Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Canton, MS

DISCUSSION
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Tonight and Monday: Similar to yesterday afternoon the local radars were lit up with numerous showers and thunderstorms. The atmospheric parameters are not as favorable today for damaging wind gusts but strong wind gusts and locally heavy downpours are possible. The morning JAN sounding had a PWAT of two inches and a surface ridge nosing west across the northern Gulf will help maintain a moist airmass across our CWA through Monday. Mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed another shortwave trough dropping through the central Plains. This shortwave will continue dropping southeast and over our CWA tonight then linger over our CWA through Monday. The convection this afternoon will see a distinct diurnal trend and dissipate from the south this evening but across the north there will remain low chances of rain tonight due to the approaching shortwave. Monday will be similar to today with early morning convection across the north. Daytime heating of our moist airmass combined with the weakened shortwave trough overhead will lead to numerous coverage over convection during the afternoon. The high rain chances and associated cloud cover will once again hold most sites a little cooler than normal. /22/

Monday night through Saturday night: Overall, we expect a warming trend with a gradual decrease in rain chances during the long term, especially as we go through late week and into next weekend. The remnant trough over the lower/mid MS Valley will continue to serve as a weakness between expanding subtropical high centers, one over the southwest CONUS and another over the western Atlantic, through mid week - this very warm and humid pattern will favor additional diurnally driven thunderstorm activity during this time.

Later in the week, the trough will dissipate entirely with the high centers bridging into a larger and warmer subtropical ridge axis, and this is depicted well in model vorticity output. The increased anticyclonic flow will result in above normal heat and reduced rain chances by Fri/Sat. Accordingly, shortwave energy that has been reinforcing the current trough and active convective pattern, will keep more in line with the westerlies well to our north per latest global model guidance, and this should limit any organized thunderstorm potential. Heat stress levels could become impactful enough for graphic messaging and perhaps headlines by this time as well. /EC/

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Flight categories are forecast to fall to MVFR/IFR status toward day break this morning, as low stratus is expected to develop across the area. These will rebound to VFR status by late morning, in time for scattered to numerous showers and storms to develop across the area. Afternoon convection will again result in a degradation of flight categories to MVFR/IFR status, if convection is observed within a site's aerodrome. Gusty wind, heavy downpours, and frequent lightning will be possible with the most intense storms. Winds will be light to calm overnight, becoming south southwest around 10 knots away from convection. /19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 89 72 89 74 / 70 40 60 0 Meridian 91 71 90 73 / 70 30 70 10 Vicksburg 88 73 90 75 / 70 30 40 0 Hattiesburg 92 73 92 75 / 80 20 80 10 Natchez 87 73 88 74 / 70 20 50 0 Greenville 85 72 88 74 / 80 30 30 0 Greenwood 88 72 88 74 / 80 50 50 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.