Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Billingsley, AL

DISCUSSION
(This afternoon through next Wednesday)
Issued at 130 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025

Get out there and enjoy the mildest and rain-free day combined for the next week with 70s areawide being currently noted across C AL along with surface ridging across a large chunk of E Conus.

We are continuing to tweak as we get closer to this weekend, but our overall thinking is similar to this morning. The pattern will shift on Friday with an approaching shortwave. This disturbance will be the first of multiple waves expected this weekend. Rain chances will start to return late Friday morning with chances increasing as the afternoon progresses and dew point/overall moisture increases. The highest chances will be Friday night into Saturday morning. There continues to be a low chance of a few strong to severe tstorms late Fri afternoon/evening that could become strong to marginally severe, with the best chances for strong storms in the WRN counties. Overall the activity should be weakening some as it gets into C AL and away from the main system. The primary concern will be straight-line winds with any of the stronger storms and large hail.

There is a low chance for a few strong to marginal tstorms again on Saturday with another wave ahead of our 2nd frontal system.
Saturday looks to have less instability than Friday, but cannot rule out an isolated stronger storm, with the main threat will be damaging winds.

Confidence continues to increase for frost and some freezing temperatures across the NRN counties for Sun night behind our 2nd potent cold front. Mon night is looking like a slam dunk for everyone not only going below freezing but likely well into the 20s.

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Previous discussion: (Today through next Wednesday)
Issued at 121 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025

Today and Tonight:

GOES Nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery indicates some areas of fog developing across Mississippi and southern Alabama. HRRR fog probabilities and LAMP guidance indicate medium chances for this fog to reach southwestern portions of Central Alabama and as far east as Montgomery. Elsewhere, patchy fog is also developing near bodies of water. Will monitor for any need for a dense fog advisory. A weak front is currently stalling near the AL/TN border and will lift back to the north as a warm front today. With continued zonal flow aloft expect high temperatures to remain several degrees above normal. Low temperatures won't be quite as cool tonight with light southerly winds.

Friday and Friday Night:

An initial shortwave trough will move eastward from the Missouri Valley to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night, while a surface low moves eastward across the northern Great Lakes. Cyclonic flow aloft persists Friday night and Saturday as a deep upper low near Hudson Bay and an additional shortwave diving down from the northern Rockies result in an amplified longwave trough developing. Dew points will increase across West Alabama Friday afternoon, while an approaching cold front eventually stalls out in far northwest Alabama late Friday night. Overall convective setup is generally disjointed, with a couple different waves moving through. Best upper forcing and mid-level moisture will move through from west to east early in the afternoon, and may out-run the better moisture at lower levels. Beginning to see increasing signals of convection developing at the nose of the low-level moisture return along the warm front across our southern counties initially. This could limit moisture return/instability further north. Height falls remain modest, which may help convection remain more cellular in nature.
Sufficient bulk shear will be in place for weak supercells to develop where instability is sufficient. Hodographs are fairly straight during the afternoon, favoring splitting cells and a main threat of small hail and gusty winds, with isolated severe hail/wind possible. Hodographs do get some curvature by Friday evening, though the forcing will be getting weaker, low-level flow remains modest, and instability will be dropping. Therefore the threat for a brief tornado, while non-zero, appears very low at this time. Mainly elevated convection may persist through much of the overnight hours Friday night as the front stalls and an another mid-level speed max approaches, with a threat of small hail.

Saturday through Wednesday:

Low (20-30%) chances for showers and storms persist Saturday across the northern counties near the stalled front with weak vorticity maxima in continued cyclonic flow aloft. A strong vort max moves through the Ozarks and Ohio Valley Saturday night, causing a stronger cold front to move through the area. This will bring additional showers and a low chance for a thunderstorm, with a lack of instability due to limited moisture return and a tendency for any convection to be undercut by the cold front.
Breezy northwest winds on Sunday will result in strong cold air advection.

Continued cold air advection will result in at least a light freeze across the northern half of the area Sunday night with lows in the upper 20s/wind chills near 20F in the far northern counties. Well below normal temperatures are forecast on Monday with continued northwest winds. Will keep an eye on RHs and winds for potential fire weather concerns. With light winds Monday night, low temperatures drop well into the 20s, ending the growing season for all of Central Alabama. This cold snap will be short- lived as temperatures return closer to normal by Wednesday.

32/JDavis

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour period with rain- free conditions for one more TAF cycle. Winds will be light/variable to near calm now and into the overnight hours. On Fri from ~15-16z SRLY winds will begin to pick up with mixing 5-8kts. VFR cigs will begin to move in from the SW on Friday morning ahead of our next weather system. -SHRAs should hold off until Fri afternoon, with the best chances Fri night.

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FIRE WEATHER

RH values will drop generally into the 30-40% range this afternoon with light winds. Showers and thunderstorms will move through Friday and Friday night with increasing moisture. Rain chances persist into Saturday night. A strong cold front moves through Saturday night and Sunday. RH values drop into the 25-30% range Monday with breezy conditions, resulting in conditions approaching red flag criteria.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 47 75 57 75 / 0 20 80 30 Anniston 50 74 59 75 / 0 20 80 30 Birmingham 53 74 61 76 / 0 30 80 30 Tuscaloosa 53 75 60 78 / 0 40 70 20 Calera 51 76 59 79 / 0 30 70 20 Auburn 51 75 61 77 / 0 20 70 30 Montgomery 51 77 63 81 / 0 30 60 20 Troy 51 77 61 81 / 0 30 60 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.