Crooked Creek, GA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Crooked Creek, GA

June 18, 2024 9:10 AM EDT (13:10 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:22 AM   Sunset 8:45 PM
Moonrise 4:47 PM   Moonset 2:32 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crooked Creek, GA
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Area Discussion for - Peachtree City, GA
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FXUS62 KFFC 181041 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 641 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

New 12Z Aviation Discussion

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Highlights:

-Warm temperatures continue through Wednesday.

-An isolated shower cannot be ruled out in south-central GA today and Wednesday. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions expected.

Mid- and high level clouds blanket portions of the forecast area early this morning. Winds remain light and temperature readings are in the 70s. Midlevel ridging has shifted slightly eastward though remains parked across much of the eastern CONUS with high pressure just off the East coast. In addition to midlevel cu and high cirrus, easterly winds will pick up late morning as mixing begins to occur.
Today most locations will remain dry, though some isolated showers and/or storms cannot be ruled out at the highest elevations in the northeast (terrain induced) and across far south-central Georgia.
Any storms that develop could produce gusty winds (inverted V- Sounding) and locally heavy rainfall.

Temperatures both today and on Wednesday are forecast to be slightly 'cooler' than previous days with forecast highs in the upper 80s to low 90s (80s in the mountains). Forecast lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Lower dewpoints and afternoon RH values will keep heat indices near the actual temperature. Nevertheless, continue to be proactive if outdoors!

07

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 258 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Key Messages:

- A gradual rise in temperatures is expected between Thursday and Monday, with heat index values between 100 and 105 degrees possible by early next week.

- Generally dry weather is forecast through Saturday, then thunderstorm activity may pick up in the region during the first half of next week.

Thursday:

No tangible changes have been made to the forecast for Thursday.
Guidance still favors a strong (598 dm at 500 mb) ridge over the Mid- Atlantic. Though recent model runs have sought to extend the core of the ridge further to the west (through the central Appalachians and into TN & KY). Across Georgia this shift in the ridge suggests a greater eastelry component to our winds aloft, but it doesn't portend any significant changes to the temperature or precipitation forecast. Low PW values and limited instability should still result in dry weather across central and northern Georgia, and high temperatures in the 88 to 93 degree range are anticipated.

Pattern shifts between Friday and Early Next Week:

Trends in the GEFS and EPS guidance continue to favor a weakening trend and westward shift in upper level ridge during this period as a trough moves through the Great Lakes and eastern Canada. This may bring some gradual cooling to the Northeast, though it will have minimal impacts for the Southeast. Our temperatures in Georgia may actually rise due to projected increases in temperatures in the lower half of the atmosphere (850 mb temps rising to 2-4 C above average). Our forecast highs from Friday through Tuesday remain close to the NBM mean, suggesting highs in the upper 90s for most of the region over the weekend. Some areas could see highs break the tipple digit barrier. NBM guidance gives Atlanta a 14% chance to reach 100 degrees on Sunday, while Macon has a 27% chance of reaching the same threshold. For now the forecast keeps the regions heat index values below 105 degrees (the threshold for a Heat Advisory). A small change of only 1-3 degrees in the forecast dewpoints or temperatures could push heat indices above 105 (especially on Sunday or Monday), and thus there is a non zero chance of a Heat Advisory for portions of the state this weekend or early next week.

Another feature to watch over the weekend will be an easterly wave tracking through the Western Atlantic (near the Bahamas). The National Hurricane Center has maintained a 20% chance (a slight downward shift from 30%) for this feature to develop into a tropical system with their latest outlook. Though this is a slight decrease, it doesn't change the overall message, and this is still a feature that that will need to be monitored for potential impacts in Georgia. A look at the ensemble guidance does suggest one interesting forecast trend with this feature over the last 24 hours.
In general, the GEFS and EPS members have shifted towards a slower and more eastelry track, which slightly slows the return of higher PW values to Georgia. Both ensembles means are 12-24 hours slower with PW values reaching 1.5 inches across the state. This shift appears to be largely due to slightly stronger ridging to our west impeding the westward progress of the eastelry wave. From a forecast stand point it suggests a slight delay in the return of scattered shower and thunderstorms chances to the state. Thus our forecast rain chances have fallen below 15% for most of north Georgia on Saturday, though 15-30% chances remain for Central Georgia. All things considered tough, forecast confidence remains high that we will shift towards a pattern more favorable for isolated to scattered thunderstorms early next week.

Albright

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

VFR conditions with no impacts expected through the period.
SCT-BKN 3-4kft cigs remain to the north of the northern terminals this morning and not expected to move into these sites. Elected to include FEW-SCT 4-5kft cigs for a few hours this morning. ESE/SE winds will pick up to 8-13kts with gusts ranging 18-22kts as early as 16z persisting until 00z. Any iso shra/tsra expected to remain to the southeast of all terminals.

//ATL Confidence
12Z Update

Medium confidence on lower cigs moving into ATL this morning.
High confidence on all elements.

07

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 67 87 67 89 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 71 89 70 90 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 63 82 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 70 89 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 73 90 70 92 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 68 86 68 87 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 69 90 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 71 89 69 92 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 69 89 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 71 90 69 91 / 10 20 10 10

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KMLJ BALDWIN COUNTY RGNL,GA 5 sm15 minESE 07G1410 smClear79°F70°F74%30.16
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