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FXUS64 KFWD 110028 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 628 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Tonight into Tuesday Morning/

A quiet forecast is in store to kick off the new work week as the region finds itself on the upstream side of the departing upper level trough. With the surface high pressure now to our southeast, light to calm surface winds have returned to south/southeast flow in response. Weak upper level ridging continues to build in over North and Central Texas, with a stream of scattered cirrus moving mainly across northern North Texas this evening. Expect these clouds to continue to move overhead tonight.

Though some cloud cover is expected, the denser coverage is expected to stay further north into Oklahoma overnight. As such, tonight is looking like a decent setup for radiational cooling.
Winds are expected to stay/become light in response to complete decoupling of the boundary layer. Those light winds, coupled with mostly clear skies and dry conditions, will allow temperatures to bottom out in the upper 20s to low 30s for most. However, the more urban/higher terrain areas will be able to stay in the mid 30s overnight. All in all, it will be a chilly morning on Monday, so make sure to bring a jacket for that morning commute.

After a cold start, south to southwesterly winds and plenty of sunshine will allow for temperatures to warm up into the upper 50s to mid 60s on Monday afternoon. The steady stream of cirrus is expected to persist across North Texas as the weak upper-level ridge flattens and zonal flow takes hold.

Another decent radiational cooling window is possible, though continued southerly flow will keep us a bit warmer than the previous night. Expect morning lows in the mid 30s to around 40.

Prater

LONG TERM
/Issued 214 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023/ /Monday Night and Beyond/

Ahead of a stronger period of moisture return, light winds and mostly clear skies will allow for another night of decent radiational cooling allowing temperatures to fall into the mid to upper 30s across much of North and Central Texas Monday night. By Tuesday, southerly flow will start a period of warm/moist advection in advance of an approaching upper-level low. Increasing low clouds as well as high clouds streaming in the southwest flow aloft will overspread the area by midday Tuesday. Within this southerly flow regime, expect temperatures to top out in the low to mid 60s despite the increase in cloud cover.

As the upper-level low dives southeastward into the Desert Southwest, increasing moisture advection and synoptic-scale ascent will bring scattered showers and light rain to portions of West Texas and the Texas Panhandle Wednesday through Thursday.
Some of this precipitation could extend as far east as the Highway 281 corridor where we have included 20-40% PoPs both Wednesday and Thursday. Rain chances will increase late Thursday into Friday across the western and southern portions of our forecast area as the aforementioned upper-level low shifts into West Texas and tracks across the center of the state. Meager mid-level lapse rates and very limited instability will keep the potential for thunder on the lower end, with mostly periods of light to moderate rainfall expected through the Thursday night-Friday period. There are still uncertainties as the ultimate track of the upper-level low will determine the extent and timing of the greatest rain chances. A further north track could bring greater chances for rain to portions of North Texas, but a further south track could keep the greatest synoptic-scale forcing and better rain chances south of our forecast area. For now we will keep 50-60% PoPs generally along/south of I-20 and along/west of I-35 late Thursday into Friday. This area will have the greatest potential for 0.5-1.5" of rainfall through the end of the week. Elsewhere, will likely see less than 0.5" with a ~30-40% chance that locations north and east of the Metroplex miss out on the rain entirely.

Increasing cloudiness and subtle near surface cold advection as winds shift more east-northeasterly in advance of this system will bring cooler, more seasonable temperatures in the 50s to low 60s Wednesday through the end of the week. Wrap-around moisture behind this storm system will keep low chances for light rain in the forecast into Saturday clearing from northwest to southeast by the latter half of Saturday. Keep up-to-date with the forecast through the week as we start to move into the range of more near-term, high-resolution model guidance.

Langfeld

AVIATION
/NEW/ /00Z TAFs/

No aviation concerns are expected at the TAF sites within the next 24-30 hours. With surface high pressure moving to our east, winds should return to south flow around 00Z at D10, and around 2Z at ACT. VFR will persist at all sites as cirrus streams across North Texas through tomorrow. Southerly winds less than 10 kts will prevail at all TAF sites through the end of the period.

Prater


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 34 62 40 64 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 28 62 36 64 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 30 59 34 60 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 29 62 35 63 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 29 61 36 62 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 36 62 39 63 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 29 61 36 63 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 33 63 39 65 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 28 64 37 65 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 29 65 36 65 44 / 0 0 0 0 5

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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