Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Canton, MS
May 17, 2024 5:14 PM CDT (22:14 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:58 AM Sunset 7:54 PM Moonrise 2:41 PM Moonset 2:52 AM |
FXUS64 KJAN 171945 AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 245 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
New DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Through Saturday...
Overall fcst is running generally on track. Water vapor/RAP analysis this aftn indicated stalled upper low parked over the central Plains, with widespread moist ascent over the warm frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast. Earlier heavy rain has let up, with continued potential for some late aftn redevelopment in the Pine Belt. With trends shifting southward in convective allowing models, the flooding threat/Flood Watch were adjusted southeastward through the evening hours & trimmed back through Saturday morning. Nearly 99th percentile PWs & 925-850mb 340-350K Theta E will persist across southeastern portions of the area.
Increased destabilization is ongoing as anticipated in a tight gradient in the Pine Belt, with best potential for any aftn redevelopment in the Hwy 98 corridor & to I-59 corridors. The ongoing severe potential could be at earliest in the next few hours but most likely into late evening to overnight in the Hwy 98 to I-59 corridors in the Pine Belt in southeast MS. Adjustments have been made to Severe threat in HWO graphics, with main focus being for damaging wind, hail quarter to golf ball size & tornadoes possible, especially in the Hwy 98 to I-59 corridors.
Some low tornado threat in sfc mesoanalysis exists if any aftn redevelopment occurs, with large hail up to golf ball size most likely in the moderately unstable air & 50-60kts mean bulk shear.
Damaging winds & some hail threat will persist into the overnight hours. Flash flooding threat will likely peaking back up in the Pine Belt late tonight but made adjustment to current Flood Watch to account for a smaller areal configuration & trimmed it down in time. HWO graphics were adjusted accordingly. As the upper low swings into the area on Saturday, some persistent westerly bulk shear around 30-35kts & mid-level lapse rates around 6-6.5 deg.
C/mid 20s vertical totals & freezing levels around 12.5-13kft that could support some isolated severe threat with damaging winds & quarter size hail. Timing looks to be the mid- morning through early evening hours. After the rain & storms move into the Pine Belt in the morning, there could be the a brief lull in the Natchez Trace corridor before more scattered to numerous showers & storms move across the eastern-central portions of MS. In terms of sensible weather, expect gradual moderation into the low-mid 80s & some increase in heat/humidity.
Late weekend through early next week (Sunday-next Thursday)...
Late weekend (Sunday): Upper low will swing into the Appalachians, with ridging at the sfc & aloft building in from west-east. This will drive in drier air into Sunday. Expect moderation of highs in the mid- upper 80s Sunday, with increasing potential heat & humidity.
Next week (Monday-Wednesday): As the mid-level & sfc ridge builds in, increased warm advection will bring up low-level temps into the upper teens to low 20s degree C at 850-925mb layers. Expect highs to moderate to seasonably warm into the low 90s & lows in the mid-upper 60s while to low-mid 70s northwest of the Natchez Trace. Heat & humidity will be on the rise around midweek with heat indices climbing into mid-upper 90s. Low-level return flow won't pick back up until by late Monday evening through midweek, with rain & storm chances picking back up around mid-late week, northwest of the Natchez Trace on Wednesday & north of I-20 on Thursday. There could be some organization to the next trough/frontal system for some organized convection late week, but there is plenty of time to iron out as we get closer. /DC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Cigs are improving across the CWA as an elevated storm system dissipates out of our area. Improvements in vis will continue through the afternoon. MVFR cigs will continue across MEI/HBG/PIB for the remainder of the period as a potential chance for more precipitation occurring after 00z lingers. /AJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 67 83 65 87 / 20 50 10 10 Meridian 67 84 64 88 / 40 70 20 10 Vicksburg 67 85 67 88 / 20 40 10 0 Hattiesburg 68 84 66 89 / 60 60 10 10 Natchez 66 84 66 88 / 30 30 10 0 Greenville 68 84 67 88 / 30 50 0 0 Greenwood 67 83 65 88 / 20 60 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MSZ057-058-064>066- 072>074.
LA...None.
AR...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 245 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
New DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Through Saturday...
Overall fcst is running generally on track. Water vapor/RAP analysis this aftn indicated stalled upper low parked over the central Plains, with widespread moist ascent over the warm frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast. Earlier heavy rain has let up, with continued potential for some late aftn redevelopment in the Pine Belt. With trends shifting southward in convective allowing models, the flooding threat/Flood Watch were adjusted southeastward through the evening hours & trimmed back through Saturday morning. Nearly 99th percentile PWs & 925-850mb 340-350K Theta E will persist across southeastern portions of the area.
Increased destabilization is ongoing as anticipated in a tight gradient in the Pine Belt, with best potential for any aftn redevelopment in the Hwy 98 corridor & to I-59 corridors. The ongoing severe potential could be at earliest in the next few hours but most likely into late evening to overnight in the Hwy 98 to I-59 corridors in the Pine Belt in southeast MS. Adjustments have been made to Severe threat in HWO graphics, with main focus being for damaging wind, hail quarter to golf ball size & tornadoes possible, especially in the Hwy 98 to I-59 corridors.
Some low tornado threat in sfc mesoanalysis exists if any aftn redevelopment occurs, with large hail up to golf ball size most likely in the moderately unstable air & 50-60kts mean bulk shear.
Damaging winds & some hail threat will persist into the overnight hours. Flash flooding threat will likely peaking back up in the Pine Belt late tonight but made adjustment to current Flood Watch to account for a smaller areal configuration & trimmed it down in time. HWO graphics were adjusted accordingly. As the upper low swings into the area on Saturday, some persistent westerly bulk shear around 30-35kts & mid-level lapse rates around 6-6.5 deg.
C/mid 20s vertical totals & freezing levels around 12.5-13kft that could support some isolated severe threat with damaging winds & quarter size hail. Timing looks to be the mid- morning through early evening hours. After the rain & storms move into the Pine Belt in the morning, there could be the a brief lull in the Natchez Trace corridor before more scattered to numerous showers & storms move across the eastern-central portions of MS. In terms of sensible weather, expect gradual moderation into the low-mid 80s & some increase in heat/humidity.
Late weekend through early next week (Sunday-next Thursday)...
Late weekend (Sunday): Upper low will swing into the Appalachians, with ridging at the sfc & aloft building in from west-east. This will drive in drier air into Sunday. Expect moderation of highs in the mid- upper 80s Sunday, with increasing potential heat & humidity.
Next week (Monday-Wednesday): As the mid-level & sfc ridge builds in, increased warm advection will bring up low-level temps into the upper teens to low 20s degree C at 850-925mb layers. Expect highs to moderate to seasonably warm into the low 90s & lows in the mid-upper 60s while to low-mid 70s northwest of the Natchez Trace. Heat & humidity will be on the rise around midweek with heat indices climbing into mid-upper 90s. Low-level return flow won't pick back up until by late Monday evening through midweek, with rain & storm chances picking back up around mid-late week, northwest of the Natchez Trace on Wednesday & north of I-20 on Thursday. There could be some organization to the next trough/frontal system for some organized convection late week, but there is plenty of time to iron out as we get closer. /DC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Cigs are improving across the CWA as an elevated storm system dissipates out of our area. Improvements in vis will continue through the afternoon. MVFR cigs will continue across MEI/HBG/PIB for the remainder of the period as a potential chance for more precipitation occurring after 00z lingers. /AJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 67 83 65 87 / 20 50 10 10 Meridian 67 84 64 88 / 40 70 20 10 Vicksburg 67 85 67 88 / 20 40 10 0 Hattiesburg 68 84 66 89 / 60 60 10 10 Natchez 66 84 66 88 / 30 30 10 0 Greenville 68 84 67 88 / 30 50 0 0 Greenwood 67 83 65 88 / 20 60 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MSZ057-058-064>066- 072>074.
LA...None.
AR...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMBO BRUCE CAMPBELL FIELD,MS | 9 sm | 19 min | calm | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 77°F | 77°F | 100% | 29.76 | |
| KJAN JACKSONMEDGAR WILEY EVERS INTL,MS | 15 sm | 20 min | S 06 | 10 sm | Overcast | 77°F | 70°F | 78% | 29.77 | |
| KHKS HAWKINS FIELD,MS | 19 sm | 21 min | calm | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 79°F | 70°F | 74% | 29.77 |
Jackson/Brandon, MS,
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