NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Key Message(s):

- Warming trend begins today with just isolated showers across parts of the northern/central Midlands.

The axis of an upper trough has shifted just to our east as ridge builds in from the southwest, putting us into a northwest flow regime. At the surface, high pressure continues to filter in from the north. The upper ridge and trough are expected to drift eastward through the day as the surface high pushes southward. As a result, a generally dry and warm day can be expected for much of the area. The one fly in the ointment is that a weak shortwave within the northwest flow could be just strong enough to bring a slight chance (~15%) of few showers or an isolated thunderstorm to the northern and central Midlands this afternoon. After daytime heating wanes, the chance for any precipitation diminishes. Afternoon highs are expected to be a few degrees warmer than Thursday, while overnight lows should be similar to Thursday night.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Key Message(s):

- Upper ridge builds over the area this weekend with warming temps

Upper ridging centered over the OH/TN Valleys will build over the Carolinas this weekend as an upper trough over the four corners region lifts northeastward toward the Central Plains.
Surface high pressure centered over New England and the Mid- Atlantic will continue to ridge into the Carolinas through the weekend. There is the possibility of isolated showers developing in the northwesterly flow aloft late Saturday but moisture is limited with PWATs around 1.2-1.5 inches.

Most guidance keeps any showers north of the forecast area, so will continue to carry a dry forecast. Forecast soundings show a strong subsidence inversion which should further limit instability and rain potential. 850mb temperatures rise a few degrees over the weekend and expect highs to be near to above normal Saturday and above normal on Sunday. NBM probabilities of max temps greater than 90 degrees on Sunday are over 50 percent across much of the southern half of the area.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Key Message(s):

- Generally benign weather with near to above normal temperatures - Chances of rain increase on Wednesday with limited confidence

Ensemble guidance shows positive 500mb height anomalies with an upper ridge remaining over the Carolinas into midweek with high pressure in control at the surface but shifting offshore by Tuesday. This should lead to continued warm temperatures with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. More uncertainty arrives in the forecast by midweek as ensembles and deterministic models handle a potential tropical system moving into the Gulf of Mexico near the end of the forecast period.

The GFS and its ensembles are a bit deeper with the next upper trough moving through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday which picks up a system moving into the Gulf, while the EC and its ensembles are less amplified and do not have that system in the Gulf of Mexico until later in the week beyond the forecast period.
Regardless, moisture increases over the region and low chances of rain return to the forecast on Wednesday. Temperatures expected to remain above normal but cool a bit by mid week with the approaching upper trough.

AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions expected for much of the period.

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through most of the forecast period. Light northeast winds expected today, then diminish and shift more easterly after about 00z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation expected through Tuesday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
GA...None.