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FXUS64 KFWD 021857 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1257 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /This Weekend/

This Afternoon: While the forecast for this weekend appears to be "quiet", a few nuances will impact the region. A vigorous shortwave trough will move from west to east across the region this afternoon. The back edge of the shortwave trough is clearly evident on Water Vapor satellite imagery and will clear the I-35 corridor in the next couple hours and exit to the E-NE by mid afternoon. An expansive area of attendant mid-level clouds are producing showers, however cloud bases are generally between 8-10 kft and situated over a very dry sub-cloud layer. While some precip intensities are high enough to allow for a smattering of light rain, most of the precip is falling as virga and evaporating before reaching the surface.
We have maintained the potential for a few embedded lightning strikes since the cloud-bearing layer is situated in an area with lapse rates between 7-9 degC/km, but weak instability and a narrow cloud-bearing layer will limit lightning potential. Once the trough moves east, rapid clearing is expected with mostly clear skies expected thereafter.

On the surface, an area of low pressure is moving across the TX/OK Panhandles and will settle over western OK this evening. A dryline is also moving across West Texas that should move into the western third of our forecast area this afternoon. Breezy W-SW winds and warm temperatures are expected behind the wind shift. Elsewhere, S-SE winds are expected to develop (i.e. flow into the dryline)
with high temperatures in the 60s.

Tonight: The surface low will fill tonight as the aforementioned shortwave trough ejects east, allowing for light W-NW winds to develop for all of North and Central Texas. While this is not a cold front per se, it will functionally act as a cold front and advect drier air southeast. Clear skies, light winds, and drier air should allow for tonight's lows to fall at least a degree or two below this morning's values. Patchy fog is once again possible in the early morning hours across the northeast, but the drier air should limit the coverage and keep any fog relatively shallow/short-lived.

Tomorrow: A trailing shortwave trough will dig into the Central CONUS and deepen another surface low...but much further to our north. This will shift the winds to become out of the SW once the nocturnal inversion breaks around mid-morning. Breezy SW winds, dry air, and clear skies will result in a mild day across the region. Although fuels are not overly receptive to fire-starts...the fire weather threat will be favorable for spreading wildfires if one were to develop. A Grassland Fire Danger Statement may be needed for the areas west of I-35.

Bonnette

LONG TERM
/Issued 240 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023/ /Sunday Night and Beyond/

Although the synoptic pattern will remain quite progressive with several upper-level disturbances and a couple of fronts pushing into North and Central Texas next week, the forecast will remain largely rain-free through the end of the work week due to a very dry airmass remaining anchored over the Southern Plains. The first of those dry frontal passages will occur Sunday night bringing no more than a northerly wind shift and slightly cooler temperatures on Monday. Expect temperatures to peak in the low to mid 60s across much of the region Monday afternoon.

Southerly winds will briefly return on Tuesday as surface high- pressure shifts to the east allowing for a quick warm-up (highs in the mid 60s to low 70s) ahead of the next front expected to push into North Texas the latter half of Tuesday into Tuesday night.
This frontal passage will drop temperatures back a few degrees Wednesday afternoon, primarily across North Texas. More extensive moisture return will re-establish across the region late Wednesday into the end of the work week as surface low pressure develops in the Plains ahead of broad west coast troughing. Low chances for light rain could return to the forecast across our southeastern zones as soon as Friday as current guidance suggests a subtle shortwave may eject over Texas ahead of the parent trough positioned over California. More widespread rain chances are possible later next weekend, as the aforementioned storm system looks to slide into the Plains during the Saturday (12/9) to Sunday (12/10) time frame.

Langfeld

AVIATION
/NEW/ /18Z TAFs/

VFR and south flow should prevail this afternoon. A shortwave trough has developed an expansive area of mid-and upper-level clouds across the region. Mainly virga--although a few light rain showers are possible--is falling out of the mid-level clouds. This will remain north of ACT and should move east of the D10 terminals around 22Z with clearing skies expected afterward.

The winds should remain light out of the S for most of the day. A dryline and westerly wind shift will flirt with the western D10 terminals this afternoon/evening, but is not expected to move through any TAF site. Light NW flow is expected to develop after the evening DFW/D10 push, and continue until about 15-16Z when SW winds just above the surface mix down.

Bonnette


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 67 39 70 41 62 / 20 0 0 0 0 Waco 67 40 70 43 63 / 5 0 0 0 0 Paris 59 36 64 38 59 / 10 0 0 0 0 Denton 67 34 70 36 61 / 20 0 0 0 0 McKinney 64 36 68 37 60 / 20 0 0 0 0 Dallas 64 40 70 42 61 / 20 0 0 0 0 Terrell 64 37 68 39 60 / 5 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 67 40 71 42 63 / 5 0 0 0 0 Temple 70 39 73 42 65 / 5 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 70 38 73 37 64 / 20 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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