Gilbert, AZ Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gilbert, AZ

June 15, 2024 4:41 AM MST (11:41 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:15 AM   Sunset 7:39 PM
Moonrise 1:51 PM   Moonset 1:10 AM 
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Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 150950 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 250 AM MST Sat Jun 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry conditions with above normal temperatures will continue this weekend with local Excessive Heat Warnings remaining in effect.
The hottest day will be today with highs at least 5 degrees above normal and breaching 110 degrees for many lower desert communities. Readings will retreat several degrees back closer to normal levels early next week as a series of weather disturbances stream north of the area. A return to warmer than normal conditions is likely during the latter half of next week.

DISCUSSION
Upper level ridging has once again spread over much of the region with H5 heights of around 591dm across southern California and southern Arizona, or around the 90th percentile of climatology.
The ridge will boost temperatures today several degrees over yesterday's highs, reaching to between 110-113 degrees across much of the lower deserts. By tonight, a large Pacific trough digging southeastward through the Pacific Northwest will begin to suppress heights over our region. This will help to bring some slight cooling to the area starting Sunday as highs fall back to 107-111 degrees across the lower deserts. The approaching trough will also cause winds to pick up across the area this weekend with widespread breezy afternoon/evening conditions kicking in on Sunday and lasting through Monday.

Further cooling will occur early next week as the Pacific trough digs farther south toward our region, but with the core of the trough only reaching as far south as northern Utah. Forecast highs Monday are shown falling back closer to 105 degrees, or within the normal range, while overnight lows drop well into the 70s.
These normal temperatures should persist through Wednesday as broad troughing is likely to continue to influence the region.

Unfortunately, the unseasonably strong ridge that will impact the Eastern U.S. early next week is expected to shift southwestward midweek before sliding into our region by next Thursday. Ensemble mean H5 heights are forecast to rise back to between 590-594dm later next week as the sub-tropical ridge shifts back into our region. There are still some model differences in the strength of the ridge, but the NBM shows fairly low spread in boosting lower desert highs to above 110 degrees over most of the lower deserts as early as next Thursday. The NBM shows the hottest temperatures falling on Friday with readings closer to 115 degrees right before increasing moisture likely begins to curtail temperatures into the following weekend. Guidance has been consistent in showing a gradual uptick in low and mid level moisture later next week with low end eastern Arizona higher terrain shower and thunderstorm chances beginning as early as Thursday. As of now, this moisture increase doesn't look good enough to bring lower desert rain chances, but it very well could result in gusty outflow winds into the south-central Arizona deserts at some point.

AVIATION
Updated at 0500Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

Surface winds have begun to transition to downvalley/drainage patterns which will prevail through mid morning. Winds will transition to predominantly southwesterly directions in the afternoon with some minor gustiness (15-20kts). As for sky cover, skies will be clear except for some afternoon cumulus near and north of the Mogollon Rim.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Familiar nocturnal wind patterns have developed (favoring west/southwest directions). Winds will weaken toward morning becoming southeasterly at KIPL and light and variable at KBLH.
During the afternoon, expect for some enhanced southerly breeziness at KBLH (gusts to 25kts) with more minor southeasterly gustiness (15-20kts) at KIPL. Saturday evening, directions at KIPL will shift to southwest/westerly with some gusts up to 20kts (more subtle change at KBLH to SSWly). Otherwise, clear skies.

FIRE WEATHER
Hot, very dry, and breezy conditions are expected through Monday with increased winds Sunday and Monday resulting in elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. Wind speeds will gradually increase over the weekend with afternoon gusts at times reaching 20-25 mph today and 25-30 mph on Sunday and Monday. Higher terrain areas in Arizona are likely to see the strongest winds on Monday with gusts as highs as 30-35 mph possible. Minimum afternoon humidity levels will continue to fall into the 5-10% range through Monday following poor overnight recovery of only 15-30%. Afternoon humidity levels will improve modestly to 10-15% range Tuesday and Wednesday before falling back to 5-10% later next week. Strong high pressure should build back over the districts during the latter half of next week resulting in warming temperatures, but also weakening winds. There are a few models suggesting somewhat better moisture sneaking into eastern Arizona beyond next weekend yielding a few thunderstorms over mountain areas, yet confidence is very low given any early season activity typically results in little actual wetting rainfall.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ534-537>555- 559-560-562.

CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ562- 563-566-567-570.




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