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FXUS64 KBMX 020117 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 717 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

New SHORT TERM

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 713 PM CST FRI DEC 1 2023

No major changes to the forecast tonight into tomorrow. I have added mention for fog, developing and persisting through the night ahead of any shower activity that moves in. This fog could be dense at times, so those with morning commutes will need to allow extra time, especially in fog-prone areas.

25/Owen

Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 130 PM CST FRI DEC 1 2023

Central Alabama remains entrenched within southwesterly flow aloft with a longwave trough axis moving eastward from the Rocky Mountain states. The upper trough is encountering resistance from a strong 590 decameter ridge centered over Cuba. This blocking pattern will keep Central Alabama within an active pattern through Saturday, with several rounds of showers and storms expected to move from southwest to northeast across the area. We've already seen the first round of rain push eastward this morning, keeping Central Alabama fairly dry this afternoon except for lingering showers across the far southeast counties. Meanwhile, stronger storms are currently moving east along the Florida Panhandle and far southern Alabama where surface-based instability currently resides. The warm front is starting to lift northward over Mississippi and far southwestern Alabama, but questions still remain as to how far north the front will get this afternoon and into this evening. With the best instability essentially cut off due to prior convection along the coast, severe weather chances have been all but eliminated this afternoon for our southern counties with the low-level jet exiting off to the northeast.

As the warm front finally lifts northward into Central Alabama overnight tonight through Saturday morning, we'll watch the next round of showers and storms develop in Louisiana and Mississippi.
Deep layer southwesterly flow will continue to support the development of multiple rounds of showers and storms, with a lingering chance of strong storms across our far southern counties once again. A majority of the latest high-res guidance members early this afternoon are suggesting a good chance for MCS activity to develop along the immediate Gulf Coast. If this materializes, it will cut us off once again, preventing any chances for severe storms while also greatly reducing rainfall amounts across the northern half of Central Alabama. For now, we've left in the low- end chance for an isolated severe storm or two across our far southern counties. We could see the most widespread showers with embedded storms moving through between midnight and 7am, then become more scattered in nature by midday through Saturday afternoon. That would be the case if the coastal convection scenario materializes, and we'll continue to monitor mesoscale trends through the overnight hours. The kicker shortwave finally ejects eastward over the southern Plains which will help to move the surface front closer to Alabama through Saturday evening.

56/GDG

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM CST FRI DEC 1 2023

The area remains under the influence of active southwesterly flow Saturday night through Sunday, before drier air and a cold front arrive. There could be a lull in rainfall Saturday evening, as one shortwave moves off to the east. A trough and associated cold front will approach from the west, and wind profiles increase, overnight Saturday. Expect coverage to increase especially across the east before sunrise. The front will move across the area Sunday, with most of the area dry by Sunday afternoon. Ridging builds across the southern CONUS next week, leading to dry conditions for Central Alabama through the work week.

Made some adjustments to rain chances Sat night thru Sunday, but overall forecast is in good shape.

14

Previous long-term discussion: (Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 329 AM CST FRI DEC 1 2023

Sunday through Monday.

A southwest flow will prevail over the area Saturday night through much of the day Sunday as a shortwave trough swings northeast around the longwave trough abase to our west. Another shortwave will dive southeast from over the North-Central Plains and dig southeast over the Mid-South and cross over the Tennessee Valley Region during the day on Monday. A cold front will move southeast, becoming positioned roughly along the Interstate 20 corridor by Saturday evening. The cold front will continue to push southeast, moving out of the state by mid Sunday morning while another cold front will approach from the northwest and pass in dry fashion by Sunday evening.

Rain chances will be highest across the east and southeast counties overnight Saturday into the pre-dawn hours on Sunday with shower activity becoming more isolated further west toward the AL/MS state line. A few thunderstorms will remain possible across the far southeast, though most of the available instability for any heavier activity should be exhausted by this time. Lows Sunday will range from near 50 far northwest to the low 60s far southeast with highs from the mid 60s northwest to the low 70s southeast.

Cloudy skies will persist areawide to start Monday followed by gradually decreasing clouds from the northwest through the afternoon hours. Other than a small chance for a few lingering showers far southeast early, dry conditions will return areawide by mid-morning. Lows will range from the upper 30s northwest to the upper 40s southeast. Highs will range from the upper 50s northeast to the mid 60s south and southwest.

Tuesday through Thursday.

A more zonal flow pattern will develop aloft while broad troughing remains over the Midwest, Ohio Valley and Northeast.
Another shortwave will dive southeast over the Tennessee Valley Region Tuesday night into Wednesday while amplified ridging rapidly builds over the Intermountain West. The overall pattern amplitude will increase with a general northwest flow pattern forming over the area into the day Wednesday and persisting through Thursday.

Surface high pressure across the Southern Plains will build eastward late Monday into Tuesday across the region while a cold front dives southward across the Central Plains and Midwest. The cold front will eventually push southeast further into the area in dry fashion late Tuesday into Wednesday and will decelerate as it pushes further south offshore of the Central Gulf Coast. Surface high pressure is forecast to build eastward further into the region during the day on Thursday.

Expect fair skies and dry conditions to persist from Tuesday through Thursday. Lows Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will range from the mid 30s north to around 40 south. Highs Tuesday will be in the low to mid 60s across much of the area. A noticable cool- down will occur with the passage of the dry front with highs Wednesday struggling to reach 50 far north and far east to readings in the mid 50s south followed by lows from around 30 north to the mid 30s far southeast Thursday morning with highs Thursday from the mid 50s far north and east to near 60 south and west.

05

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 PM CST FRI DEC 1 2023

MVFR to IFR conditions are expected at all terminals. Low CIGs and fog are expected to develop the closer to 06z we get, the biggest uncertainty is exactly when the CIGs and VIS will begin dropping.
They've already begun across northern Alabama, and that's expected to spread into BHM, ANB, and ASN in the 2-6 hours. Meanwhile, rain showers will build into Central AL from the southwest mainly after 06z and will continue through the end of the period. I've removed the prob30s for TSRA in this forecast, though I don't think thunderstorms are completely out of the realm of possibility. I think if any TS were to develop, it would be for our western and southern terminals, but confidence remains low at this time, though we may have to re-add prob30s as we see how the system evolves. Overall, I think ceiling will remain low for much of the period once they do eventually drop. Visibility will be tricky as fog develops just before rain showers move in.

25/Owen

FIRE WEATHER

Widespread wetting rains expected through Sunday morning.
Minimum relative humidity values will remain well above critical thresholds through Sunday. Southerly 20ft winds will decrease tonight to 5-7mph, before increasing Saturday to 12-15 mph. Winds become southwesterly Saturday night.

Drier air arrives to start next week, with minimum RH values dropping below 50 percent for Monday, with northwesterly 20ft winds at 10-15mph. Drier conditions are expected through next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 57 66 57 66 / 80 90 70 20 Anniston 60 68 58 66 / 90 100 80 20 Birmingham 61 68 57 65 / 90 90 60 10 Tuscaloosa 62 69 55 67 / 90 90 50 10 Calera 61 68 57 66 / 90 90 70 10 Auburn 62 68 62 68 / 90 100 80 40 Montgomery 63 71 62 69 / 90 100 80 20 Troy 64 72 64 70 / 90 100 80 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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