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FXUS64 KJAN 081155 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 555 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

New AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 354 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Today through tonight: Increasing warm advection ahead of a significant upper level trough will bring milder and more humid conditions to the forecast area as we go through tonight. A minor disturbance in southwest flow aloft should help initiate a few showers later today into this evening. Any rainfall in our area will be light during the near term and mostly confined to western and northern portions of the area. /EC/

Saturday through Thursday night: The main focus in the extended will be the strong storm system moving across the area Saturday through Saturday night. By Saturday afternoon the cold front will be poised across the Delta, with increasing development of showers/storms. The front will move across the area during the afternoon through the evening hours, before moving east of the area after midnight. With good instability, steep mid level lapse rates and decent shear, severe storms are likely. Initially there could be a few more cellular storms, but as the day progresses, expect the storms to become more linear as the line of storms progresses across the area. Expect the primary risk to be damaging wind gusts and large hail, but a few tornadoes will be possible.
A slight risk is already in effect for most of the area, with a marginal risk for the east and southeast.

A few showers could linger in the east Saturday night, but expect all of the activity to be east of the area by Sunday morning. Much cooler air will build in behind the front on Sunday, with highs ranging from the mid 40s across the delta to the mid 50s in the Pine Belt Region. High pressure will build across the are Sunday night into Monday, with lows ranging from the upper 20s to low 30s. High pressure will continue through the end of the period, with mostly sunny skies and highs in mid/upper 50s and lows in the 30s each day./15/

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

There will be an increasing threat for MVFR category ceilings at all taf sites later today through tonight as lower cloud decks become more prevalent. Increasing southerly flow will bring gusty winds to the surface in what will be a strongly mixed airmass this afternoon and evening. By late tonight, the mixing and wind will subside this could allow a greater potential for IFR category stratus to develop, especially over southern and eastern portions of the area. /EC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 69 60 76 42 / 20 30 70 90 Meridian 69 58 76 45 / 10 30 60 100 Vicksburg 71 62 77 42 / 20 30 90 90 Hattiesburg 71 59 78 49 / 10 10 50 100 Natchez 70 62 76 42 / 30 20 70 90 Greenville 66 61 74 41 / 30 40 90 70 Greenwood 67 61 74 41 / 20 40 90 90

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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Jackson/Brandon, MS,