Sunrise 6:24 AM   Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 3:05 PM   Moonset 2:45 AM

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FXUS64 KFWD 190008 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 708 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Tonight and Tomorrow/

Relatively quiet weather is expected for the remainder of the weekend. South winds 5-10 mph overnight will continue to draw warm/moist air north. This should nudge tonight's temperatures at least a couple degrees higher than last night. Gulf stratus will develop over the Hill County tonight and move into western Central Texas and parts of the Big Country early tomorrow morning. East of the stratus, patchy fog is expected for parts of Central and East Texas. Fog is most likely for locations in/near the Brazos and Trinity River valleys where a 1-3 degree crossover temperature is forecast. Widespread dense fog is not expected, but there is a 40% chance of patchy dense fog in low-lying locations with damp/wet soils.

The fog will be shallow and burn off a couple hours after sunrise, but the stratus will take a little more time to lift and scatter.
By the early afternoon, mostly sunny skies will prevail across the region. A majority of our area topped out near 90 this afternoon.
Tomorrow's temperatures should be similar, but most should be 1-2 degrees lower due to more moisture in the air. The extra humidity will result in heat index values in the mid 90s, but a southerly 10-15 mph breeze with gusts to 20-25 mph should help make the heat more tolerable.

Bonnette

LONG TERM
/Issued 222 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024/ /Sunday Night Onward/

Upper level ridging and dewpoints in the 60s and 70s will keep the beginning of this upcoming week warm, dry, and humid across North and Central Texas. A deepening longwave trough will move onshore in the western CONUS early this week, eventually shunting the ridge further into the deep south. In advance of this incoming trough, surface lee cyclogenesis will occur to our northwest and increase wind speeds through Tuesday in response.
While the slightly elevated winds may help alleviate the heat, increased WAA from the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday will allow afternoon heat indices to peak near 100 degrees across the majority of the region. With many end-of-school outdoor activities going on during the afternoon hours, caution will need to be taken when spending longer periods outside. Make sure to drink plenty of water, wear light clothing, and take breaks in air conditioning/shade.

By Tuesday evening, a shortwave disturbance will round the base of the trough and eject to the northeast. Lift from this shortwave will interact with present moisture and instability to promote isolated chances for showers and storms beginning Tuesday night.
Immediately upstream of the initial disturbance, a stouter shortwave will swing across the Great Plains and send a cold front south across the Red River early Wednesday. Scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible near and along the front as it pushes south. The front will end up stalling across North Texas as its upper level support quickly races off to the east Wednesday evening. Coverage in storms ahead/along the stalled boundary will increase on Thursday as another shortwave transits across the region and ushers the boundary northward as a warm front. Forecast soundings show enough shear and instability to promote strong to severe storms, but it is still a bit too early to pinpoint more exact locations, threats, and intensity.
Nonetheless, keep an eye on the forecast for mid-late this week as we will have more refined details the closer we get. Lingering rain chances will end on Friday, with a temporary lull in precipitation expected ahead of yet another incoming shortwave disturbance to our northwest.

Switching back to temperatures and heat: slightly "cooler" temperatures in the 80s are expected midweek thanks to the front and rain chances, but a warming trend is expected going into the weekend as ridging begins to build across the Southern Plains.
Continued high humidity and warming temperatures will push heat index values back into the mid-upper 90s for most. Friday and Saturday will once again be days to keep an eye on outside conditions as heat indices could be 100+ degrees in some areas, the highest of the forecast period. With next weekend being so far out, there is quite a degree of uncertainty in the exact temperature/heat index and locations. However, if similar guidance trends continue over the next handful of days, heat safety messaging will need to be ramped up for next weekend.

Prater

AVIATION
/NEW/ /00Z TAFs/

Light southeast winds will prevail through the night. Gulf stratus will move into western Central Texas and areas SW of D10 after 06Z tonight. Patchy fog with IFR/LIFR ceilings are expected east of the stratus deck, including at the ACT terminal early tomorrow morning. The ACT 00Z TAF is more pessimistic than the 18Z TAF, but still keeps the lowest CIG/VIS at IFR. However, it will be close. There is a 30% chance of LIFR ceilings occurring *AT* the terminal and a 60% chance of LIFR ceilings within 25 miles of ACT.

VFR will return to all terminals by 17-18Z along with breezy SE winds.

Bonnette


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 91 73 91 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 70 87 70 88 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 66 88 69 88 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 69 90 73 91 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 69 89 72 89 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 72 91 73 91 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 69 88 70 88 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 71 88 72 90 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 70 87 69 89 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 69 90 72 93 73 / 0 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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