Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pelican Bay, TX

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update:

An overnight storm complex is currently approaching the western CWA border, and should continue east to the I-35 corridor of North Texas 8-10 AM. An overall weakening trend has been observed, but occasional severe storms continue form along the line. Even if the line weakens, additional development late morning and this afternoon will come with a threat for severe storms into the evening hours, with all modes of severe weather possible. Heavy rain will also lead to flooding in some areas, particularly along the Red River where a Flood Watch remain in effect through tonight.

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Previous Discussion: /Through Thursday/

A shortwave trough currently located over the Four Corners region will provide multiple rounds of thunderstorms across North and Central Texas as it advances east over the next 24 to 36 hours.
Ongoing convection over the western Red River counties has had a history of large hail, damaging winds and heavy rain over the past few hours. The presence of a quasi-stationary front in that area and a low level jet will keep these storms going for a few more hours, before lifting north of the Red River during the overnight hours. A Tornado Watch will hence remain in effect for that area until 1 AM.

Focus will then shift to the west as the shortwave approaches the Panhandle and Texas South Plains. A new batch of convection recently developed between Midland and San Angelo, also in the vicinity of the meandering surface front. Activity will continue to increase in coverage, eventually growing into a qlcs at some point during the overnight hours. Recent guidance advances this newly formed line east to near the western border of the CWA around daybreak. The line may begin to weaken after sunrise as the low level jet mixes out, but should still reach the I-35 corridor mid to late morning. A damaging wind threat may accompany these storms across the northwest half of the CWA Wednesday morning.

New development should then occur Wednesday afternoon as the shortwave continues east across Northwest Texas and large scale lift increases, with mesoscale boundaries providing focus for surface-based development. Plentiful deep layer shear and good instability will support severe storm development with large hail and damaging winds both possible. A tornado threat may also exist based on good amounts of 0-1 km SRH (300+ m**2/s**2) as storms push east of I-35/35E Wednesday afternoon. Heavy rain due to training convection is also a concern, and the ongoing Flood Watch will remain in effect through Thursday morning across the Red River counties where heavy rain has already fallen on multiple occasions.

One remaining round of convection will then form Wednesday evening as the shortwave sweeps through the Southern Plains, with activity focused along the now southward advancing cold front. The frontal convection will also contain a severe threat while pushing southeast through Central Texas Wednesday evening, eventually exiting into Southeast Texas overnight Wednesday night.
The front will stall somewhere near the southern boundary of the CWA on Thursday, which may lead to isolated thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon, but nice weather can be expected across the rest of the region.

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LONG TERM
/Issued 1217 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ /Thursday Night Onward/

As the midweek shortwave exits to the Ohio Valley, another shortwave will dive southeast through the Plains at the start of the period. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Central and Southern Plains, bringing another round of convection to North Texas Thursday night into Friday. Convection will be focused along a stronger cold front, which will be driven completely through the CWA Friday evening. A damaging wind threat will likely accompany these storms as they push south through the region. The passage of the front and development of a ridge aloft will then provide a couple of nice weather days this weekend.
Saturday through Monday will feature mostly sunny days and clear cool nights with lows in the 50s and 60s, and highs mainly in the 70s. A slow-moving upper low will then bring more storm chances as it emerges from the Rockies into the Plains during the early to middle part of next week.

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AVIATION
/NEW/ /12Z TAFs/

Borderline MVFR/IFR cigs will hang around this morning ahead of a complex of thunderstorms (storms will encroach on the Metroplex 14-16Z). Additional development is expected along outflow boundaries this afternoon, warranting a tempo group from 17-21Z.
Storms should hold off at KACT until later in the afternoon, with a TEMPO from 23-02Z this evening. Convection will exit to the south and east this evening, followed by a return to MVFR overnight tonight.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation may be requested this afternoon and evening along and east of I-35. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 78 64 86 65 76 / 90 50 5 30 80 Waco 82 67 88 65 81 / 80 40 10 20 80 Paris 77 63 82 62 73 / 90 70 10 30 60 Denton 77 58 84 60 73 / 90 50 0 30 80 McKinney 77 63 84 63 74 / 90 60 5 30 70 Dallas 79 64 87 65 78 / 90 50 5 30 80 Terrell 79 65 84 64 77 / 90 50 5 20 70 Corsicana 82 68 86 67 79 / 90 50 10 20 80 Temple 85 67 90 66 83 / 80 40 10 20 80 Mineral Wells 82 58 86 61 76 / 90 30 0 30 70

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ091>095-100>107.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8 AM CDT this morning for TXZ091>095-100>102-115-116.