Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pilot Point, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 5:23PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 6:17 PM CST (00:17 UTC) Moonrise 5:12PMMoonset 6:40AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pilot Point, TX
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location: 33.36, -97     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 112357 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 557 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

AVIATION. /00Z TAFs/

Concerns and challenges: None.

Main feature for this forecast will be a vigorous mid level shortwave impulse across NM/CO/AZ. This system will move progressively eastward toward the area around 12z, before sliding across North and Central TX airports by 18z Thursday. Moisture below 500 mb will be severely lacking, thus I only expect increasing CI/CS overnight and early Tuesday morning with no precipitation. The system itself will depart to the east during the afternoon and will take the CI/CS canopy eastward with it with mostly SKC conditions returning.

At the surface, broad high pressure continues to slide east across the Lower MS Valley with lee side pressure falls occurring across the Central High Plains of CO/Wrn KS in response to our approaching mid level impulse. Light SE winds 6 knots or less tonight will veer S around 10 knots by 18z Thursday. Enough sub- boundary layer moisture will exist across Central TX and Waco Regional Airport for a brief potential for MVFR VSBYs from 12z-15z Thursday; despite the increasing high cloud canopy occurring overnight.

05/

LONG TERM. /Issued 322 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2019/ /Thursday Night through Mid Next Week/

The end of the week will begin with a downstream longwave trough deepening across the Eastern CONUS. This will leave the area under mundane northwest flow aloft, keeping the temperatures near climo (in the mid 60s) and the sensible weather threat next to none. A weak surface low and its attendant cold front will move through Friday night, but the lack of moisture ahead of the front and significant CAA behind the front will keep the front dry and the temperatures the same or at most only few degrees cooler Saturday. The primary impact of this front will be to drive the higher moisture air well south of the forecast area.

As we head into the weekend, the longwave trough across the Eastern CONUS begins to flatten out as it's pulled northeastward. Coincidentally, a deepening long wave trough will develop across the Western CONUS. This will establish anomalously strong zonal flow (NAEFS ensemble means indicate the zonal flow to be between the 90-97.5th percentile) overtop of the southern Rockies--inducing strong leeside cyclogenesis Saturday night and Sunday. This will allow healthy return flow to set up across the region Sunday and Sunday night. ATTM, the the most efficient moisture return should remain east of I-35/I-35E.

This moisture deflection will come into play as the aforementioned leeside low ejects across the Southern Plains Sunday night into Monday. This will send its attendant cold front through the area with precipitation developing along the frontal boundary. A majority of this precip should be deflected east of I-35 as low level veering ahead of the front continues to push the higher moisture air east. There does appear to be at least modest instability associated with this front, so the mention of thunder was continued with this forecast package. While a lot can change between now and then and the details are largely unknown . at this time . nocturnal frontal passage and a healthy capping inversion aloft in the low level should inhibit the severe threat.

A cooler and drier airmass characterized by below normal temperatures and large diurnal temperature swings will then take hold of the region in the early to middle parts of next week.

Bonnette

SHORT TERM. /Issued 1125 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019/ /Through Tomorrow/

Low level moisture axis across North and Central Texas that led to the development of patchy dense fog overnight has mostly eroded away. The exception this morning is a narrow corridor of fog west of I-35 from Mineral Wells through the northern Hill Country. All fog is expected to dissipate by around 12-1PM, leaving the region with mostly clear skies the rest of today.

High temperatures are expected to be around seasonal normals with mid to upper 50s throughout.

Overnight, temperatures will range from the lower to mid 30s, with just a few locations dropping below freezing across the Hill Country.

With the exception of the patchy dense fog, tomorrow will be almost identical to today. A few streaming high clouds will be possible as a weak shortwave moves through the region, but with the absence of appreciable moisture, its effects on the region will be limited.

Hernandez

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Dallas-Ft. Worth 35 57 42 63 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 34 58 40 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 33 54 36 58 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 34 56 40 62 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 33 55 40 61 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 36 57 42 63 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 32 56 40 63 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 34 58 42 65 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 33 59 40 70 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 32 58 38 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

05/06


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Denton Enterprise Airport, TX15 mi25 minSE 610.00 miFair48°F28°F48%1029.6 hPa
Gainesville, Gainesville Municipal Airport, TX23 mi23 minSSE 310.00 miFair44°F29°F57%1029.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDTO

Wind History from DTO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3E4E4CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS7S7S6S8S10S8S9S8S7SE6
1 day agoN15N12N14N10
G20
N10N13N9N8N8N7N9N8N10N5N6N11N12N9N8NE5NE6NE5N6Calm
2 days agoS15S15S13S9S11S14SW15SW12SW12SW10SW9SW9SW10SW11SW11W11W12
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G17

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.