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FXUS64 KFWD 190535 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1235 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Tonight through Sunday night/

The upper ridge currently over the Central and Southern Plains will shift eastward over the next 24 hours while a broader trough in the northern branch of the jet stream translates across the western CONUS. This upper pattern will allow for a surface trough to develop lee of the Central Rockies. The resultant pressure gradient will bring an increase in southerly winds to the region along with a constant fetch of Gulf moisture. The moisture surge will keep overnight lows warm (upper 60s to lower 70s) and bring early morning low clouds and patchy fog to parts of Central Texas.
The moisture return will be a bit deeper than it was Saturday morning so it may take until mid to late morning before low clouds/fog lift and dissipate. Ample afternoon sun and low level warm advection will make for a hot, breezy, and humid afternoon Sunday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and afternoon heat index values generally in the middle 90s. Warm and humid weather will continue Sunday night with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s once again. Wind speeds Sunday night will be strong enough to limit fog production.

79

LONG TERM
/Issued 222 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024/ /Sunday Night Onward/

Upper level ridging and dewpoints in the 60s and 70s will keep the beginning of this upcoming week warm, dry, and humid across North and Central Texas. A deepening longwave trough will move onshore in the western CONUS early this week, eventually shunting the ridge further into the deep south. In advance of this incoming trough, surface lee cyclogenesis will occur to our northwest and increase wind speeds through Tuesday in response.
While the slightly elevated winds may help alleviate the heat, increased WAA from the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday will allow afternoon heat indices to peak near 100 degrees across the majority of the region. With many end-of-school outdoor activities going on during the afternoon hours, caution will need to be taken when spending longer periods outside. Make sure to drink plenty of water, wear light clothing, and take breaks in air conditioning/shade.

By Tuesday evening, a shortwave disturbance will round the base of the trough and eject to the northeast. Lift from this shortwave will interact with present moisture and instability to promote isolated chances for showers and storms beginning Tuesday night.
Immediately upstream of the initial disturbance, a stouter shortwave will swing across the Great Plains and send a cold front south across the Red River early Wednesday. Scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible near and along the front as it pushes south. The front will end up stalling across North Texas as its upper level support quickly races off to the east Wednesday evening. Coverage in storms ahead/along the stalled boundary will increase on Thursday as another shortwave transits across the region and ushers the boundary northward as a warm front. Forecast soundings show enough shear and instability to promote strong to severe storms, but it is still a bit too early to pinpoint more exact locations, threats, and intensity.
Nonetheless, keep an eye on the forecast for mid-late this week as we will have more refined details the closer we get. Lingering rain chances will end on Friday, with a temporary lull in precipitation expected ahead of yet another incoming shortwave disturbance to our northwest.

Switching back to temperatures and heat: slightly "cooler" temperatures in the 80s are expected midweek thanks to the front and rain chances, but a warming trend is expected going into the weekend as ridging begins to build across the Southern Plains.
Continued high humidity and warming temperatures will push heat index values back into the mid-upper 90s for most. Friday and Saturday will once again be days to keep an eye on outside conditions as heat indices could be 100+ degrees in some areas, the highest of the forecast period. With next weekend being so far out, there is quite a degree of uncertainty in the exact temperature/heat index and locations. However, if similar guidance trends continue over the next handful of days, heat safety messaging will need to be ramped up for next weekend.

Prater

AVIATION
/NEW/ /06Z TAFs/

The only aviation weather concern will be the potential for stratus and patchy fog across Central Texas early Sunday morning.
A 30 knot low level jet, as indicated by the KFWS VAD wind profile, will lift moisture over the higher terrain of the Texas Hill Country, resulting in a deck of stratus initially between 1000 and 2000 ft. The base of the low cloud deck will temporarily lower below 1000 ft around sunrise, briefly impacting the Waco terminal, but likely remaining south/southwest of D10. Ceilings in Waco will lift through the morning, scattering out by midday.
Temporary visibility restrictions between 2 and 4 miles will accompany the low clouds, but these will also improve above 6 miles in the mid to late morning.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected Sunday and Sunday night with a south wind in the 6 to 10 knot range tonight and 10 to 16 knot range on Sunday along with some daytime gusts near 20 knots.

79

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 91 72 91 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 70 88 70 88 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 64 88 69 88 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 71 91 70 90 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 70 89 70 88 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 73 91 72 91 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 69 88 69 88 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 69 90 70 89 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 69 88 69 88 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 69 91 70 92 72 / 0 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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