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FXUS64 KBMX 112317 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 517 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 107 PM CST MON DEC 11 2023

Surface high pressure has built in across the region with Continental Polar cool and dry air settling into place. Even under full sunshine, temperatures are only rising into the low to mid 50s with a few 40s still left across the far northeast counties.
With dry air in place and dewpoints in the 20s this afternoon, that will set the stage for an ideal radiational cooling situation overnight tonight with calm winds and clear skies. Guidance typically has a hard time realizing how cold temperatures can drop in our normally cooler spots such as Gadsden, Jasper, and northeastern valley locations. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few upper teens in a few isolated spots by Tuesday morning. In terms of the forecast, I've dropped temperatures a few degrees further from this morning's forecast across the northern and northeast counties, with everyone else still on track for a widespread freeze and upper 20s to near 30 degrees. One other addition to the forecast was in regards to fog near the major rivers and lakes. We could be looking at a favorable setup for fog development due to the warmer water conditions and ideal radiational cooling. I've gone ahead and placed patchy and areas of freezing fog in the forecast for locations adjacent to these river basins and lakes. We'll watch development trends through the overnight hours to better determine if we need to expand these areas.

Temperatures will begin to modify slightly by Tuesday as the upper level flow pattern becomes temporarily zonal across the Southeast.
Surface high pressure will move slightly off to the east with light northeasterly flow at the surface expected by Tuesday afternoon. Highs will warm into the mid and upper 50s under sunny skies.

56/GDG

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 107 PM CST MON DEC 11 2023

Only minor changes were made to the long-term forecast this afternoon. Main forecast challenge continues through the end of the week and over the weekend with significant spread in the global model solutions. For now, have gone with a persistence forecast in this update until better agreement materializes.
Temperatures will remain around normal through the end of the week.

56/GDG

Previous long-term discussion: (Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 258 AM CST MON DEC 11 2023

High pressure persists across the Southeastern CONUS Wednesday through Friday. We'll see gradual warming as the air mass becomes more moderated with drier northerly to northeasterly flow. Our next system approaches the region by the end of the week and could move through over the weekend. A trough is expected to deepen through the Plains and move into the Gulf States at some point. However, guidance continues to struggle with the evolution and timing of the system, so rain chances remain at 20-40% Saturday and Sunday. It's unlikely that the entire weekend is a washout, but defining which day the rain moves in when it will move out will be something that needs to be worked out as models come into better agreement in the coming days.

25/Owen

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 PM CST MON DEC 11 2023

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period, with high clouds increasing by Tuesday afternoon. Calm winds overnight will increase from the northeast after sunrise at 4-6kts.

14

FIRE WEATHER

High pressure builds into the area today and persists through much of the week. Min RHs Monday through Thursday will be 35-40%. Rain free conditions through Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 19 55 27 58 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 26 57 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 28 56 34 58 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 27 59 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 27 57 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 31 56 34 58 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 30 57 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 31 58 35 60 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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