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FXUS64 KFWD 022354 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 554 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /This Evening through Monday Morning/

The shortwave responsible for our earlier cloudiness and light rain has exited completely and will continue to move to the northeast this evening, ushering a pseudo-front through the region. This "front"/"dryline" feature will act to bring drier air across the region and shift winds to a more westerly direction. You can currently see this feature within surface observations where winds go from south to west, and where the dewpoint temperatures sharply drop off in our western zones. Well upstream, a secondary shortwave is making its way across into Montana. While this shortwave will not affect our sensible weather in the near-term, it will have an effect at end of the weekend and early this upcoming week.

Light overnight winds, dry conditions, and clear skies will allow for radiational cooling to take place overnight, bottoming out temperatures in the mid 30s to around 40. Aside from the cool lows, primed soils and increased surface moisture in the northeast will once again set the stage for patchy fog to form. While the fog should not be dense overall, some spots could have starker visibility reductions on Sunday morning. We'll continue to keep an eye on upcoming guidance for any adjustments necessary.

That aforementioned secondary shortwave will have made it into Nebraska as a closed upper low by the afternoon on Sunday. At the surface, two areas of low pressure will have formed in response to its movement: one in the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle, and the other well to our north in Nebraska. This surface low pressure formation will tighten the pressure gradient and increase wind speeds across the region over the afternoon. The afternoon will also feature above-normal highs in the 60s and 70s thanks to W-SW winds from the surface to the mid-levels. The breezy conditions and warm temperatures will work together to promote an elevated to near- critical fire weather threat for areas mainly near and west of the I-35 corridor. The main mitigating factor in any higher threat will be a continued lack of dried out fuels. Nonetheless, avoid outdoor activities that could produce fire starts.

The upper low will move into Missouri and Illinois over the evening, ushering a cold front through the region late Sunday night. With little regional moisture to work with, this FROPA will remain dry.
Winds will shift to the north, with increased low-level CAA moving in behind the frontal boundary. We will not see too much of a cool down during the morning hours, as morning lows will range in the mid 30s to low 40s, similar to the night before.

Prater

LONG TERM
/Issued 237 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023/ /Sunday Night Through Next Week/

The prevailing dry and unseasonably warm pattern will continue well into the extended period as another mid-level shortwave trough swings across the Middle MS Valley and W/NW flow aloft.
Late Sunday into early Monday morning, the associated surface low shifting through the Central Plains will push its attendant weak cold front through North and Central TX. With PWATs near or below 0.5" ahead of the boundary and no moisture advection occurring, the FROPA should be dry and mostly unnoticed apart from a northward wind shift. Surface high pressure will fill in quickly in the wake of the front on Monday and temperatures will be a few to several degrees cooler with highs in the low to mid 60s region- wide.

Developing along the boundary between the warmer/moist Pacific air (fueled by a strong Pacific jet stream) and colder/drier Arctic air, a Canadian clipper-like system is expected to cross the Upper Midwest and dig into the Great Lakes early to mid week.
The cold front associated with this amplifying trough currently looks to reach the Red River Valley late Tuesday or early Wednesday with little fanfare. The trailing surface high pressure will quickly progress eastward, re-establishing onshore flow again Wednesday afternoon while a mid/upper level ridge amplifies just west of the region.

This pattern, though dynamic, will continue to support daytime temperatures steadily climbing to as much as 15 to 20 degrees above the calendar day 30-year averages. By the end of the work week it should begin to feel more like April than December as highs soar well into the 70s across the region. It is also becoming increasingly likely that rain chances may return as soon as next weekend in response to a broad mid-level trough that will move onshore Friday. As the trough deepens and digs eastward into the Four Corners region and stronger height falls spread towards the Rockies, lee cyclogenesis will lead to increasing southerly low-level flow across the Plains. Rapid boundary layer moisture advection will ensue with 60+ degree dewpoints anticipated along and east of I-35. Rain and thunderstorm chances are likely to become more widespread just beyond the current forecast period (in the Day 8-9 period) so look for additional details in upcoming forecast updates.

12

AVIATION
/NEW/ /00Z TAF/

VFR will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24-30 hours.
The main concerns with this issuance will be wind direction changes this evening and tomorrow.

Southerly winds will prevail over the next couple hours until a boundary will move through the TAF sites late this evening, shifting winds out of the west (~270-300 degrees), but speeds should stay less than 10 kts and not pose a crosswind impact.
By the late morning winds will have backed out of the SW. Expect speed and gust top increase, especially near and west of the I-35 corridor. The D10 sites will see higher wind speeds closer to 15 kts with gusts up to around 25 kts, while ACT is slightly lower.

Late Sunday night a cold front will shift winds to the NW around 05Z. This is past the 24 hour mark for the TAF sites and is only included in the DFW TAF at this time.

Prater


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 39 70 41 62 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 40 71 42 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 36 64 37 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 33 70 36 61 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 35 68 37 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 39 70 42 61 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 36 68 39 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 40 71 42 63 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 38 73 41 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 37 73 37 64 38 / 0 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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