Sunrise 6:20 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM Moonrise 5:51 PM   Moonset 3:56 AM

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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 411 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2024
Tonight - E winds 10 to 15 kt early, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Wed - NE winds 5 kt, becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Thu - S winds 5 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Thu night - S winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Fri - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Fri night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Sat - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less.
charleston harbor water temperature 76 degrees.

AMZ300 411 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - High pressure will persist into late week. Diurnal convection is expected during the weekend. A cold front might approach early next week.

FXUS62 KCAE 211746 AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 146 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will dominate the region through early Thursday keeping fair and dry conditions in place along with warming temperatures. A frontal boundary will approach the region Thursday night and Friday and is expected to stall just north of the area resulting in chances of showers and thunderstorms Friday through next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Dry high pressure remains over the region with partly to mostly sunny skies. Temperatures should top out in the mid 80s.

Tonight, the combination of high pressure in place and clearing skies with light and variable to calm winds, strong radiational cooling is expected. Leaned toward the cooler guidance and in line with local radiation scheme with lows again in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Low level flow does shift around to the southeast off the Atlantic, although generally weak, and may support some stratus and fog across the Coastal Plain which may reach the eastern Midlands. If this does occur, temperatures may plateau or rise slightly thereafter.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
High confidence in a fairly quiet period through Friday as guidance is in good agreement on the expected pattern. Upper level ridging is forecast to be centered across the southeastern US by Wednesday morning, with deep troughing settling into the OH Valley. Ensembles & operational models push the axis of this ridge offshore by Thursday evening, with more zonal flow emerging on its heels. The ridging will keep us warm, dry, and sunny on Wednesday. Highs are likely to be in the low 90s during the afternoon, with only a few clouds. A strong mid-level inversion looks to settle in with subsidence beneath the ridging, so chances of rain are near zero. Clear skies and lows in the low 60s are expected Wednesday night. The zonal flow is forecast to take over on Thursday at the same time as we begin to see an increase in low-level moisture across the forecast area. Surface theta-e is forecast to climb to 340-345k across the area on the western side of the surface high across the Atlantic, increase potential instability. However, it still looks like a strong cap will remain in place and keep storms at bay for most of the area. The GFS/NAM/LREF suite of members do show a weak shortwave trough approaching by Thursday evening.
Thinking that this could break the cap in the northern FA and spark an isolated to scattered storm across that area. Bumped PoPs up to slight chance as a result of this. LREF probabilities of >0.01" of rain in the period are 20-30%, which support the idea that, while not widespread, some precip is definitely possible with this shortwave. Highs will likely be in the lower 90s on Thursday, with overnight lows in the upper 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Fairly high confidence in the general pattern in the long term.
LREF member means and operational models are in fairly good agreement showing zonal flow continuing through early next week, with multiple robust shortwaves progressing through the flow in the long term period. At the surface, rich BL moisture characterized by high theta-e, PWs 125-130% of normal, and dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70 will be in place. This is forecast to all sit southward of a slow moving surface front that should approach on Friday and become diffuse or weak around the area into the weekend. Combine all of this with seasonally warm temps in the low 90s and the stage is set for a fitting start to the summer season and Memorial Day Weekend. So look for highs to be 90-95F each day through early next week, with chances for storms each afternoon as well. Given the strength of some of these shortwaves combined with the rich low-level moisture that is expected and there is a chance that strong storms become a possibility each afternoon. The mesoscale details will be important, so stay abreast of the forecast especially if you have outdoor plans this weekend. For what its worth, the CSU ML Probabilities are showing elevated severe probabilities at this range on Sat/Sun/Mon, so it will be worth watching this weekend. A more developed system and front look likely to push in and through the region by the middle of next week, which could cool us down if the front actually materializes.

AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High confidence in VFR conditions all terminals through 06z then possible predawn vsby restrictions in patchy fog primarily at fog prone OGB/AGS.

High pressure remains in place across the region with a relatively dry air mass in place. However, low level winds overnight shift more southeasterly and may allow for some weak onshore flow possibly leading to early morning fog/stratus over the Coastal Plain. Some guidance suggesting OGB may be impacted by fog with MVFR/IFR vsby restrictions during the 08z-12z time frame. Also feel AGS could be at risk as well so included restrictions at both OGB/AGS but keep VFR conditions elsewhere where confidence is lower. Winds this afternoon from the east around 5 to 7 knots should diminish to near calm overnight before picking up from the southwest at 5 knots or less by 15z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant flight restrictions are currently anticipated through Thursday outside of brief morning fog. Low probability of restrictions during the late week period into the weekend from afternoon and evening convection.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
GA...None.

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Cuckolds Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:41 AM EDT     1.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:01 PM EDT     3.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:36 PM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cuckolds Creek, Combahee River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Tulifiny River
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:00 AM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:40 AM EDT     4.68 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:55 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:09 PM EDT     5.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tulifiny River, I-95 bridge, South Carolina, Tide feet

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Charleston, SC,