FXUS64 KBMX 262031 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 331 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

New LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024

This afternoon.

Highly amplified longwave ridging was over much of the Central Plains and Midwest with the strongest portion of ridging over portions of Southeast California and Southwest Arizona along with Northern Baja California. Longwave positive troughing extended over much of the Northeast part of the country southwest to over the Eastern half of the Ohio River Valley Region. A weakness in the mid levels aloft is persisting over much of the Lower Mississippi River Valley Region to our west. A stationary front extended from the Northern Plains southeast across Missouri and east straddling the Kentucky and Tennessee State Line. Expansive surface high pressure was centered across the Eastern Great Lakes Region. RAP 13 km mesoanalysis depicts a diffuse 700 mb low over North Mississippi and Southwest Tennessee. There are a few shortwaves over North Mississippi, North Alabama and South South Tennessee that were supporting showers and some thunderstorms across these areas. Closer to home, a weak shortwave was analyzed over Central Alabama that was providing just enough support for a few light showers that were on radar moving northeast just south and east of the Birmingham Metro area.

Expect mostly cloudy skies northwest while fair skies will persist across portions of the south-central and southeast counties this afternoon. Coastal convection across South Mississippi and East Louisiana will progress northward through the afternoon with some of this activity potentially affecting our southwest counties later this afternoon while some showers and a few storms will be possible across our northern and western counties this afternoon as disturbances aloft continue to move northeast toward our area. Winds will be from the northwest at 4-8 mph and high temperatures will range from the low 80s far northwest to the low 90s south.

Tonight.

The general weakness aloft will persist over the Mid-South and ArkLaTex region while a few mid-level disturbances continue to move northeast roughly along the Natchez Trace Parkway extent. The surface front to our north will slowly drift south, extending from the Northern Plains southeast into Central Tennessee overnight. Expansive surface high pressure will migrate east, becoming centered over Southwest New York State after midnight.

Isolated showers and a few storms will be possible across the western third of the area tonight with lower chances further to the east and southeast. Patchy fog is expected to develop across portions of the northern and eastern counties before sunrise on Saturday. Winds will become northeast at 2-4 mph with low temperatures ranging from around 70 across the northeast third of the area to low and mid 70s southwest.

Saturday.

The mid-level weakness moves further west on Saturday, becoming positioned over the Arkansas Ozarks. The surface front to our north advances south into the area during the day Saturday while more disturbances aloft move northeast over the northwest portion of the area through the day.

Expect increasing clouds from the west during the day Saturday with increasing chances for scattered showers and some thunderstorms initially across the western counties early in the morning, then expanding eastward through the rest of the day.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially across the west-central counties and multiple rounds of heavy rain impacting urban and poor drainage areas may result in water ponding. Winds will become east to southeast at 5-10 mph and high temperatures will range from the mid 80s far north to the low 90s southeast.

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