McLendon-Chisholm, TX Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for McLendon-Chisholm, TX

April 14, 2024 1:52 AM CDT (06:52 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:54 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM
Moonrise 10:28 AM   Moonset 12:47 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near McLendon-Chisholm, TX
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Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 140609 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 109 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Today Into Monday/

Breezy and warm weather is expected once again by late morning into the afternoon hours, as a stagnant upper ridge remains in control of the weather and keeping the area rain-free. A stratus surge will surge northward rapidly and encompass Central and eastern North Texas just after sunrise, but only be short-lived due to the very shallow nature of moisture under the EML. I expect the low clouds to gradually shift eastward from mid morning through lunchtime. This time of the year, unless the moist layer below the elevated mixed layer is at least 50mb or more deep, morning stratus doesn't hang on long beyond mid morning thanks to strong heating and associated mixing. The breezy and relatively more humid environment this morning will have temperatures starting off in the 60s after sunrise, but quickly warming to around 80 this afternoon where any stratus lingers the longest.
Mid 80s to lower 90s are expected west of I-35 with the steamiest temperatures advertised for the Big Country. Another breezy and humid night is expected before we enter the beginning of the work week. Combined with periodic high cloudiness, relatively warm low temperatures well into the 60s with a few readings near 70 degrees will begin your Monday morning.

Monday is the transition day, as a deep longwave trough and embedded surface low over Intermountain West begins it's migration east toward the Rockies Front Range and western High Plains by early evening. This will put our region under increasing southwesterly flow aloft which usually entails a relatively strengthening EML (elevated mixed layer or "the cap"). Strong low level southwesterly flow up through 800mb will continue the persistent low level warm advection going as we move through the morning hours. Some enhanced isentropic ascent through the morning hours Monday may produce a few sprinkles across areas primarily west of I-35, though this could be seen even further east considering the next full-blown stratus surge anticipated across much of the area.

A lead shortwave will lift northeast during the prime heating hours, and could trigger a few isolated showers or storms across primarily western North Texas. Despite the the warm and unstable surface layer, the EML will still be awaiting better ascent to lift and moisten it, so any activity would be relatively elevated and only accessing the steepening lapse rates aloft for a low coverage threat for a strong storm or two containing small hail and gusty winds, as the more significant discrete and supercellular development remains well west of the area near the distant dryline and where stronger large scale ascent is anticipated with the approach of the main trough. Cloudiness should be more persistent across all but the areas west of US-281.
Areas east of this corridor will see highs capped around 80 degrees, with hotter values between 85 to 90 degrees to the west where more hours of sunshine will be present.

05/Marty

LONG TERM
/Issued 146 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024/ /Monday and Beyond/

By early Monday morning, a deep upper low will be shifting over the Four Corners region leading to surface cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rockies. Increasing southerly flow will transport mid-60s dewpoints over North and Central Texas by Monday afternoon ahead of a dryline laid out across portions of West/Northwest Texas.
Initial thunderstorm development will take place late Monday afternoon and evening along this boundary well to the west and northwest of the FWD CWA as the upper low approaches. The environment will support discrete/semi-discrete supercellular structures with this initial convection as it develops across portions of West Texas and southwestern Oklahoma. As a Pacific front overtakes the dryline late Monday evening and pushes the convection toward our western zones, a transition to a more linear storm structure make take place. With the greater synoptic-scale ascent remaining northwest of our forecast area ahead of the upper low track and SBCIN increasing after dark, moderate to strong capping may lead to a downtrend in intensity by the time the thunderstorm activity enters our Big Country and western North Texas counties around 8-11PM Monday night. This is especially true as the line/broken line of showers and thunderstorms approaches the I-35 corridor later Monday night.

With sufficient wind shear and at least some moderate elevated instability, we do not want to underplay the severe weather threat just yet, especially west of the I-35 corridor late Monday evening into Monday night. At least scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected along the Pacific front as it pushes through North and Central Texas, but it is likely that many locations receive less than 0.10" of rain with this event. Most of the activity should push into East Texas by midday Tuesday, but we will need to monitor for a brief window of reintensification early Tuesday afternoon across our far eastern/southeastern counties.

Drier air behind the Pacific front will lead to a dry, warm midweek period with afternoon highs approaching the mid-80s to low 90s by Wednesday. A strong cold front will push through the region in the Thursday-early Friday timeframe bringing cooler temperatures and thunderstorm chances back to the region. High temperatures in the 60s to low 70s are looking more probable Friday into the weekend.

Langfeld

AVIATION
/NEW/ /06z TAFs/

VFR currently with occasional, mainly low MVFR (though isolated IFR is possible) surges expected both early this morning and again on Monday morning. Timing these surges will be the primary challenge, with just periodic high cloudiness AoA FL250 expected.

With a 40kt+ SSW LLJ ongoing, night IR satellite already showing some low VFR/MVFR moving rapidly north through Central TX. These should arrive at Waco in the 09z-10z period, then arrive across the D10 DFW airports in the 12z-13z time period. Forecast soundings show this moisture to be quite shallow/thin, thus veering 925mb flow and strong heating/mixing will help to scatter and move these cigs east of the airports by 15z.

Southerly winds 10-15 kts will prevail through this coming evening, with a few gusts to near 25 kts possible through mid afternoon. A 24-30 hr line was added to DFW Int'l Airport for a higher confidence of MVFR cigs return by/after 09z Monday.

05/Marty


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 81 68 86 65 / 0 10 50 20 0 Waco 66 80 68 86 68 / 0 10 30 20 0 Paris 65 79 66 82 66 / 0 5 40 60 10 Denton 66 80 66 86 60 / 0 10 60 10 0 McKinney 66 79 67 85 64 / 0 5 50 30 0 Dallas 68 81 69 87 66 / 0 5 50 20 0 Terrell 65 79 67 84 67 / 0 5 40 40 5 Corsicana 66 82 69 84 70 / 0 0 30 40 0 Temple 65 81 67 86 67 / 0 5 30 20 0 Mineral Wells 65 83 64 88 59 / 0 10 60 5 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KHQZ MESQUITE METRO,TX 8 sm17 minS 11G1810 smClear66°F55°F68%30.05
KTRL TERRELL MUNI,TX 10 sm59 minS 0910 smClear63°F52°F68%30.07
KLNC LANCASTER RGNL,TX 23 sm17 minS 14G1910 smClear66°F55°F68%30.05
KDAL DALLAS LOVE FIELD,TX 24 sm59 minS 11G1910 smPartly Cloudy70°F54°F56%30.03
Link to 5 minute data for KHQZ


Wind History from HQZ
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Tide / Current for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of southern planes -- texas   
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Dallas/Fort Worth, TX,



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