Z, before tapering off late in the day. There remain strong indications of MVFR ceilings developing around the onset or shortly thereafter of the rains, potentially even into the IFR range at times. Even after the rains taper off, MVFR or possible IFR ceilings will persist into tonight.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Periodic flight restrictions are likely, mainly due to low clouds. TEMPO flight restrictions are possible at the terminals heading into the middle of next week, but become more likely due to showers and thunderstorms starting Thursday next week.

MARINE
Overnight: Building high pressure will begin to move in before morning across our South Carolina waters, while a stationary front lingers not far from the Georgia waters. Winds will become N and increase to around 10-12 kt on the northern waters, and eventually become N on the Georgia waters less than 10 kt late.
Seas just 2 or 3 feet throughout. Mariners can expect scattered showers to begin forming as we approach morning.

Sunday through Thursday: High pressure will build behind a weak front shifting across the region, setting up a pinched pressure gradient across the region and a persistent northeast to east flow across local waters early into the middle of next week. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for a large portion of local waters Monday and possibly through the middle of the week while the enhanced pressure gradient persists. Northeast/east winds gusting around 25 kt and seas building up to 6-7 ft (largest across offshore Georgia waters) will be common.

Rip Currents: Gusty NE winds along with swell around 7-8 seconds, favors a Moderate Risk for rip currents along all beaches Monday. An elevated risk for rip currents will persist into the middle of next week.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.