The Colony, TX Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for The Colony, TX

June 14, 2024 6:53 AM CDT (11:53 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM
Moonrise 12:55 PM   Moonset 12:46 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near The Colony, TX
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Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 141035 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 535 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

New Aviation, Short Term

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update: No significant adjustments were necessary through the short term forecast this morning with dry and tranquil weather prevailing.
Expect daytime highs in the mid 90s to begin the weekend with heat index values a few degrees higher.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion: /Through Saturday/

Fairly strong mid-level ridging will maintain seasonably hot and rain-free weather heading into the weekend with highs climbing into the mid 90s both today and Saturday. Thanks to decent mixing out of surface dewpoints during peak heating, maximum heat index values are largely expected to remain at or below the 100 degree mark the next couple of afternoons. However, southeast winds will be rather light at just 5-10 mph, and will do little to offer any relief from the summer heat. Otherwise, some passing cirrus spilling southward from convective activity well to our north along the KS/OK border will be the extent of sky cover present through the period.

-Stalley

LONG TERM
/Issued 315 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/ /Saturday Night Onward/

Our mid level ridge will become compromised at the start of the period by a shortwave trough in the Plains, which may be enough to generate a few isolated storms across northwest portions of the forecast area Saturday night or Sunday. Subsidence will remain strong enough, however, to keep it hot and dry for the vast majority of the region, with Sunday highs in the mid 90s being fairly common.

Starting Monday, a weakness in the ridge will persist across the region as the shortwave becomes replaced by the northern flank of an inverted trough / easterly wave over the Gulf. Meanwhile, cyclonic flow aloft will develop across the western CONUS around the base of an upper low entering the Pacific Northwest. The resulting lee-side surface troughing will tighten the pressure gradient, creating a deep southerly fetch from the western Gulf into the Plains. This will begin a period of good moisture advection across the region, with the pattern (trough in the west, ridge in the east, tropical wave over the western Gulf) remaining persistent through most of next week. A slight chance of showers and storms will be the result during the afternoon hours both Monday and Tuesday, with rain chances being mainly confined to areas east of I-35 where moisture should be most abundant.

An exceptionally strong surge of Gulf moisture will occur on Wednesday as the tropical wave treks west across northeastern Mexico and South Texas. The nose of a 2" precipitable water airmass will enter the southeast zones Wednesday afternoon, spreading west across Central Texas Wednesday night into Thursday.
Even north of the 2 inch max, PWATS are progged to be at or above 130% of normal for June. Scattered, diurnally-driven showers and storms should subsequently spread west to include areas along and west of I-35 late Wednesday and Thursday as this moisture swath spreads west. The best rain chances will be across Central Texas in the deeper tropical airmass, where the main threat would be locally heavy rain, with lesser rain chances generally the farther north you go. Due to the scattered nature of the expected convection, will keep POPs conservative and fairly broad-brushed for now.

Precipitation will exit to the west late Thursday as the system crosses Mexico and heads for the Pacific. The ridge aloft will take over once again at the end of next week, with another tropical system possibly taking shape in the Gulf by the following weekend.

30

AVIATION
/NEW/ /12z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with southeast winds of 5-10 kts. FEW/SCT cirrus is present in parts of North Texas associated with dissipating convection far to the north, and this will be the extent of sky cover present at the airports for the next 30 hours.

-Stalley


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 95 74 95 75 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 92 72 92 73 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 93 69 93 72 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 94 70 95 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 94 70 95 73 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 95 73 95 76 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 92 70 94 73 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 94 72 95 74 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 93 72 94 73 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 95 70 95 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




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Dallas/Fort Worth, TX,




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