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FXUS64 KFWD 181041 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 541 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

New Aviation, Short Term

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update: Patchy ground fog has developed early this morning in a few locations as expected. There is also an area of stratus pushing up from the Hill Country but these clouds should not last much past sunrise once daytime mixing begins.

Only some minor grid adjustments to morning cloud cover are needed with this update (see discussion below).

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Previous Discussion: /Overnight through Saturday night/

The axis of a shortwave will shift east of the region overnight while a mid level ridge builds in from the west. Subsidence on the backside of the departing shortwave will bring an end to all precipitation chances overnight. The ground will remain moist from recent rainfall, and the combination of a light wind and a mostly clear sky will result in patchy, shallow fog overnight.
Fog is most likely to develop across the southeast zones where the wind will remain calm and dewpoints will hold in the upper 60s to around 70 through the night. The fog may briefly become dense in a few spots, especially towards sunrise. Any fog that does develop will erode quickly after sunrise with vigorous boundary layer mixing.

Deep, dry air under the ridge will yield ample late spring sun, pushing high temperatures into the upper 80s and lower 90s. A light wind and shallow but abundant low level moisture will make it feel even hotter with heat index values topping out in the middle 90s for many. It will remain warm and humid Saturday night with lows mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

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LONG TERM
/Issued 322 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024/ /Sunday through Friday/

Heat and humidity are the words that best describe the weather across North and Central Texas as we head into the new week. The upper ridge currently moving into the region will shift eastward on Sunday with zonal flow taking its place. This pattern will induce lee troughing across the Central High Plains which in turn will increase southerly winds across the region. Although the wind will help it feel not quite so stagnant, high temperatures Sunday through Tuesday will reach the upper 80s to the middle 90s.
Afternoon heat index values will approach triple digits across the western zones Sunday and Monday and for much of the forecast area on Tuesday. Lows will also be warm, ranging from the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

Low rain/storm chances are expected across the northern zones Tuesday night with the passage of a fast moving shortwave. Once the shortwave lifts into the Central Plains, a weak cold front will slide southward through the Southern Plains, stalling across Central Texas Wednesday night. Lift along the front, coupled with weak large scale ascent associated with the passage of a compact shortwave, will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Storms will increase in coverage on Thursday once the front lifts slowly northward. Instability and deep layer shear are progged to be sufficient to support strong to severe storms, but it is much too early to know exactly where and how strong storms will be.
Storms chances should briefly end on Friday once the front lifts north of the Red River and brief subsidence moves in behind yet another shortwave, but the arrival of another shortwave and cold front could produce additional showers and thunderstorms as we move into next weekend.

Temperatures will be a bit cooler the second half of the week due to more clouds, precipitation, and weak cold air advection; but once the front lifts back north of the region, above normal temperatures are expected.

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AVIATION
/NEW/ /12Z TAFs/

The only aviation weather concern today will be some temporary IFR/LIFR stratus early this morning across portions of Central Texas, including Waco. We don't anticipate these ceilings reaching the metroplex terminals since low level flow is generally less than 20 knots and daytime mixing should result in rapid scattering and clearing shortly after sunrise. We would not be surprised to a few remnant low clouds reach D10 between 12Z and 14Z. There could also be some brief visibility restrictions around sunrise (3 to 5 miles) due to near saturated conditions and light surface winds. Waco would be the most likely site to see these minor visibility restrictions. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions today and tonight with scattered high clouds.

A south to southeast wind will prevail at all TAF sites though Sunday morning at speeds generally less than 10 knots.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 91 71 91 72 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 89 69 89 69 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 88 67 89 69 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 91 68 91 71 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 89 68 90 71 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 92 71 92 73 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 89 68 89 69 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 89 70 91 71 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 89 67 89 69 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 91 68 91 70 92 / 0 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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