Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pelican Bay, TX

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1208 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Quiet and pleasant weather will prevail through the short term in the wake of Tuesday's cold front. North winds will continue today, with slightly cooler temperatures (but still above average)
in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Following another cooler night with lows in the 40s, the return of southerly winds will result in warmer temperatures on Thursday, with afternoon highs returning to the 70s areawide. There will continue to be a slightly elevated threat for grassfires for areas west of I-35 this afternoon due to low humidity and above normal temperatures. Fortunately, wind speeds will be relatively light, which will mitigate fire spread should any fires develop. Increasing humidity tomorrow will keep any fire weather concerns to a minimum.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1208 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Our next rain-producing system will be approaching the region Thursday night into Friday as a cut-off low moves eastward through the Southwest CONUS and northern Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms may develop as early as Friday afternoon near the Red River.
However, the greatest chances for showers and storms will hold off until Friday night and Saturday when widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected to develop and gradually move east across the region as the upper low moves overhead. This will make for a rather rainy Valentine's Day, so ensure you're monitoring the weather, and plan for disruptions to any outdoor plans.

Nearly the entire region is expected to receive beneficial rainfall with this system, with average rainfall totals ranging between 1/2" and 2". The highest rainfall totals are generally expected to be east of the I-35 corridor where moisture will be the most plentiful. However, there could be the potential for multiple rounds of showers and storms along the Red River, which would result in higher totals for these areas as well. Reasonable high-end amounts are currently expected to be upwards of 2.5-3".
Drought conditions have redeveloped as a result of the precipitation deficit across the region, which should allow for some mitigation of any flooding concerns. However, the extent of our flood threat will likely depend more on how quickly any heavier rain occurs. With the potential for embedded, locally heavy rainfall, we'll have to monitor the potential for flooding, especially within any urban areas.

There still appears to be an isolated potential for severe weather, but this threat is rather conditional at this time.
Meager instability will keep the threat low overall, but it's possible any surface forcing mechanisms may not align with afternoon instability, as the cold front associated with this system isn't expected to arrive until Saturday night. This introduces uncertainty as to how intense these storms will be, but as it currently stands, isolated strong to marginally severe storms can't be ruled out. This threat would be highest across Central Texas but could extend towards the Red River depending on how far north an axis of instability is able to develop.

The aforementioned cold front will bring an end to most of the showers and storms Saturday evening/night, though a few showers or storms may linger through Sunday morning until the upper low eventually departs to our east. Slightly cooler weather is expected on Sunday with afternoon highs in the 60s to low 70s.
However, the cool-down will be short-lived, as highs will return to the 70s and 80s early next week.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Weak north flow at 5-10 kts will become near calm overnight. When winds return around sunrise tomorrow, they will generally be out of the SE (130-160) at ~5 kts. Just beyond the TAF period (After 06Z tomorrow night), patchy fog may develop in portions of E and SE TX, but should remain away from TAF sites. As such, expect VFR conditions to prevail for the duration of this forecast period at all TAF sites.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 66 46 75 56 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 70 47 77 56 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 67 44 70 50 / 0 0 0 10 Denton 66 40 74 50 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 66 42 73 53 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 68 47 75 56 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 68 44 74 53 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 71 48 77 58 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 72 46 78 56 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 68 42 78 52 / 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.