Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for McLendon-Chisholm, TX

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

With the post-frontal low-level ridge exiting to the east, a return of south-southeasterly winds is expected to continue across the state as we head through today. These south winds are currently driving a slug of abundant Gulf moisture northward up into the Permian Basin, which will eventually spread a bit further east into our Big Country counties by daybreak. Aloft, a minute shortwave is currently transiting across the state, spreading enough lift to promote showers with occasional embedded lightning strikes to our west and southwest. Elevated rain showers and increasing cloud cover will slowly shift into our west and southwest counties this morning, shifting further east across North and Central Texas the rest of today. Highest coverage is expected to remain across western portions of Central Texas, with more scattered elevated showers further north. The dreary conditions will in our west/southwest will aid in keeping temperatures a tad cooler than elsewhere, with highs ranging from the upper 50s/low 60s in our southwest to the mid 70s in our northeast where drier and somewhat clearer conditions are expected. A temporary lull in precipitation is expected this evening across our region as we go in between shortwaves, though low chances for rain will still exist at this time.

More widespread showery development is expected overnight through Tuesday as a stouter shortwave (currently over the Desert Southwest/Northern Mexico) advances east across the state. More efficient lift with this disturbance will allow for a west-to-east blossoming of showers and potentially a rumble of thunder. Once again, highest coverage will generally be across Central Texas where the higher moisture content remains. Continued cloud cover and rain- cooled air will keep afternoon highs in the 60s region- wide. The showers will exit out of much of the region by late Tuesday as the shortwave exits into the Deep South, however, lingering isolated to scattered showers will likely remain generally near and east of I-35 overnight through Wednesday afternoon.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Low rain chances will continue daily in portions of the region through the weekend as multiple shortwaves round the base of the parent longwave trough established over the western half of the CONUS. With a sharpening dryline west of our North and Central Texas counties, we'll remain in the warm sector through Thursday.
While most of the region will likely remain dry on Thursday thanks to being a bit removed from the best lift and a lingering cap overhead in the afternoon, we cannot rule out a storm or two developing in our eastern zones. If a storm is able to break the cap, the environment would have efficient instability and shear, as well as steep lapse rates, to promote a threat for strong to severe hail and winds. The exact potential is quite conditional and bears watching. Otherwise, a lee-side low will promote breezy wind with gusts up to 25-30 mph on Thursday.

On Friday, the dryline will shift a bit further east towards the US-281 corridor, with the potential for isolated to scattered showers and storms mainly in our northeast. Yet another shortwave will swing across the base of the trough, sending a cold front south. Higher coverage of storms looks to remain out of our CWA to the northeast where the cold front overtakes the dryline. The front will move into North and Central Texas late Friday into Saturday, but will likely stall and quickly surge back northward.
Chances for showers and storms will persist through this upcoming weekend, but it is too early for any specifics on intensity and location, so check back for more details as they become available.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

East-southeast winds will gradually shift further out of the southeast later this morning underneath increasing VFR mid and upper level cloud cover. Southeast winds are expected to continue at all TAF sites the rest of today. Showers and perhaps an isolated lightning strike will continue to spread southwest to northeast over the day today, with impacts expected at ACT beginning this afternoon. After a lull in precipitation at the airports, additional, more widespread development is expected to bloom across the region on early Tuesday, moving over ACT around 06Z and D10 closer to between 09Z. South to southeasterly winds will persist. Lagging behind a couple hours from the onset of precipitation will be a deck of MVFR and lower stratus. Highest potential for IFR or lower cigs is just after the 30 hour extended TAF and will be addressed in future issuances.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 55 66 59 / 10 50 60 20 Waco 67 55 64 59 / 30 70 80 40 Paris 74 52 65 55 / 0 10 30 20 Denton 72 52 65 56 / 10 50 50 20 McKinney 73 54 65 58 / 0 40 50 20 Dallas 74 56 66 59 / 10 50 60 20 Terrell 73 54 66 58 / 0 40 60 30 Corsicana 75 56 68 61 / 10 60 70 40 Temple 66 55 67 60 / 50 80 80 40 Mineral Wells 68 52 65 56 / 20 70 60 20

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.