Thursday, September16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pilot Point, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 7:34PM Thursday September 16, 2021 1:13 PM CDT (18:13 UTC) Moonrise 4:20PMMoonset 1:27AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pilot Point, TX
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location: 33.36, -97     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 161739 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1239 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

. New Short Term, Aviation .

SHORT TERM. /NEW/ /Through Friday/

North and Central TX remain under the weak influence of the remnants of Tropical Depression Nicholas. Winds at the surface are easterly to southeasterly. Moisture has also increased across the region with dewpoints now in the mid to upper 60s. This afternoon should see high temperatures top out in the low 90s, which is a little warmer than yesterday. The lighter winds today will also make it feel a bit warmer. More of the same can be expected tomorrow, though winds should finally remain more southeasterly as the remnant low over Louisiana dissipates and another surface low deepens over the Northern Plains. The increased southeasterly flow will lead to increasing moisture and perhaps a very slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorms over our easternmost CWA.

Godwin

LONG TERM. /Issued 337 AM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021/ /Moving Into The Weekend Through Mid Week/

A mid level impulse currently drifting south over Wrn OK will become cut off right over our area on Friday, before continuing southeast toward the Upper Texas Coast/NW Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Progression of this feature will dictated by an amplifying shortwave ridge to our immediate west as a broad trough detaches just off the CA Coast this weekend. The more intensive stream will be well displaced to the north of our area from the northern tier of the U.S. and Southern Canada as we slowly wind down the last week or so of astronomical Summer. With the stronger mid level zonal flow being so displaced north, stronger lee side pressure falls will be displaced further north as well. The pressure gradient and winds across the region will remain relatively weak.

The expected southeast trajectory of the broad mid level low will keep the richest PWAT fields mostly east of our area, from Ern TX through the Deep South. Considering the southeastward drift of this feature toward the NW Gulf through the weekend, the combination of heating with subtle ageostrophic-isallobaric ascent off the east side of this feature. Surface features and lifting mechanisms will be generally absent or very benign, so will only advertise low convective rain chances across Ern Central TX and our far eastern counties each afternoon and early evening with peak heating. High temperatures will be above normal for all except possibly our Ern TX counties (normals are generally mid-upper 80s for mid September), as the shortwave ridge continues to build across the western Southern Plains and High Plains. Highs will range from the mid- upper 80s across East Texas, to the lower-mid 90s along and west of I-35/35W with the toastiest readings and lower humidity values occurring across the Big Country west of US-281.

The above normal heat continues into early next week, as a broad upper ridge continues across the Southern Plains in advance of an impressive and deep, full latitudinal longwave trough evolving from the Canadian Rockies all the way down into the Central Rockies and eventually the High Plains moving into next Tuesday and Wednesday. This is where the forecast upper pattern becomes more challenging, as it transitions more toward an early Fall pattern. Coincidentally, this will be occur just as we happen upon the Fall Equinox on the 22nd (Wednesday). Being we're almost a week out and considering the depth of this mid level energy, deterministic models can definitely struggle and I tend to want to lean on more of the ensemble means of the GEPS, EPS, and GEFS means. Believe or not, the deterministic versions on the latest 00z runs are actually in good agreement on the development and eastward progressive nature of this deep mid level feature and driving a strong cold front (with an airmass originating from the Yukon territory of far NW Canada) through our area sometime Wednesday(GFS) or Wednesday night/Thursday morning (ECMWF).

Either way, confidence is increasing on a strong cold front and cooler/drier airmass arriving into the area around the middle of next week and just in time for the start of astronomical Fall. As for convective chances, we continue to keep them on the low side (20-30%) considering better kinematics/dynamics with a jet streak will be displaced well north of the area across the Central Rockies/Plains, then into the Mid MS Valley, Great Lakes, and OH valley late in the week. Brief low level warm advection right above the surface in advance of the surface cold front and upper trough does a brief window for elevated moisture return. Combined with forcing from the surface cold front and height falls with this upper trough that a few storms are likely. Regarding any severe weather threat, it's way to early to assess what our thermodynamic environment will be like which would likely be the primary driver for storm intensity, as stronger winds aloft and associated wind shear also will remain well north of the area. Regardless, cooler and eventually less humid weather appears is appearing on the horizon. Forecast highs in the lower to mid 80s will begin on Wednesday, while morning lows in the upper 50s and 60s will begin Thursday morning and should last into early the following weekend.

05/Marty

AVIATION. /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/

Winds continue to bounce between roughly 080 and 110 today, but with sustained winds of only 5-10 KT, south flow operations continue at all TAF sites. Wind gusts should be less today compared to the past few days, though an occasional gust to around 15 KT may be possible. Otherwise, VFR will prevail at all TAF sites through the forecast period.

Godwin

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Dallas-Ft. Worth 92 72 93 73 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 92 69 94 71 93 / 0 0 0 0 5 Paris 89 69 89 70 88 / 0 0 10 20 10 Denton 91 68 93 69 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 91 69 92 70 92 / 0 0 0 5 5 Dallas 92 74 93 75 93 / 0 0 0 0 5 Terrell 91 69 92 71 90 / 0 0 5 10 10 Corsicana 89 70 93 73 90 / 0 0 5 5 10 Temple 92 68 95 69 92 / 0 0 0 0 5 Mineral Wells 90 66 93 68 93 / 0 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Denton Enterprise Airport, TX15 mi20 minVar 410.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F67°F53%1013 hPa
Gainesville, Gainesville Municipal Airport, TX23 mi18 minSE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F65°F54%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDTO

Wind History from DTO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9
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NE8NE9N10NE5NE6NE3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE7E5E634
1 day agoSE9
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SE10SE7SE4E6E4E4E6E4CalmN4N4N4N6N4NE10NE5E8E86
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S12SE7SE6SE5SE7SE3SE4CalmS4S4CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmN53E11SE8
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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