Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Carlsbad, CA

DISCUSSION
FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

We have fair and warmer weather today, accented by some pretty cumulus clouds over the mountains. We can thank a fleeting ridge of high pressure aloft for the pleasant spring-like temperatures.
Within the broader longwave ridge pattern is a weak low pressure trough that develops Wednesday and Thursday right over SoCal. It will serve to bring cooler weather by a couple degrees, and also help rebuild the marine layer seemingly into a coastal low cloud forecast we can count on. And one that spreads coastal low clouds well inland each night and morning. There is also some instability over the high desert and San Bernardino Mountains indicating a remote chance of thunderstorms Thursday and/or Friday, which we'll keep an eye on, but as of today the chance is pretty microscopic. Breezy onshore winds will increase through mountain passes and into deserts each afternoon and evening.
Isolated pockets, such as through and east of the San Gorgonio Pass, should get gusts at or above 40 mph. Another fleeting ridge on Friday brings slightly warmer weather. Then a big trough develops and deepens as it drops down the coast arriving in SoCal Saturday. Probably the biggest impact will be strong winds in all areas, but particularly in the mountains, deserts and coastal waters. It will also bring cold air, destabilizing the atmosphere, and not a lot of moisture, but enough for showers. Thunderstorms are also not out of the question late Sunday. Snow will fall in the mountains as the snow level drops quickly on Sunday morning (currently showing down to around 5,000 feet). There won't be a lot of precipitation, but some. While confidence is high in the much cooler weather, the winds, and the showers, confidence is lower in the precipitation amounts. Confidence is growing in the timing of the winds and precipitation: Saturday evening through Sunday looks like the stormiest time. We have less confidence on when the storm departs on Monday...ish. Tis the season for closed low pressure systems that separate from the jet stream and give forecasters fits, but this upcoming system doesn't look as capricious as usual. It does move slowly, so next Monday or Tuesday a tepid warming and drying trend appears to get underway.

AVIATION
292000Z
Coasts/Valleys
FEW-SCT low clouds near 2000 ft MSL near the coast, with clear skies in the valleys this afternoon. BKN-OVC clouds will return to the coast 01 to 04Z Wed. Coverage is expected to be more widespread tonight into Wed, filling in the western valleys. Bases will be 600-1000 ft range. Vis restrictions are expected where low clouds intersect higher coastal terrain. Low confidence (25 percent) of low clouds reaching KONT. If low clouds did reach KONT, would occur after 10Z Wed and bases would be under 1000 ft MSL. Low clouds will scatter out 16-18Z Wed, with the potential for only partial clearing near the coast.

Mountains/Deserts...Cu have develop on the coastal mountain slopes, with mostly clear skies in the deserts. Vis will be unrestricted except for places where clouds intersect the terrain. Mostly clear skies are expected for Wed.

MARINE
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Friday. Gusty winds will develop over the coastal waters this weekend, with strongest winds Saturday night and Sunday. Peak gusts of 25 to 32 kt expected. Gale force winds are possible, with a 30 percent chance of winds reaching at least 34 kt in the outer coastal waters near San Clemente Island Saturday night into Sunday morning.

BEACHES
Elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet with sets to 7 feet will occur through Wednesday. Highest surf will occur on south facing beaches today.
Strong rip currents are expected.

SKYWARN
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for Orange County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.