Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gilbert, AZ

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and tranquil weather conditions will continue this weekend with slightly above normal temperatures and generally clear skies.

- A fast moving weather system will bypass the area to the north on Monday dropping temperatures back into the normal range with dry conditions lasting into the middle part of next week.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The weather pattern remains quiet across the Southwestern U.S.
with quasi-zonal flow now in place. A closed low is currently diving southward well off the California coast, while a much weaker disturbance is entering the Pacific Northwest. For the rest of today and Sunday, our region will stay quiet with dry air remaining in place while the closed low stays well to our west and the other disturbance tracks through the Great Basin headed toward the Four Corners area. Temperatures this weekend will cool slightly from the last couple of days, but expect highs mostly in the low to mid 70s across the lower deserts, or 2-4 degrees above normal.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The latest model runs have not changed their thinking with the first weather system staying far enough to our north on Monday to keep any precipitation chances across northeast Arizona. The system will however drop highs to around 70 degrees and bring some northerly breezy wind across the Lower CO River Valley. Tuesday is expected to be another nice day with clear skies across the area and daytime highs right around normals.

Tuesday will also see the next upcoming weather system dive south southeastward through the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin, but there is still quite a bit of model spread what happens thereafter. Around 2/3rds of the ensemble members show the core of this next trough tracking across western Nevada into southern and central California Wednesday into Thursday, while the rest have a more northerly progressive system tracking through the Four Corners area. Even if the majority solution wins out, we are not guaranteed widespread precipitation chances as this solution may lead to a cut-off low which could retrograde too far to the west. For now the NBM is showing either solution could happen with broad low-end PoP chances from late Wednesday through around Friday morning. As stated yesterday, we are not likely to have a very good idea on what will happen until around early next week once this system starts to take shape.

AVIATION
Updated at 1715Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns are expected through the TAF period, with wind speeds mostly at or below 6 kts at all terminals and directions following typical diurnal tendencies with periods of calm and light variability. Clear to mostly clear skies will also prevail through the period with only some FEW high cirrus.

FIRE WEATHER
Dry and tranquil weather conditions are expected to persist into early next week despite a weak weather system passing just to the north of the area on Monday. Expect slightly above normal temperatures through Sunday before cooling into the normal range starting Monday. Daily MinRHs will continue to range from 25-35% through early next week with good to very good overnight recoveries of 60-80%. Winds will overall remain light through the period except for a period of northerly breezy conditions across the Lower CO River Valley on Monday. By the latter half of next week, another weather system may bring precipitation chances to portions of the area with humidities increasing further.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.