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FXUS64 KFWD 030029 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 729 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Through Tomorrow Night/

The next 24 hours will feature warm but dry conditions across North and Central Texas as high pressure to our east keeps precipitation chances at bay. This will be changing on Wednesday-- for additional details, see the long term discussion below.

Tomorrow, however, temperatures across the region will be in the lower to mid 90s as winds remain out of the south. Similar to today, high clouds will continue to stream across North Texas, but precipitation is not expected during the day.

A dryline will set up across West Texas tomorrow afternoon, likely leading to convection well west of our region. The overall storm motion may help push decaying thunderstorms into our western counties tomorrow night. With large scale forcing for ascent encroaching from the west, expect additional showers and storms to develop generally west of I-35 prior to sunrise. Rain chances should remain scattered through the night, with increasing coverage expected during the day on Wednesday.

Hernandez

LONG TERM
/Issued 241 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023/ /Wednesday Onward/

As alluded to in the short term forecast, rain chances will begin sharply increasing heading into the day Wednesday as a lead disturbance arrives ahead of a parent longwave trough. This should result in a swath of warm advection showers and thunderstorms within the CWA as early as Wednesday morning, likely increasing in coverage through the afternoon. This activity will exist mostly within an open warm sector characterized by rich PW values as high as 1.9-2", which will contribute to instability of 1000-2000 J/kg. While speed shear will be modest, directional shear will be strong, and certainly supportive of rotating updrafts within an initial wave of thunderstorm activity. The threat for strong or severe storms will likely be maximized midday Wednesday through the evening if supercellular clusters can in fact develop, and this would be most likely near or east of I-35 based on this morning's suite of high-res guidance. All severe weather hazards would be possible if this round of convection can become established.

Later into the evening, additional and more widespread convection is expected to be ongoing to our northwest along an approaching cold front which will push into North Texas Wednesday night into Thursday. This will be our main round of heavy rainfall, as pockets of training convection exist along the slow-moving frontal zone. This activity could also pose a borderline strong/severe threat with strong wind gusts and hail. Rain amounts continue to be a challenge given the sizable spread among extended guidance in terms of 3-day rainfall totals spanning late Tuesday through early Friday morning. For most of the CWA, the 10th and 90th percentile rain amount spreads are about 0.5" to 3.5", and even that large of a range would technically still be incorrect 20% of the time. In reality, the convective nature of the expected precipitation will likely result in large rainfall total differences across fairly short distances. A few locations will receive outlying amounts of 4-5" where minor flooding problems may arise, while many other areas will be comprised the low end of the range at 0.5-1".

As the cold front continues to advance southward into early Friday, most of the rain chances will vacate the CWA with its departure. However, lighter overrunning precip will remain possible into the day Friday mainly across Central and East Texas. This scenario is supported by a handful of ECMWF ensemble members, which depicts lagging upper level energy farther northwest of the front, which would continue to support broad ascent overhead. Despite these solutions, the most likely forecast is a dry one for most of the area from Friday through Sunday, with what should be very pleasant fall weather. Temperatures may be as much as 10 degrees below normal with highs in the 70s and lower 80s and lows in the 50s. A handful of readings in the upper 40s are even possible across the northwest.

-Stalley

AVIATION
/NEW/ /00Z TAFs/

The next 24 hours will continue to be quiet across North and Central Texas with minimal weather concerns expected. High clouds will continue to stream from southwest to northeast through the night and into tomorrow. VFR will prevail, thus, impacts will remain minimal.

Tomorrow afternoon, we'll begin to see an uptick in mid-level cloud cover, initially across Central Texas. These should gradually work their way northward into the Dallas/Fort Worth tomorrow night (beyond this forecast cycle). Until then, enjoy the southerly to southeasterly winds that will remain below 15 knots areawide.

Hernandez


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 92 75 86 70 / 5 10 30 90 90 Waco 67 92 74 88 71 / 5 20 20 90 70 Paris 65 88 71 80 66 / 0 5 10 80 80 Denton 67 92 72 86 67 / 5 10 40 90 90 McKinney 66 90 71 83 67 / 5 5 30 90 90 Dallas 71 92 74 86 71 / 5 5 30 90 90 Terrell 66 90 72 84 68 / 5 5 20 80 80 Corsicana 68 92 75 86 71 / 0 10 20 80 70 Temple 68 93 73 89 71 / 0 20 30 80 70 Mineral Wells 67 93 72 89 67 / 5 20 40 90 90

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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