Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Coppell, TX

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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
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Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 5:22PM Monday December 9, 2019 2:53 PM CST (20:53 UTC) Moonrise 3:53PMMoonset 4:39AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Coppell, TX
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location: 32.91, -97     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 091857 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1257 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

SHORT TERM. /Through Tuesday/

Only some minor adjustments were made to the previous short term forecast regarding the Tuesday morning snow potential. The main takeaways remain the same: Rain will eventually become mixed with or transition completely to snow Tuesday morning across select portions of North Texas, perhaps resulting in some minor accumulations on grassy or elevated surfaces. Very little in the way of travel impacts are expected due to surface temperatures remaining near or above freezing. Due to limited potential for accumulations and impacts, no winter headlines are planned at this time. For the remainder of the forecast area, only a cold rain is expected.

Our strong cold front is presently moving through the area on schedule, and will clear the CWA to the southeast later today. Strong cold advection will continue overnight, sending temperatures into the 30s and lower 40s after midnight. The plume of mid-level moisture spreading eastward behind the front will continue to result in top-down saturation, and rain will eventually be capable of reaching the surface by this evening. This frontogenetically-induced band of precipitation will be aided by strong synoptic ascent from both DCVA accompanying a dynamic upper trough and our proximity to the right entrance region of an upper jet streak.

Essentially all guidance is suggesting low-level thermal profiles will eventually become cold enough to allow for a rain-snow mix or complete transition to snow to occur across parts of North Texas roughly between 3AM and 10AM. Profiles should approach their wet bulb temperature as low-level saturation occurs, while both adiabatic lift and cold advection cool the rest of the column. Some model profiles are actually depicting some textbook heavy snow soundings, with saturation to -20C, steep lapse rates in the dendritic growth zone, and an isothermal layer near 0 to +1C through the lowest ~2km. This could allow for some bursts of heavy wet snowfall roughly in areas north of I-20 and west of I-35. Should this occur, a quick couple inches of snow could accumulate on the grass in these areas, although this would likely be an isolated occurrence. Overall, am only expecting a brief window of snow potential of a couple hours at any given location, as the overlap between sufficiently cold air, lift, and moisture will only occur over a small swath at any given time. Our main areas of concern are generally from the Cisco/Stephenville area northeastward towards Denton, which may spend the longest residence time beneath a band of snow. This would be the main location that some 1-3" totals could potentially occur on grassy surfaces. In addition, I can't completely rule out the occurrence of thunder as the coldest mid-level temperatures become situated overhead. Mid-level lapse rates could actually approach 7-8 C/km during this time which may briefly enhance precipitation rates.

Uncertainties and alternate scenarios include a "reasonable worst case" of a multi-inch snow total somewhere west of the Metroplex should all the previously-discussed ingredients come together and persist for a few hours. On the other hand, a bust potential does exist in terms of low-level temperatures remaining slightly too warm for a full transition to snow to occur, in which case a mix would be the extent of observed winter weather with essentially no accumulations. This all basically depends on about 1 degree Celsius difference between 900-850mb. We've maintained a most- likely scenario depiction in the official forecast which consists of minimal accumulations across a majority of North Texas and perhaps some accumulations of up to an inch west of the Metroplex.

Much drier low-level air advecting in from the north should cause an abrupt tapering off of precipitation from northwest to southeast beginning mid morning and continuing through the afternoon. That dry air will also result in rapid improvement of sky conditions, with some clearing occurring across North Texas by mid afternoon. This should allow high temperatures to climb into the 40s.

The remainder of the forecast will be addressed in the long-term discussion to be issued this afternoon.

-Stalley

AVIATION. /18z TAFs/

Deteriorating conditions will occur through the TAF period, with some MVFR/IFR cigs possible Tuesday morning along with a chance for a rain/snow mix.

A cold front has cleared the DFW Metroplex, turning winds to the northwest, and this wind shift will occur at Waco within the next hour. The north winds are here to stay through the remainder of the TAF period, with some gusts as high as 25-30kts possible this evening and tonight. VFR cigs will continue to lower this afternoon and evening as top-down saturation occurs while a plume of moisture arrives from the west. Initially, virga will be likely, which may increase turbulence across North Texas. All sites should become MVFR around midnight as light rain begins to overspread the area, further saturating the low levels. A further reduction of cigs to around 1 kft is likely heading into the predawn hours while precipitation rates increase. Around 12z, enough cold air may arrive to allow snow to begin mixing with rain across the DFW Metroplex. Have included Tempo mentions of RASN for a few hours Tuesday morning when this potential may be realized. Precipitation will also be sufficient to occasionally reduce visibility, likely into the 2-4 mile range, although any occurrence of snow could result in vsby falling below 1 mile. Sharply drier air will begin advecting in from the north by mid- morning, leading to a rapid improvement in cigs to VFR where they should last through the rest of the TAF period.

-Stalley

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 36 44 30 53 / 5 100 90 5 0 Waco 79 39 41 28 54 / 0 80 100 5 5 Paris 70 36 40 27 51 / 10 80 60 0 0 Denton 71 34 45 27 52 / 10 90 50 0 0 McKinney 72 35 43 27 52 / 0 90 80 5 0 Dallas 74 36 44 30 53 / 5 100 90 5 0 Terrell 75 38 41 27 53 / 0 100 100 5 0 Corsicana 77 40 41 30 52 / 0 80 100 5 5 Temple 81 41 41 29 54 / 0 60 100 5 5 Mineral Wells 73 34 46 25 52 / 20 100 60 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

26/06


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, TX2 mi60 minNNW 19 G 2610.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy66°F39°F37%1008.7 hPa
Dallas Love Field, TX9 mi60 minNNW 1710.00 miOvercast72°F41°F33%1008.5 hPa
Dallas / Addison Airport, TX10 mi66 minNW 12 G 2510.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F41°F38%1009.5 hPa
Grand Prairie, Grand Prairie Municipal Airport, TX15 mi63 minWNW 8 G 1510.00 miClear72°F39°F31%1009.8 hPa
Dallas, Redbird Airport, TX17 mi60 minNW 1110.00 miFair73°F43°F34%1008.3 hPa
Fort Worth, Fort Worth Alliance Airport, TX18 mi60 minNNW 179.00 miOvercast62°F37°F40%1009.5 hPa
Arlington Municipal Airport, TX18 mi60 minNW 14 G 1910.00 miFair74°F42°F32%1008.5 hPa
Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport, TX19 mi60 minNNW 15 G 2610.00 miLight Rain62°F37°F41%1009.4 hPa
Denton Enterprise Airport, TX22 mi60 minNNW 1310.00 miOvercast57°F37°F47%1010.4 hPa
Fort Worth, Naval Air Station, TX23 mi61 minNW 20 G 3010.00 miOvercast and Breezy66°F35°F32%1008.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDFW

Wind History from DFW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS19
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1 day ago4S6S4SE5SE5SE5S7S6S7SE6SE7S9S6S9S7S7S8S11S11S16
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2 days agoNW14NW12N10N8N11NW10N9N9N9N7N5N5NW6NW7N6N6NW7N6N7N53Calm3SE4

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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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