Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for McLendon-Chisholm, TX

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Through Saturday/

Multiple disturbances pivoting around a slow-moving upper low positioned over the Ozarks continue to ignite convection from the Texas Panhandle to the Gulf coast. A convective cluster across Southeast Texas is still in progress as of 6pm, but should undergo steady weakening with loss of heating this evening. A resultant northwestward moving outflow boundary is also currently invading southeastern portions of our forecast area, which will offer a slim chance for brief rain showers along with an abrupt temperature drop of about 10 degrees as it passes through areas east of a Canton to Hearne line. The remainder of the forecast area will see a tranquil but muggy evening, with both dewpoints and overnight low temperatures in the low/mid 70s.

By tomorrow morning, it is possible that one or more decaying convective complexes either from the Texas Panhandle or northern Oklahoma impinges on North Texas, or at least sends a remnant outflow boundary into the area. This will result in slim convective chances in parts of North Texas tomorrow, either due to the remnants of such a complex itself, or by allowing for redevelopment in the afternoon due to the presence of an outflow or MCV lifting mechanism. In addition, renewed convection in Southeast Texas may have a tendency to build northward once again, similar to today's activity. Severe weather would be unlikely with any of this activity, but small hail and gusty outflow winds are possible. Highs will be in the low/mid 90s with heat indices of 100-105 due to seasonably high dewpoints.

-Stalley

LONG TERM
/Issued 210 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025/ /Sunday Onward/

Northwesterly flow aloft will continue Sunday as the ridge remains confined to the Four Corners region. This should help send a shortwave into our region Sunday night, increasing the threat for thunderstorm complex to move in. With instability near 2500 J/Kg as storms approach our region, there will be a threat for severe winds along the leading edge of the thunderstorm complex.
Since this potential thunderstorm complex is still 3 days out, there remains a high degree of uncertainty the timing and location. Expect additional information in the next day or two.

As we begin a new work week, temperatures will remain near normal with highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s. Heat index values will certainly be on the rise as each afternoon will feature heat indices in the 100-105 range. Low rain chances will be in place next week as weak shortwaves skirt our northern or southern counties.

Hernandez

AVIATION
/NEW/ /00z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail this evening before another intrusion of MVFR stratus arrives overnight and Saturday morning. These cloud heights are likely to be near or just above 1 kft, and will progressively lift and scatter to VFR between 14-16z tomorrow.
There is a small (less than 20%) chance for convection to occur in North Texas tomorrow morning if a convective complex from either Oklahoma or the Texas Panhandle survives long enough to spread towards D10. This potential is too low to introduce any precipitation mention at the TAF sites at this time. A south wind at 8-12 kts will prevail through the period, although any nearby convection through the period could produce brief erratic outflow winds.

-Stalley

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 92 77 93 76 / 5 10 5 10 5 Waco 74 91 74 90 74 / 5 20 5 10 5 Paris 72 89 73 88 74 / 10 20 5 20 10 Denton 73 92 75 93 75 / 10 10 5 10 5 McKinney 74 91 75 91 75 / 10 10 5 10 10 Dallas 75 93 77 94 78 / 5 10 5 10 5 Terrell 73 90 74 90 74 / 5 10 5 10 5 Corsicana 75 91 75 90 75 / 5 20 5 10 5 Temple 73 92 73 91 73 / 5 20 5 20 5 Mineral Wells 73 94 73 94 73 / 5 5 5 5 5

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.