Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oceanside, CA

DISCUSSION
FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

Updated Aviation and Marine discussions for 06z TAF package

High temperatures today are expected to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday for most locations. An additional 3 to 5 degrees of warming is expected on Tuesday, which will bring conditions to a few degrees above average for inland areas and up to 8 degrees above average for the coast.

High pressure aloft will build over the Pacific for the middle to end of the week. Through the forecast period the ridge axis is expected to stay to our west, but with California in it's periphery highs will increase. Warmest conditions will likely be Thursday through Saturday, with highs 6 to 12 degrees above average. Areas of moderate HeatRisk are expected for the Inland Empire and the deserts, with more localized areas of moderate HeatRisk in the far eastern San Diego county valleys. Widespread moderate with areas of localized major HeatRisk expected in the low deserts on Saturday.
Based on current forecast, high temperatures do not look record breaking but some low temperature records will be in jeopardy.

The position of the ridge could allow for some subtropical moisture to sneak into the southwestern United States by the end of the week.
Ensemble members of both the GEFS and ECMWF show a notable increase in precipitable water into the low deserts Friday, with less but still elevated precipitable water Saturday and Sunday. The forecast looks to remain dry at this time so it looks like the main impact from this moisture surge would be tempering the highs across the deserts and an increase in high clouds. Current forecast for the low deserts is 108-112 degrees Friday and Saturday, but if the moisture surge materializes high temperatures would likely be lower than that.

There is some uncertainty with highs Sunday, especially for the desert areas. Highs in the desert have the potential to be hotter on Sunday compared to Friday/Saturday if the moisture surge is significantly weaker. There is higher confidence that areas west of the mountains will cool a degree or two by Sunday.

For much of this week the marine layer is expected to be on the shallower side, staying confined to coastal areas.

AVIATION
090430Z
Coast/Valleys
Coverage of low clouds remains very patchy over coastal areas late this evening. Expect low clouds to eventually fill in reaching 15 to 20 miles inland by 11-13z. Bases will drop to 1500-2000 feet with minor vis reductions possible for elevated inland valleys (4-6SM). 20-30% chance for cigs to reach KONT. Scatter out Tuesday, around 16-17Z. Late onset of low cloud formation again Monday night with SKC expected through Monday evening.

Mountains/Deserts...Thin high clouds tonight clearing Tuesday.
Westerly winds with gusts 25-40 kts through mountain passes and locally into deserts this evening, tapering off 09-12z Tue. Pockets of MOD up/downdrafts and LLWS in lee of mountains.

MARINE
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Saturday.

BEACHES
Surf and rip current activity to increase tonight into Tuesday morning as a southerly swell arrives. Surf peaks Tue-Wed with surf 4- 7 feet and sets up to 11 feet at south-facing beaches, then gradually diminishes late this week. See the Beach Hazards Statement for more details.

SKYWARN
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.



SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from 3 AM PDT Tuesday through Thursday afternoon for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.