West Tawakoni, TX Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Tawakoni, TX

June 17, 2024 8:29 AM CDT (13:29 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 8:36 PM
Moonrise 3:39 PM   Moonset 1:56 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Tawakoni, TX
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Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 171039 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 539 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

New Aviation, Short Term

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update:

No major changes were necessary through the short term, with isolated/scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms expected mainly across southeastern portions of the area this afternoon.
There is still a chance that a more consolidated seabreeze could materialize, allowing convection to push farther northwestward with greater coverage than presently advertised. This potential is rather slim, but 30-40 kts of low-level flow could allow convective coverage to overachieve through the late afternoon period.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion: /Through Tuesday/

Tropical moisture from the Gulf will be funneled northward within strengthening southeasterly low-level flow through the first half of the week, with PW values progressively increasing. This will contribute to morning stratus intrusions, followed by scattered shower and thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Rain chances both today and Tuesday will be highest across the southeast, tapering off to near zero farther to the northwest.
Given the rather robust southeasterly low-level flow of as much as 30-40 kts, a fairly active seabreeze feature could become established. In this case, convection could certainly spread as far north as the DFW Metroplex by late afternoon. Showers and storms will cease with loss of heating with tranquil weather overnight. While this activity would be incapable of producing severe weather, brief heavy downpours and some gusty winds are certainly possible. Thanks to increased moisture content, cloud cover, and the presence of some rain-cooled air, high temperatures will only reach the low to mid 90s across most of the area both today and tomorrow.

-Stalley

LONG TERM
/Issued 252 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ /Tuesday Night Onward/

Rain showers will be on the increase across Central Texas late Tuesday night as a plume of deep tropical moisture surges northwest into the area. The tropical disturbance responsible for the precipitation will be in the process of moving inland across South Texas, placing North and Central Texas within a zone of strong warm/moist air advection. Showers will spread northwest through the forecast area during the day Wednesday, with occasional thunderstorms possible in the afternoon as surface instability is attained. The latest model guidance indicates that the axis of exceptionally high moisture content will be along and southwest of a line from roughly Wichita Falls to Palestine, where 2.25" PWATs are a good possibility (around 150% of normal). This would include pretty much all of Central Texas and western portions of the DFW Metroplex, and would be the most likely area where training showers and storms could produce a threat for flooding. It is possible that a southeast to northwest rain band could set up and continue into the night, enhancing the flood threat on a local scale.

It is too soon to bank on any one scenario, but good to keep in mind that locally higher amounts (above the generally 1 to 3 inches forecast) of rain are possible somewhere southwest of the aforementioned geographical line. Rainfall totals (and the threat for flooding) northeast of this line would be significantly less.
The exact location of the moist axis could also shift one way or another, either decreasing or increasing the threat for locally heavy rain. Unfortunately the bust potential is also quite high, because if the system were to wrap up over the Gulf and become more intense than currently forecast, precipitation might become more confined to South Texas while North/Central Texas becomes displaced too far north in the subsident zone. We should be able to refine these and other details over the next 48 hours.

Whatever the case, Wednesday night precipitation will exit from east to west on Thursday as the tropical system progresses west across Mexico. A mid level ridge will re-strengthen overhead in its wake, ending rain chances and bringing typical summer weather in time for the weekend. Another easterly wave will create at least a slight chance of rain during the early to middle part of next week.

30

AVIATION
/NEW/ /12z TAFs/

Very patchy MVFR cigs will affect most TAF sites on an intermittent basis for the next few hours before prevailing VFR resumes later this morning. This afternoon, isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will spread northwestward into parts of East and Central Texas, perhaps affecting the Waco TAF site and even parts of D10 through the late afternoon hours. The potential for convection at the DFW Metroplex TAF sites is too low to currently mention in the TAFs, but there is a small chance that a consolidated seabreeze could allow for convection to spread into the TAF sites prior to dissipating this evening. Otherwise, a persistent southeast breeze of 10-15 kts with gusts near 25 kts will prevail through the period. Another round of MVFR stratus is expected to develop after 06z tonight, and should be more widespread than what has been observed this morning.

-Stalley


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 93 76 92 75 83 / 20 5 10 5 30 Waco 91 75 90 74 81 / 20 5 20 10 60 Paris 90 72 90 72 86 / 20 10 10 5 20 Denton 93 75 92 74 82 / 10 5 5 5 30 McKinney 92 74 91 73 82 / 20 5 10 5 30 Dallas 93 75 92 75 82 / 20 5 20 10 30 Terrell 91 74 90 73 83 / 20 10 20 10 40 Corsicana 93 76 92 74 81 / 20 10 20 20 50 Temple 93 75 91 74 79 / 20 5 20 20 60 Mineral Wells 93 75 92 73 82 / 5 0 5 5 30

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KTRL TERRELL MUNI,TX 16 sm11 minSSE 0810 smMostly Cloudy81°F73°F79%29.88
KGVT MAJORS,TX 18 sm14 minSSE 0810 smOvercast79°F77°F94%29.89
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Dallas/Fort Worth, TX,




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