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FXUS64 KBMX 280915 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 315 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

New SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 AM CST TUE NOV 28 2023

Surface high pressure is forecast to be centered along the Middle to Lower Mississippi Valley today and the central Gulf Coast on Wednesday. This will promote fair-weather conditions across central Alabama both days.

An envelope of moisture at the 300-500 mb level is tracking eastward across the Gulf Coast region as of 3am/09z, resulting in a deck of high-level cloudiness. This feature should vacate the area by mid morning, with a clear sky then prevailing before clouds return sometime late Wednesday.

Tuesday night/Wednesday morning looks to offer the coldest temperatures this week due to the proximity of the ridge center plus calm winds and a clear sky. Low temperatures in the middle to upper 20s will be widespread with lower 20s for several communities near and north of the 22 and 20 corridors northwest and east of Birmingham, respectively.

89^GSatterwhite

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CST TUE NOV 28 2023

Wednesday Night through Thursday.

The long term forecast period starts quiet with a progressive shortwave ridge moving east over the area late Wednesday into early Thursday followed by a more southwest flow developing aloft with time later in the day Thursday through the upcoming weekend.
A shortwave trough over Southern California quickly digs south and deepens with time over Southern Arizona and New Mexico through the day Thursday. Surface high pressure will become centered to our southeast across the Wiregrass Region Wednesday evening while surface low pressure moves across Arizona. Surface high pressure will move east of the area, becoming centered over South Carolina on Thursday while low pressure will be found across the West- Central Plains.

Expect a southerly flow to become established with time late Wednesday night into Thursday while a few more clouds move over the area from the southwest late Wednesday night, expanding eastward and thickening with time through the day on Thursday. Dry conditions will persist Wednesday through Thursday morning followed by a few showers possible across the west toward midday Thursday. Chances for showers will increase through the day Thursday with best chances west, where a small potential for a few thunderstorms will exist as well. Lows will range from the the upper 20s far northeast to the mid 30 far west early Thursday morning followed by daytime highs from the upper 50s to around 60 areawide.

Friday through Saturday.

An unsettled weather pattern will take hold across the area through the middle portion of the long-term forecast period with a persistent southwest flow aloft while the first shortwave moves over the Southern Plains Thursday and moves northeast over the Mid-South Region late Thursday into Friday while yet another shortwave dives south from over Southern California to over Southern Arizona. Expect this second disturbance to pass a bit further to the northwest compared to the first wave Friday into Saturday.

A surface cold front will advance east across the Southern Plains toward the Lower Mississippi River Valley Region Friday morning with a surface low developing across Missouri while another area of low pressure develops along the Southern Coast of Texas where a coastal/marine warm front will move northward. toward the Texas and Louisiana coastlines. The northern surface low will strengthen and become dominant as it moves southeast into the Mid-South Region by Friday morning while a coastal/marine warm front will extend from Central Mississippi southeast toward Coastal Alabama.
The surface cold front will continue to advance east-southeast, approaching the Interstate 85 corridor toward Saturday morning while the coastal/marine warm front remains across the coastal counties of Alabama and Northwest Florida.

Expect clouds to continue to increase areawide overnight Thursday with scattered to numerous showers across the area into Friday morning. A few thunderstorms will also be possible during this time generally across the southwest half of the area, but with the surface warm front suppressed to the southwest, convection should be elevated in nature. Lows Friday morning will range from near 40 far east to readings in the mid 40s southwest. Highs Friday will range from the mid 60s northeast to the low 70s southwest.
Shower activity will become confined to the southeast third of the area overnight Friday into early Saturday followed by an increase in showers across the southern half of the area during the day Saturday. A few thunderstorms will be possible across the southern half of the area but most of this activity should be elevated in nature due to the surface warm front struggling to push much inland. Lows Saturday morning will range from the mid 40s far northwest to readings around 60 southeast followed by highs from the mid 60s north and far east to values in the low 70s far southeast.

Sunday through Monday.

A deep southwesterly flow is maintained Sunday into Monday as the forecast area becomes positioned between low amplitude ridging over the Western Caribbean and longwave troughing that persists over the Intermountain West southwest to over Baja California.

The surface cold front looks to stall and not move that much as it remains across our far southern and southeast counties Sunday before pushing further east on Monday.

Mostly cloudy skies will be forecast areawide Sunday with shower activity persisting through much of the day with the highest chances southeast. A few thunderstorms will be possible during the day Sunday across the southeast half of the area but this potential will become increasingly confined to our far southeast counties toward the evening hours. The surface warm front remains south of the forecast area, resulting in any thunderstorms likely remaining elevated in nature. Lows Sunday will range from the low 50s far northwest to readings in the low 60s far southeast followed by highs from the upper 60s northwest to the low 70s southeast. Some gradual clearing will occur over the northwest counties through the day Monday while residual showers will remain possible across the far east and southeast through midday, followed by drier conditions returning areawide toward the evening. Lows Monday morning will range from the upper 40s northwest to the upper 50s far southeast. Highs Monday afternoon will range from the low 60s northwest to near 70 far southeast.

05

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1038 PM CST MON NOV 27 2023

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Cirrus will cover the sky from time to time this period especially south, but no restrictive ceilings are expected. Surface high pressure moves toward Alabama from the west and northwest which will produce west and northwest winds. The pressure gradient tightens tomorrow and winds will increase to near 10kts. Some terminals may also experience some gusts up to 20kts. Winds go light around sunset.

75

FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions are expected through Wednesday night with minimum relative humidity values from around 30 percent northeast this afternoon with readings in the mid 30 percent range elsewhere.
Peak transport winds up to 20 mph will be possible far east with readings around around 10 mph west. Minimum relative humidity values will range from around 30 percent east to the mid 30 percent range Wednesday afternoon. Transport winds will be lighter with speeds from around 5 mph southwest to speeds just over 10 mph northwest on Wednesday. Chances for showers will increase through the day Thursday from northwest to southeast with areawide wetting rains expected Thursday night through Friday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 50 21 55 28 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 52 24 55 32 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 51 28 56 34 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 55 28 58 34 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 53 26 57 34 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 53 28 54 34 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 57 28 56 31 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 57 27 57 32 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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