Sunrise 6:26 AM   Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 12:18 PM   Moonset 1:27 AM

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FXUS64 KFWD 151048 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 548 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

New Aviation, Short Term

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update: No meaningful changes were necessary with this morning's short term forecast update. The bulk of shower and thunderstorm activity looks to hold off until after daybreak Thursday morning, with only isolated/scattered elevated convection during the overnight hours.
Otherwise, a swath of high cloud cover should be insufficient at preventing afternoon high temperatures from climbing into the upper 80s and lower 90s today. But, some relief from the above normal mid-May warmth will come in the form of seasonably low dewpoints and a decent southerly breeze of 10-20 mph.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion: /Through Tonight/

Our brief break in shower and thunderstorm activity continues today as we remain positioned in between shortwave disturbances.
Modest shortwave ridging aloft with strengthening low-level southerly flow and warm advection will result in a seasonably warm afternoon with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Expect southerly winds of 10-20 mph with a few higher gusts present during the afternoon hours. High cloud cover will also be on the increase late in the day, ushered eastward by a belt of strengthening upper level westerlies.

By this evening, our next upper trough will begin sharpening to our west, while a surface front and dryline become convectively active across portions of West Texas and the Panhandle. Height falls should allow for elevated showers and isolated storms rooted above 10 kft to eventually drift eastward into parts of North Texas, especially after midnight. Strong or severe storms would be unlikely during the predawn hours though, as this activity will remain high-based above a rather dry mid-level layer. Meaningful low-level moisture necessary to produce more robust convection will be slower to return despite a 40-50 kt low- level jet, and a richer theta-e airmass will not be present until after daybreak Thursday morning.

-Stalley

LONG TERM
/Issued 418 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024/ /Thursday Through the Middle of Next Week/

The potential is increasing for a significant rain event Thursday into Thursday night, particularly from Central Texas into East Texas. Guidance continues to be in good agreement with respect to the main synoptic features, but the placement and amounts of the heaviest rainfall still need to be fine-tuned.

As the upper system approaches from the west, forcing for ascent may initiate some elevated convection early Thursday morning, primarily across western portions of North Texas. These warm advection showers (and perhaps a few isolated storms) may be ongoing at daybreak Thursday morning, but with the low levels still scoured of moisture, these convective elements will remain elevated. The main event will develop later in the day.

As the system induces low-level cyclogenesis across West Texas, moist advection will intensify across the eastern half of the state. This will also serve to sharpen a warm frontal boundary that will be forced northward through Central Texas. This may be the initial focus for deeper convection rooted in the boundary layer. Although cloud cover and rainfall may temper the heat content within the boundary layer, strong warm/moist advection should still allow for considerable instability as these more deeply rooted cells develop during the daylight hours. The boundary will also serve to back the surface flow, enhancing the sub-cloud layer shear and the tornadic potential. A storm mode favoring supercells will also pose a threat for very large hail and damaging winds. However, the window for these isolated storms may be small as the radar scope becomes cluttered. The transition to multi-cell clusters will not end the severe potential but will enhance the training/backbuilding that will lead to considerable rainfall amounts.

Median event totals are 1 to 3 inches from the Big Country into Central and East Central Texas. It still appears that there will be a sharp gradient in amounts, with lesser totals across Northeast Texas where the moisture and frontal boundary will take the longest to arrive. Our worst-case scenario amounts (90th percentile values) would put 1- to 3-inch values north of the I-20 corridor with 3- to 5-inch totals in areas that are both east of I-35 and south of I-20. As is typical with convective activity, locally higher amounts can occur. A Flood Watch will likely be needed with subsequent forecast packages, the area matching the Moderate risk for excessive rainfall, which overlaps those areas that have seen considerable rainfall so far this month. As the event is soon captured by short-range guidance and additional CAMs, there will be greater precision with placement and amounts.

The event will continue into Thursday night, one area of convection gradually exiting to our southeast and another accompanying the frontal boundary into Northeast Texas. Renewed convection on Friday may be within our CWA, but the primary activity will be focused within those two departing areas (1) to our southeast and (2) to our northeast. However, since much of the event will be governed by convective evolution on the mesoscale, this will need to be re-evaluated as the event unfolds Thursday into Thursday night.

North and Central Texas should finally be safely on the backside of the departing system Friday night into Saturday morning, setting the stage for a sunny and unseasonably warm weekend as ridging aloft transits the region. Afternoon temperatures in the 90s will be widespread early next week, with the potential for triple digits across the Big Country. By Spring 2024 standards, this will be a protracted rain-free period, with rain chances potentially holding off until the middle of the upcoming week.

25

AVIATION
/NEW/ /12z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period. Light SE winds near 5 kts will increase to 10-20 kts by midday with some higher afternoon gusts possible. A cirrus canopy will spill into the area from the west during the day, with increasing mid clouds around 10 kft arriving later tonight. High-based showers and isolated thunderstorms may also arrive from the west between 06-12z Thursday morning. However, much more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to develop and overspread the region towards midday Thursday; TS has been introduced into the extended DFW TAF accordingly.

-Stalley


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 89 68 79 67 83 / 0 30 70 60 20 Waco 90 66 78 66 83 / 0 20 90 50 10 Paris 87 66 81 65 81 / 0 10 40 70 30 Denton 88 66 78 64 81 / 0 30 70 60 20 McKinney 88 67 78 65 81 / 0 20 60 60 20 Dallas 91 69 80 67 84 / 0 20 70 60 20 Terrell 87 66 79 66 81 / 0 20 70 60 20 Corsicana 89 67 80 68 83 / 0 20 80 60 20 Temple 89 65 78 67 83 / 0 20 90 40 20 Mineral Wells 90 65 77 63 82 / 0 40 80 50 20

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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