NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Drier air moves into the region with limited chances for rain.

A weak cold front continues to slowly move through the forecast area with the VAD wind profiler indicating NE winds in the low levels and water vapor imagery indicating NW flow developing aloft, promoting drier air, especially in the northern portion of the forecast area. HRRR mean indicates that instability will be weak to potentially moderate in the CSRA with at least a chance of showers or a stray storm in the southeastern portion of the forecast area with more limited chances farther to the northeast. Highs will be a few degrees below seasonal average, in the upper 80s to around 90. Drier air continues to move in tonight which should allow lows to dip into the 60s in the northeast to around 70 elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Key Message(s):

- Drier air mass in place leading to lower rain chances

The forecast area will be in between upper systems with a closed low off the New England coast and another upper trough moving into the Ohio/Tennessee Valley region. At the surface, the stalled frontal boundary will remain well southeast of the area across southern GA/northern FL with a drier air mass in place. PWAT values are forecast to be below normal with a gradient across the region with values around an inch in the Pee Dee region to around 1.7 in the CSRA. Forecast soundings indicate significant dry air in the mid levels and with little upper forcing do not expect much in the way of rain chances.
Cannot totally rule out an isolated shower in the CSRA closer to the deeper moisture but expect dry weather Sunday. Temperatures are expected to be near normal with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Key Message(s):

- Active weather expected early next week with increasing rain chances.
- More typical summer weather pattern returns late in the week with rising temperatures and daily thunderstorm chances.

Global ensembles show upper level troughing over the forecast area early next week, allowing for increased moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico and PWATs are expected to rise back above normal through midweek. PWATs around 2 inches will combine with a series of shortwaves moving through the base of the upper trough on Monday and Tuesday resulting in scattered to possibly numerous showers and thunderstorms. Forecast soundings indicate weak to moderate instability with skinny CAPE and moist adiabatic profiles indicating a minimal severe threat, but the heavy rain threat will return with deep warm layer depth.

Later in the week, the upper trough axis should shift east of the forecast area with upper level ridging building into the region on Wednesday through the end of the week as 500mb flow more zonal to northwesterly. Atmospheric moisture is forecast to lower but remain near normal and expect generally typical summer conditions through the end of the week with diurnally favored convection, although the northwest flow may lend itself to a nocturnal MCS approaching from the Upstate. Temperatures should be warming back to near to above normal by Thu/Fri with highs pushing back in the mid and upper 90s with heat indices over 100 degrees.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Restrictions expected to develop early this morning then VFR the rest of the period.

Some patchy stratus is developing across the area but to this point has not impacted the terminals. Over the next several hours expect MVFR ceilings to develop with IFR ceilings possible at OGB. These restrictions are expected to linger after sunrise but dissipating by mid to late morning. Drier air moving into the area will limit the potential for showers or storms impacting the terminals and continued dry air moving into the area will also limit the potential for restrictions tonight.
Winds will be generally out of the northeast.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low potential for restrictions Sunday. Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions Monday through Wednesday as moisture returns to the area.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
GA...None.