Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Beaufort, SC

KEY MESSAGES
- 1) Locally heavy rainfall is possible today Saturday as a stalled front remains in the vicinity of the SC Lowcountry.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Locally heavy rainfall is possible today Saturday as a stalled front remains in the vicinity of the SC Lowcountry.

A stalled cold front can be analyzed just to the NW of the local forecast area. Aloft, the region will remain positioned along the southern periphery of a mid-level trough along the Eastern Seaboard. Convection today will again be driven by both the stalled front and the sea breeze. The 00Z HRRR, 3 km NAM, and the RRFS indicate that convection could be a little slow to develop, with the bulk of activity occurring this evening. This is likely due to these models depicting a pinned sea breeze, struggling to progress inland until later in the afternoon.
Heavy rainfall will be possible today, with PWATs forecast to surge upwards of 2.5". It is worth noting that the 00Z KCHS RAOB Sounding had a PWAT of 2.36". Additionally, forecast soundings show tall, skinny CAPE profiles with around 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE. Models continue to paint the heaviest rainfall threat exists along the immediate coast, with the 00Z HRRR showing 10% probability of 3" in 3 hours along the coastline this evening.
The SC coastline will likely see the highest rainfall totals, given the proximity to the stalled front. The Weather Prediction Center continues to advertise a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall today across the SC Lowcountry and a Marginal Risk elsewhere. While there is a threat of stationary/training storms, forecast soundings show that storm motions should be greater than on Friday. Rainfall amounts across the SC Lowcountry are forecast to be 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR to start the 06Z TAF period at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV.
Showers/tstorms will likely bring temporary restrictions to KCHS/KJZI this afternoon/evening, reflected in the TEMPO group at each terminal. Confidence in impacts to KSAV is lower, with the tstorm threat conveyed within a PROB30 group at that terminal.

Extended Aviation Outlook: A stationary front nearby will continue to bring periods of flight restrictions through Sunday due to showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
Today through Thursday: A stationary front nearby will bring southwesterly winds today. Winds will briefly veer to the north and northeast on Sunday, then again Monday morning, followed by a shift to the southeast Monday afternoon. Winds will become elevated Tuesday night into Wednesday and Small Craft Advisories may be needed for portions of the local waters.

CLIMATE
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 25: KCHS: 80/2011 KCXM: 82/2016 KSAV: 80/1893

July 29: KCHS: 80/2016

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.