Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gilbert, AZ

DISCUSSION
Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper low spinning over Utah with this feature expected to dive southward into northern AZ by this evening. As this upper low continues to sag southward, a surface cold front will also move southward as well reaching central AZ late this afternoon through this evening. Along this front, a line of showers is expected to break out and affect most of south- central AZ heading into this evening. Activity, however, should be short-lived and thus only light rainfall amounts are expected ranging between a few hundredths of an inch across the Phoenix area, 0.1-0.2" across the foothills, and 0.15-0.30" across the higher terrain areas to the north and east of Phoenix. A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out with these showers as they move across given that there will be 50-100 J/KG of CAPE available based on the latest HRRR. There will also be a gusty wind threat associated with these showers with the 12z HRRR indicating about a 30-50% of wind gusts of 35+ mph this evening. Most of the shower activity should end across the Phoenix metro around midnight and across the higher terrain areas east of Phoenix by around sunrise.
Temperatures today with the negative height anomalies from the approaching trough will continue to be below normal with afternoon highs in the middle to upper 70s across the lower deserts.

As the main troughing feature pushes eastward into New Mexico on Saturday, increasing subsidence and much drier air will push into the region with mostly clear skies prevailing. Lingering negative height anomalies from the departing trough will continue to result in below normal temperatures once again for Saturday as highs are expected to top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the lower deserts. Starting on Sunday and continuing through most of next week, a quasi-zonal flow pattern will dominate much of Desert Southwest, resulting in quiet and tranquil conditions.
Temperatures on Sunday will warm back up to near seasonal levels, in the middle to upper 80s and then warm to slightly above normal levels heading into next week as highs top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s. By late next week into the following weekend, global models show another trough impinging on the west coast. However, after examining the ensemble clusters, there is a good deal of spread in the overall positioning and depth of the trough as it moves into the western CONUS and thus the temperature spread begins to increase during this period with readings anywhere from slightly below normal to slightly above normal.

AVIATION
Updated at 1720Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Breezy to occasionally windy conditions along with periods of rainfall will be the main aviation concerns during the TAF period.
W'rly winds will prevail through the afternoon and evening, with occasional gusts to around 20 kts. By the early evening, a broken line of showers is projected to move through the metro, which could lead to brief periods of reduced visibilities and gusts potentially reaching (50% chance) upwards of 30 kts. These showers should quickly move out by early tonight while wind speeds relax and switch to the E during much of the overnight. Even with shower activity, VFR conditions are expected to prevail, with CIGs remaining AOA 6k ft. However, brief moments of MVFR VIS cannot be completely ruled out with heavier showers.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Breezy to occasionally windy conditions, especially at IPL will be the main aviation concern over the next 24 hours. Winds are expected to contain a W'rly component through most of the period, with gusts at IPL reaching 25-30 kts this afternoon before speeds relax tonight. At BLH, gusts closer to 20 kts will be common during the afternoon. Other than a relatively brief window of lower-clouds (bases 7-9k ft) moving through this afternoon and evening, skies will be generally clear otherwise.

FIRE WEATHER
A weather system will move through the region through early Saturday will bring more breezy to locally windy conditions and chances for rain. Expect scattered showers and a few thunderstorms mainly this evening across south-central Arizona with activity lingering through the overnight hours across the eastern Arizona higher terrain. Increased moisture and below normal temperatures will keep RHs elevated today with MinRHs between 25-35% before falling back to around 10% by Sunday. Lighter winds are anticipated starting Saturday while temperatures gradually rise back to around normal on Sunday. Tranquil weather conditions are expected for next week with temperatures at or slightly above normal, seasonably dry conditions, and relatively light winds.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ562.