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FXUS64 KSHV 081755 AAA AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1155 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 1035 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Extensive low cigs persist across the Wrn half of the area this morning, with a higher cu field observed farther E across SCntrl AR/Ncntrl and NE LA, with areas of isentropic forcing evident over portions of Deep E TX and NCntrl LA along a SWrly 35-40kt LLJ.
This isentropic forcing may persist through the afternoon, although a weak shortwave embedded in the SW flow noted over N LA which has enhanced the isentropic lift this morning remains progged to exit the area by early afternoon. Not expecting much erosion in the cigs today which will limit insolation, but a tightening pressure gradient over the Srn Plains into much of the region will yield an increase in low level warm advection, which should result in temps climbing into the upper 60s/lower 70s this afternoon.

Did not make many changes to the max temp forecast, but did add slight chance pops for portions of SCntrl AR today as -RA has recently measured at ELD. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast is on track.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Low MVFR cigs will persist through much if not all of the 08/18Z TAF period across the majority of the region, with the exception of the ELD/MLU terminals, where low VFR cigs should continue. Some patchy areas of -RA will also be possible this afternoon/evening over portions of Deep E TX/N LA, but any should be brief and not affect vsbys and thus, no mention was included in the TAFs attm.
The low cigs may also lift/become low VFR at TYR by mid to late afternoon, but this should be brief before additional MVFR cigs develop/spread N across this terminal after 03Z Saturday. Isolated convection may develop after 03Z across SE OK/portions of SW AR, but any should remain N of the TXK/ELD terminals and thus, no thunder mention was added attm. Some slow improvement to cigs may occur by the end of the TAF period (late Saturday morning), but MVFR cigs should persist before possibly becoming low VFR by early/mid afternoon. Any convection that develops Saturday will be after the end of the 18Z TAF period, and mainly ESE of a LFK-SHV- ELD line by late afternoon through the evening. S winds 8-13kts this afternoon, with occasional higher gusts to 20-25kts possible mainly over E TX/extreme NW LA through early Saturday morning.

15

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 73 66 75 42 / 20 40 70 40 MLU 70 63 77 42 / 20 40 90 70 DEQ 68 54 66 33 / 20 70 40 10 TXK 69 61 69 37 / 10 60 60 20 ELD 68 60 73 37 / 20 60 80 50 TYR 74 64 71 39 / 10 20 40 10 GGG 74 65 74 39 / 10 30 50 20 LFK 72 65 77 41 / 20 20 70 40

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

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Shreveport, LA,