Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Grand Prairie, TX

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update:

The slug of dry air mentioned below is starting to encroach on our far northeastern counties. Expect this to continue translating west through the day, so the forecast outlined below is largely on track at this time. I did nudge afternoon temperatures within the slug of dry air up a few degrees into the mid 90s, but otherwise no notable changes were made to the forecast this morning.

Bonnette

Previous Discussion: /Friday and Saturday/

Our region will remain sandwiched between major weather systems for the next couple days, allowing for a continuation of dry and well above-normal temperatures.

Despite the apparent lack of significant weather, a few subtle changes are expected today and tomorrow. There is a slug of drier air moving into East Texas early this morning that will settle near the I-35 corridor this afternoon. The drier air should produce an ever so slightly cool morning for our eastern North Texas counties with a few locations dropping into the upper 50s.
Temperatures this afternoon will climb into the low to mid 90s for all, or about 10-12 degrees above normal and more reminiscent of early September rather than early October. A weak cold front will be undergoing frontolysis just west/northwest of our area this afternoon. While it isn't expected to move into our forecast area, compressional warming ahead of the front will nudge temperatures a few degrees higher across far western North Texas. Lower humidity this afternoon should provide some heat relief, particularly in the evening if you have plans to attend any football games. The drier air will move into western North and Central Texas tonight, with the cooler air Saturday morning following.

Meanwhile, a weak tropical wave currently in the western Gulf of Mexico should nudge toward the south Texas Gulf Coast late today and tonight. It won't impact our weather today, but as the aforementioned front washes out and prevailing east-southeasterly flow returns locally, better moisture will be drawn into our area this weekend. Dew points will be higher Saturday and Sunday, but still in the low-mid 60s or in the informally named "slightly humid" category. We have also removed the mention of precipitation across Central Texas for Saturday afternoon as it looks like there will be too much mid- and upper-level subsidence/dry air to support meaningful precipitation.

Bonnette

LONG TERM
/Issued 259 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024/ /Saturday Night Onward/

The upper level pattern will undergo an amplification process during the the first half of next week as a pair of shortwaves help deepen an upper low over Quebec. This will generate a fairly deep trough along the Eastern Seaboard, while causing our persistent mid/upper ridge to retrograde and expand north through the Rockies. The resulting flow aloft will help usher a weak cold front through North and Central Texas on Monday. The front will not be accompanied by any precipitation due to a lack of moisture and lift, but it should provide some minor relief from the ongoing abnormally hot conditions. Minor is the key adjective here, as temperatures will only drop from 10 degrees above normal to 5 degrees above normal for this time in October.

The ridge will then expend east mid to late next week, which will keep temperatures above normal as the middle of the month approaches. A tropical system in the Gulf may become more organized by this point in time, but all indicators continue to point to the system moving east and away from Texas.

30

AVIATION
/NEW/ /12Z TAFs/

Light east-southeast surface winds should prevail through most of the morning. The winds above the surface are already starting to become out of the northeast, and expect surface winds to do the same (between 050-080) after 17-18Z. There is a ~20% chance that the wind direction remains "east of 070" at the D10 terminals until as late as ~20Z. Light winds are expected after 00Z this evening with mostly clear skies prevailing through the entire valid TAF period.

Bonnette


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 93 67 92 71 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 95 64 93 67 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 92 63 91 65 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 93 59 92 64 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 93 62 92 66 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 95 68 93 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 94 63 93 66 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 94 66 93 68 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 95 63 93 66 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 93 59 92 63 93 / 0 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.