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PZZ750 Coastal Waters From San Mateo Point To The Mexican Border And Out To 30 Nm- 222 Am Pst Wed Nov 29 2023
Today..Wind northwest 10 knots. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. SWell west 1 to 2 feet at 13 seconds. A slight chance of showers this afternoon.
Tonight..Wind west 10 knots. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. SWell west 2 feet at 12 seconds. A chance of showers.
Thursday..Wind west 10 knots. Gusts to 15 knots in the afternoon. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. SWell west 2 to 3 feet at 11 seconds. A chance of showers.
Thursday night..Wind northwest 10 to 15 knots. Wind waves around 2 feet or less...becoming 3 feet after midnight. SWell west 3 to 5 feet at 9 seconds. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening.
Friday..Wind south 10 knots...becoming west in the afternoon. Gusts to 15 knots. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. SWell west 5 to 6 feet at 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Friday night..Wind northwest 10 knots in the evening...becoming variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. SWell west 4 to 5 feet.
Saturday..Wind variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. SWell west 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday night..Wind variable less than 10 knots...becoming northwest 10 knots after midnight. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. SWell west 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Wind variable less than 10 knots...becoming west 10 knots in the afternoon. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. SWell west 2 feet.
Sunday night..Wind north 10 knots in the evening...becoming variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. SWell west 2 to 3 feet.

PZZ700 222 Am Pst Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis for the far southern california coast.. At 1 am, a 1024 mb high was over the great salt lake, a 1015 mb low covered the northern gulf of california, and a 1011 mb low was 200 nm west of san francisco at the core of a storm system. Onshore flow will strengthen for today through Friday. Some gusts in the outer waters could exceed 20 knots late Thursday through early Friday, creating possibly hazardous conditions. Northwest flow continues Friday through Saturday, with weak offshore flow developing Sunday.

FXUS66 KSGX 290511 AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 911 PM PST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
A series of mostly weak low pressure systems will bring cooling through Friday with increasing clouds, chances for showers, and gusty west winds for the mountains and deserts. Then dry and warmer for the weekend into the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION
FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

This evening, scattered mid and high clouds moving from west to east across the region ahead of a closed upper low off the coast of NorCal. High resolution model ensembles show some low clouds forming over the coastal areas early Wednesday morning but in the absence of a marine layer inversion, the boundary layer should remain well-mixed making it difficult for stratus clouds to form.
Any low clouds that do form are likely to be patchy.

The closed upper low off the coast of NorCal will move southeast over SoCal becoming an open wave in the process. It's currently producing showers off the NorCal coast and is expected to bring some of that energy and moisture southward with it. This system will strengthen the onshore flow and bring cooling to the region.
High temperatures on Wednesday are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today for all areas, with continued cooling into Thursday. In addition to the cooler temperatures, winds will strengthen across the mountains and deserts and through the passes Wednesday afternoon and evening, with peak gusts 45 to 50 mph.

There isn't an abundance of moisture with this system and medium range ensembles are showing only modest precipitable water. Most ensemble members across model platforms are indicating some precipitation, so expect some rainfall - mostly in the form of showers - later on Wednesday into Thursday, but it won't be much.
The storm is on track to bring the highest precipitation totals to southern San Diego County, with very little for areas north of San Diego County Wednesday evening into Thursday.

This wave will move east on Thursday, with another system on its heels for later Thursday into Friday. model guidance has further trended this storm more to our north and inland, so our rainfall forecast has trended lower from the previous forecast. The highest rainfall amounts will likely occur on the coastal mountain slopes of the San Diego County mountains, with very little accumulation expected north of San Diego County.

Forecast rainfall totals Wednesday through Friday: Orange County and Inland Empire: 0.00 to 0.10 inch San Diego coast and valleys: 0.15 to 0.30 inch San Bernardino mountains: 0.00 to 0.10 inch Riverside mountains: 0.00 to 0.10 inch San Diego mountains: 0.15 to 0.45 inch Deserts: 0.00 to 0.05 inch

Snow levels will be above 6000 feet Wednesday and Thursday, then drop to around 5500 feet on Friday. Some snow accumulation will be possible on Friday in the mountains, but it's not looking like much, perhaps up to an inch above 6000 feet.

Beyond Friday, model ensembles are indicating a ridge of high pressure building in from the west after the low departs to the east this weekend. This will bring us dry and warmer conditions through at least the first half of next week. Weak offshore flow is indicated for next Monday and Tuesday but it's an open question as to whether or not it can stop the formation of marine layer low clouds.

AVIATION
290400Z
Coast/Valleys
FEW-SCT high clouds AOA 20000 feet this evening. Patchy low cloud coverage with bases near 1500-3000 feet MSL starting 15-18Z Wed. Local vis reduced 3-5SM along inland extent of clouds in valleys. Low confidence in onset time of low cloud coverage. -SHRA possible after 21Z Wed, most likely in San Diego county. Vis down to 2SM and cigs locally near 1000 ft MSL in SHRA.
SHRA look to continue intermittently into Thursday morning, again mostly across San Diego County.

Mountains/Deserts...Westerly winds with gusts 35 to 45 kt over the mountains, through passes, and into the deserts after 18Z Wed-06Z Thu.

MARINE
Northwest wind gusts near 20 kt over the outer waters Thursday night through Friday night. During that same time, an incoming northwest swell of 6-7 ft and 8 seconds from 280 degrees is expected. Choppy seas and hazardous boating conditions are likely in the outer coastal waters.

SKYWARN
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...None.

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San Clemente
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Wed -- 03:01 AM PST     2.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:34 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:04 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:17 AM PST     6.15 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:42 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 04:50 PM PST     -0.79 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:41 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:31 PM PST     3.40 feet High Tide
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