Gilbert, AZ Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gilbert, AZ

February 20, 2024 3:49 PM MST (22:49 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:04 AM   Sunset 6:17 PM
Moonrise 2:47 PM   Moonset 5:03 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gilbert, AZ
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Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 202043 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 143 PM MST Tue Feb 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
After another warm, dry day, a weak weather disturbance will move through the region Wednesday bringing some light rain and temperatures cooling back down to near the seasonal average.
Temperatures will warm back above normal during the latter half of the week, with high temperatures pushing 80 degrees, as high pressure quickly redevelops over the region. A brief period of somewhat cooler and potentially more unsettled weather should return to the area early next week.



DISCUSSION
Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport managed to touch 80F yesterday afternoon and 80F is in the forecast again for this afternoon with ridging and deep southwesterly flow over the region. Most lower desert locations this afternoon will reach the mid to upper 80s.
Much of southern AZ and southeast CA are currently sunny, but not far away, as seen on on visible satellite, is a long fetch band of clouds and moisture extending northeast out of the eastern Pacific. This atmospheric river has once again brought flooding conditions to the windward side of SoCal. This axis of rain and clouds currently extends from SoCal up through Utah. The axis is expected to persist over the same areas through this evening.

A vort max can be seen on water vapor satellite this afternoon, over 500 miles offshore from SoCal, starting to round the base of the longer wave trough in the Pacific. Global and hi-res models show this feature will help kick the larger trough east and guide moisture further inland tonight through Wednesday. However, drier mid and upper level air working in between the deep moisture axis and the vort max is expected to start to break up the main axis of moisture as it progresses east Wednesday morning. While the vort max is expected to track eastward across southern AZ Wednesday, the best rain chances for the interior deserts will be across southeast CA and western and northern AZ. Relatively meager PBL moisture, dew points in the 30s to 40F, and advection of a dry stable layer above 500mb will hurt rain chances in south- central and southeast AZ, despite the vort max track. Locally, latest NBM PoPs are highest (60%) in La Paz County and decrease toward the southeast, down to 10% in southeast Phoenix. A couple embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in La Paz County to northwest Maricopa County.

While the main axis of moisture lifts to the northeast through midday tomorrow, afternoon heating should lead to scattered convective cumulus development across the lower deserts and a few light showers and virga may pop up across south-central AZ, including in Phoenix. The dry stable layer aloft should inhibit any thunderstorm chance tomorrow afternoon.

Overall, rainfall amounts will be very light across the region, mainly below 0.10". All rain chances drop to zero tomorrow evening with the setting of the sun. In addition to the rain, there will also be some breezy conditions, especially at higher elevations as 700-800mb winds reach 30-40 mph. Lower desert surface winds will be lighter than this with sustained winds up to 10-15 mph and gusts at times up to 15-25 mph. A thunderstorm could briefly result in locally stronger gusts. Sudden stronger gustiness in the Phoenix area tomorrow afternoon will also be possible with any light shower or virga as T-Td spreads will be upwards of 25-30F.

The shortwave trough tomorrow will suppress the 500mb heights over the region, but not by too much. Going from 576-578dm in south- central AZ this afternoon down to 566-568dm tomorrow afternoon.
This will result in a slight cooldown in afternoon temperatures, down ~4-8F across the region. By Thursday morning, the shortwave trough will already be pushing into the Midwest and heights in the Southwest will gradually rise again in quasi-zonal flow and temperatures will warm 2-4F from tomorrow's highs. Heights rise further, along with temperatures Friday as ridging starts to amplify across the West downstream of another Pacific low.
Likelihood of afternoon high temperatures reaching or exceeding 80F go back up Friday through this weekend. People should be mindful of the heat this weekend, especially if spending long hours outdoors exposed to the sun. The forecast highs (upper 70s to low 80s) and lows (low to mid 50s) will be pushing minor HeatRisk in many populated areas, like Phoenix, Yuma, and El Centro.

PREVIOUS FORECAST
Ensemble output falls in somewhat better agreement early next week, however there is still considerable uncertainty on the handling of strong PV descending from the Gulf of Alaska into the Pacific NW and interaction with pre-existing East Pacific troughing. While there has been increased dispersion among GEFS solutions, the larger majority still depicts more intense negative PV creating a stronger meridional jet on the western flank of the deepening trough allowing more prolific phasing and deepening of negative heights over the western Conus. A larger proportion of CMC and EPS members suggest a more sheared PV favoring intensification of wave breaking downstream into the plains heralding back to a pattern favored earlier in the winter. With more GEFS members trending towards the NAEFS mean of deepening troughing downstream of the forecast area, would favor this outcome of another short period of cooler, unsettled weather with precipitation focused towards orographic influences during the Monday/Tuesday time frame. Evidence and odds are growing that dry, moderating weather will rapidly return to the region during the middle and latter half of next week.

AVIATION
Updated at 1800Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No aviation weather concerns are anticipated through the TAF period under high clouds. Surface winds will tend to favor diurnal patterns and remain light (aob 8 kt). A slow westerly wind switch is expected again this afternoon, with winds first favoring S as early as 18Z before continuing to veer W by early this evening.
Late tonight winds will once again become easterly.

An early shift westerly is anticipated across the metro due to a cold front moving through. Rain chances with this front are too low (10-20%) to mention any VCSH conditions at this time.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Brief periods of rain are the only anticipated impact through the TAF period, mainly at BLH. At KIPL current southerly winds will become northwesterly during the afternoon hours. At KBLH current southerly winds will become southwesterly early this evening. Wind speeds at both terminals will be aob 10 kt through the period.
Cloud bases will generally be aoa 20 kft through the morning hours. During the afternoon and early evening hours FEW-SCT clouds aoa 6 kft will start to move in at both terminals. VCSH conditions are anticipated at BLH to begin around 12z.

FIRE WEATHER
A quick moving weather disturbance will briefly introduce a period of higher moisture, cooler temperatures, and breezy conditions tomorrow will. This will interrupt a period of dry and very warm weather this week. Minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall into a 15-30% range except during this midweek period of slightly better moisture intrusion. Overnight recovery should be mostly good to excellent in a 50-80% range. Somewhat enhanced southwest winds with afternoon gusts upwards of 20-30 mph will affect some districts tomorrow, but otherwise light winds with only limited afternoon upslope gustiness will be more common through the week.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KCHD CHANDLER MUNI,AZ 4 sm62 minS 0710 smClear77°F28°F17%30.08
KIWA PHOENIXMESA GATEWAY,AZ 5 sm59 minS 0810 smClear79°F25°F14%30.08
KFFZ FALCON FLD,AZ 11 sm55 mincalm10 smClear77°F27°F16%30.06
KPHX PHOENIX SKY HARBOR INTL,AZ 16 sm58 minSSW 0810 smMostly Cloudy81°F27°F14%30.05
KCGZ CASA GRANDE MUNI,AZ 24 sm53 minSW 0410 smClear77°F28°F17%30.09
KSDL SCOTTSDALE,AZ 24 sm56 minS 0610 smClear75°F27°F16%30.09
Link to 5 minute data for KCHD


Wind History from CHD
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Phoenix, AZ,



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