NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS64 KJAN 091109 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 509 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

New DISCUSSION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 508 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Today through tonight: A severe weather event continues to look possible for this afternoon into tonight, especially for northwest/northern portions of the forecast area. A large upper level trough and associated cold front are forecast to cross the Plains and approach the MS Valley as we go from today through tonight. Strong west-southwest flow aloft at the base of the trough will bring a drier elevated mixed layer over the area and this will support steeper mid level lapse rates while diminishing deep layer moisture somewhat.

When looking for features of this potential event that stand out, the instability is one of them (e.g., HRRR ML CAPE up to 2000 j/kg), along with effective deep layer shear shear (approaching 50-60 kt), however low level parameters including 0-3 km CAPE and low level SRH are relatively lackluster, making the threat for tornadoes more questionable. While deep layer shear may orient more parallel with the front to support linear convective structures, the modest large scale ascent associated with the positively tilted trough coinciding with vigorous updraft potential may initially limit upscale convective growth and support supercell development/storm clusters. This will be something to closely monitor for, especially in the upper Delta to North Central MS around the time of sunset into the early evening.
From there, storms should become more organized with an increasing damaging wind threat, but expect storms to diminish intensity as they encounter less instability over eastern/southern MS later in the night. Having said that, given the erratic/uncertain storm mode and potential for one or two storms to over-achieve , it would be a good idea to see this entire event through before assuming it is winding down.

Expect colder air associated with an impressive thermal trough to be ushered in behind the front with gusty NNW wind late tonight as post-frontal light rainfall continues to impact the area. /EC/

Sunday through Friday night...The upper trough will move across the area on Sunday, with showers continuing across much of the area Sunday morning, but should end from west to east during the afternoon. Much cooler air will build in behind the front on Sunday, with highs ranging from the mid 40s across the delta to the mid 50s in the Pine Belt Region. High pressure will build across the are Sunday night into Monday, with lows ranging from the upper 20s to low 30s. Surface high pressure will continue on Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the upper 50s to around 60 and lows in the low 30s. Little will change on Thursday with slightly warmer temperatures. Another storms system will approach the area late in the period, with increased potential for showers and storms./15/

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1056 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Radars showed scattered -SHRA across the eastern half of MS and additional -SHRA may come in vcty of the western TAF sites after 09Z. Otherwise gradually lowering cigs to MVFR and then to a mix of MVFR/IFR conditions develop by 12Z areawide. These lower conditions wl continue through 18Z before improving to VFR conditions by 21Z. A gusty south to southwest wind of 20kts wl be observed at most TAF sites through the TAF period. A line of TSRA will move across the TAF sites along and ahead of a cold front Saturday evening. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 76 43 51 30 / 50 80 30 0 Meridian 77 46 55 29 / 40 90 50 0 Vicksburg 77 43 53 29 / 60 90 20 0 Hattiesburg 79 49 56 31 / 30 90 40 0 Natchez 77 44 53 30 / 60 80 20 0 Greenville 75 41 50 30 / 70 50 10 0 Greenwood 73 40 49 28 / 70 70 20 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Jackson/Brandon, MS,