Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gilbert, AZ

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions with above normal temperatures will prevail across the region through the end of the week

- An approaching weather system will result in increased cloud cover, breezy conditions, and cooling temperatures this weekend

- Another system early next week will result in further cooling with temperatures falling below normal Monday and Tuesday

SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/
Flat, subtropical ridging was still holding over the SW Conus early this afternoon as a slow moving cyclone off the California coast edges eastward. Upstream meridional flow and increased blocking will ensure synoptic features only progress gradually eastward, however a steady march towards cyclonic flow with lowered midtropospheric heights will ensue over the next 72 hours.
H5 heights in a 576-579dm will be maximized today with levels eroding closer to a 570-574dm range by Saturday afternoon.
Correspondingly, H8 temperatures eclipsing +20C this afternoon will languish closer to +15C Saturday with numerical guidance convincingly advertising afternoon highs gradually cooling from much above levels to just a few degrees warmer than the seasonal normal over the weekend.

While the majority of the region will experience dry conditions through Saturday, a few subtle embedded shortwaves juxtaposed with enhanced midlevel moisture may support a couple isolated showers over higher terrain areas Friday. The main focus should remain in western New Mexico where better ascent and moisture will combine, however HRRR members indicate a non-zero chance of showers clipping southern Gila County. Otherwise, strengthening winds with localized higher gusts will be the primary weather issue the next several days given modest height falls and seasonally deepening mixing depths. The most pronounced winds should remain relegated to far western Imperial County where sundowner/enhanced mountain waves activity will be preferred given the synoptic pattern.
However, the lagging synoptic system and gradual, modest falls may limit the magnitude of winds cresting higher terrain with a more optimal setup not arriving until Sunday or Monday. Nevertheless, model evidence hints at speeds flirting with advisory criteria Friday and Saturday, but not sufficient in time and space to justify any headlines just yet.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/
The cooling trend will continue early next week as large scale troughing becomes established over the Intermountain West. The first in a series of shortwaves embedded in the large scale trough will lift north of our region with a majority of moisture focused into E New Mexico and W Texas. Therefore, NBM PoPs have decreased dramatically and are now only around 10-15% at most, even in the higher terrain areas NE of Phoenix. The main weather impact this weekend will be winds as the mid-lvl height gradient remains compact across the entire region. Gusts will range from 20-25 mph across the lower deserts and upwards of 30-35 mph in the higher terrain areas, especially at mountain peak level. Winds on Sunday may reach low end advisory criteria across portions of SE California and the high terrain of south-central Arizona.

Ensemble members and deterministic guidance are in good agreement that a deeper shortwave trough will progress through the Desert Southwest Monday into Tuesday with H5 anomalies reaching a maximum on Monday. This will be the coolest day of the forecast period with lower desert highs mainly in the low to mid 70s and lows in the 50s. Increasing cloud cover and even a few passing showers will be possible across the northern fringes of the forecast area Monday into early Tuesday as the trough axis passes overhead.
Drier air will begin to filter into the region behind the departing weather system late Tuesday. As H5 anomalies transition from negative to neutral, temperatures will rebound from slightly below normal on Tuesday to near normal by Wednesday.

AVIATION
Updated at 0532Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major aviation weather impacts are expected through Friday under SCT to BKN mid and high cloud decks. Winds will follow a nearly identical diurnal/nocturnal trend to the past 24 hours, with light easterly winds in the morning and gusty W/SW winds in the afternoon (gusts up to 20 kts). No slantwise visibility impacts are expected.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Breezy westerly winds will persist through most of the TAF period at KIPL with strongest gusts, as high as 25-30 kts, expected in the late afternoon through the evening. KBLH will also see SW gusts up to 20-25 kts in the afternoon and evening, but will see light winds during the overnight period tonight with some light variability to calm conditions. SCT to BKN mid and high cloud decks will continue to pass over the area through Friday morning and become FEW by the evening.

FIRE WEATHER
Dry conditions and well above normal temperatures will persist through the end of this week. MinRHs will range from 10-15% today before increasing above 15% starting on Friday. Overnight recovery will generally range from poor to fair across the region over the next couple nights, however low level moisture will trend upward by this weekend resulting in much better recovery up to 50-70%. Winds will follow typical diurnal tendencies, however enhanced upslope gustiness can be anticipated especially across the western districts beginning this afternoon. A weather system will move into the region this weekend, resulting in continued breezy to locally windy conditions and much cooler temperatures. Scattered showers will be possible mainly over the higher terrain of southcentral AZ, but CWR will remain low <10%.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.