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PZZ750 Coastal Waters From San Mateo Point To The Mexican Border And Out To 30 Nm- 204 Am Pst Tue Nov 28 2023
Today..Wind variable less than 10 knots...becoming west 10 knots with gusts to 15 knots this afternoon. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. SWell west 1 to 2 feet at 14 seconds.
Tonight..Wind northwest 10 knots. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. SWell west 1 to 2 feet at 14 seconds.
Wednesday..Wind northwest 10 knots. Gusts to 15 knots in the afternoon. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. SWell west 1 to 2 feet at 13 seconds. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Wind west 10 knots. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. SWell west 2 feet at 12 seconds. Showers likely.
Thursday..Wind west 10 to 15 knots. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. SWell west 2 to 4 feet at 11 seconds. A chance of showers.
Thursday night..Wind northwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots. Wind waves around 2 feet or less...becoming 3 feet after midnight. SWell west 3 to 5 feet. A chance of showers.
Friday..Wind northwest 15 to 20 knots. Wind waves around 4 feet. SWell west 4 to 6 feet. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning.
Friday night..Wind northwest 10 to 15 knots...becoming southwest after midnight. Wind waves around 3 feet in the evening...becoming 2 feet or less. SWell west 5 to 6 feet.
Saturday..Wind variable less than 10 knots...becoming west 10 knots in the afternoon. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. SWell west 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday night..Wind northwest 10 knots...becoming southeast after midnight. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. SWell west 3 to 4 feet.

PZZ700 204 Am Pst Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis for the far southern california coast.. At 1 am, a 1035 mb high was over southeast idaho, a 1018 mb low was over guadalupe island and a 1008 mb low was 500 nm west of san francisco. Weak offshore flow will turn weakly onshore today, but strengthen Wednesday and Thursday. This could lead to hazardous winds in the outer waters late Thursday through Friday night. Northwest winds should ease Saturday.

FXUS66 KSGX 281736 AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 936 AM PST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
Weaker winds today and slightly warmer inland. A series of mostly weak low pressure systems will bring cooling for Wednesday through Friday, chances for showers, and gusty west winds for the mountains and deserts. Then dry with warming for the weekend into the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION
FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

High clouds continue to stream across SoCal this morning, but are much less widespread than the past few days. It was once again another chilly morning for inland areas under mostly clear skies with light winds. Lows this morning dropped into the low to mid 40s in the valleys, and into the 20s to low 30s in the mountains.
Weak offshore winds continue through the passes, with wind gusts generally less than 25 mph. This weak offshore flow will transition to onshore flow this afternoon. Highs today west of the mountains will essentially be the same as yesterday, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s along the coast, and mid 70s for the valleys.

A low pressure system currently situated just off the coast of northern California will begin to progress southeast along the coast on Wednesday. This will strengthen onshore flow and spread cooling inland. Highs on Wednesday are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Tuesday for all areas, with continued cooling into Thursday. In addition to the cooler temperatures, winds will increase across the mountains and deserts and through the passes Wednesday afternoon and evening, with peak gusts to 55 mph.

This system looks to be pretty moisture starved, with rather unimpressive PWAT values in the ensemble solutions. Almost all the ensembles are wet though, so expect some precipitation later on Wednesday into Thursday, but it won't be much. The storm is on track to bring the highest precipitation totals to southern San Diego County, with very little for areas north of San Diego County Wednesday evening into Thursday.

This wave will race east on Thursday, with another system on it's heels for later Thursday into Friday. Guidance since yesterday has trended more inside with this system, with the system looking to stay more to our northeast and not move much into Southern California. As expected with a more inside track, our QPF forecast has trended down for Thursday and Friday. The highest rainfall amounts look to occur Friday morning on the coastal mountain slopes.

Forecast rainfall totals Wednesday through Friday:

Orange County and Inland Empire: 0.05 to 0.20 inch San Diego coast and valleys: 0.25 to 0.40 inch San Bernardino mountains: 0.20 to 0.40 inch Riverside mountains: 0.20 to 0.60 inch San Diego mountains: 0.35 to 0.65 inch Deserts: 0.00 to 0.10 inch

Snow levels will be above 6000 feet Wednesday and Thursday, then drop to around 5500 feet on Friday. Some snow accumulation will be possible on Friday in the mountains, but it's not looking like much, perhaps an inch or two above 6000 feet.

So overall after today, expect cooler conditions, more cloud cover, stronger onshore winds, and periods of showers. The precipitation won't amount to much, but we will take anything we can get during the typical peak of our fire season.

Ensembles are pretty set on a ridge of high pressure building in after the low departs to the east this weekend. This will bring us dry and warmer conditions through at least the first half of next week.

AVIATION
281630Z...FEW-SCT high clouds AOA 15000 feet this morning. Low clouds with bases near 1500 feet MSL increase around 12Z Wed, with local vis reduced 3-5SM along inland extent of clouds in valleys.
Low confidence in onset of low cloud coverage, low clouds could reach coastal TAF sites as early as 08Z Wed for KCRQ/KSNA and as early 03Z for KSAN. Better confidence in cig heights being 1500-2000 ft MSL.

MARINE
Northwest wind gusts 20-25 kt over the outer waters Thursday night through Friday night, which could lead to hazardous conditions.
Otherwise, no hazardous marine weather conditions through Saturday.

SKYWARN
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.



SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...None.

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San Clemente
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Tue -- 02:29 AM PST     1.95 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:33 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:04 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:43 AM PST     6.45 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:07 PM PST     -1.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:42 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:45 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:37 PM PST     3.59 feet High Tide
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San Clemente, California, Tide feet

La Jolla
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Tue -- 02:18 AM PST     2.25 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:30 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:01 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:37 AM PST     6.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:04 PM PST     -0.95 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:42 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:45 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:47 PM PST     3.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

La Jolla, Scripps Pier, California, Tide feet

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