NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Convective activity diminishing

Convective activity across the are continues to diminish with sunset however showers and thunderstorms continue in the Upstate and east central GA. With sunset and loss of heating expect the convection to continue dissipating however with surface boundaries from earlier convection there is the potential for a few new cells to develop as the boundaries collide. By the early morning hours a weak surface boundary will be working through the forecast area from the north bringing slightly drier air to the area. This will help end any remaining showers however skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy through daybreak. Overnight lows will mainly be in the lower 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Key Message:

- Noticeably drier air moves into the region this weekend with lower rain chances.

Upper level trough will push through the mid-Atlantic, driving a frontal boundary south of the area. This will usher in drier air, with PW values dropping to less than 1.5" in the Columbia area by Saturday afternoon. The exception will be the CSRA where PW may remain closer to 1.7" much of the weekend. This should keep rain chances mainly south and west of the I-26 corridor, and any showers or thunderstorms will be isolated or scattered in nature.
Temperatures expected to be slightly below normal this weekend.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Key Message:

- A more typical summer weather pattern over the region with moisture returning to the region.

Upper ridge becomes more zonal into early next week as deeper moisture makes a return to the region. PW values return to just shy of 2" by Monday afternoon, with temperatures beginning a gradual warming trend. A few relatively weak mid-level shortwaves moving through the flow may be the main impetus for shower and thunderstorm development, which shouldn't be that difficult as temperatures return to normal. Overall, convection should be relatively unorganized with a typical summertime scattered rain chances.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions through much of the period with MVFR to IFR during the early morning hours.

Scattered low clouds remain across the area with convection moving southeast of the terminals and an isolated shower or two in the Upstate. Through daybreak the main concern is the potential for stratus and fog to develop. A surface boundary will drop southward through the area tonight and Saturday bringing slightly lower dewpoints to the area. With the rain earlier today and plenty of surface moisture expect stratus to develop over the area tonight with the greatest potential over CAE/CUB/OGB. Restrictions will gradually erode after sunrise with the remainder of the period expected VFR. Chances of convection remain too low to include for 16z onward however the greatest chance would be at AGS/DNL. Winds through the period will be northeasterly at 9 knots or less.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low potential for restrictions Sunday. Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions Monday through Wednesday as moisture returns to the area.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
GA...None.