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FXUS64 KJAN 022032 CCA AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 226 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

New DISCUSSION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 226 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Tonight and tomorrow: A southern stream of moisture and a frontal boundary are supporting scattered showers this afternoon, especially north of the boundary draped across the Natchez Trace.
Low level moisture trapped beneath an inversion will keep overcast skies this afternoon and overnight until a trough currently over the Southern Plains pushes through by tomorrow, ushering in drier air. As a result, clouds should gradually thin tomorrow afternoon, especially to the north and west. Further south and east will be in closer proximity to the southern stream and should see more clouds stick around longer. /SAS/

Sunday night through Friday night: Overall the long range forecast features little in the way of significant weather impacts for the forecast area. The upper level pattern will be quite progressive, flipping from one that has more continental polar influence with northwest flow to one that is more zonal with milder Pacific flow.

In the details, most guidance agree that we will have two weak shortwave troughs zip across the lower MS Valley region in northwest flow early in the work week. Given their fast speed, there will be little time for moisture advection and this will keep any rain chances associated with their passage minimal. If anything, we may need to monitor for fire weather danger given expected dry and gusty west to northerly winds and strong mixing with afternoon RH values dipping to near critical thresholds. Also, it looks like there could be a light freeze Tue night, and perhaps Wednesday night as well, for at least portions of central/eastern MS as surface high pressure centers over the area.

Going into late week, strong Pacific flow moving into the western CONUS will flip the pattern to one that is more zonal and milder for our region. Surface pressures will lower and wind will shift to more southerly resulting in moderating temperatures, and ridging aloft will keep rain chances minimal to end the week.
Looking ahead, we'll be monitoring for the approach of a significant shortwave trough that could eventually bring stormier weather conditions. /EC/

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Low level moisture is trapped beneath an inversion and will keep ceilings very low through the majority of the TAF period. IFR/LIFR conditions will prevail and persist into tomorrow morning before a trough to the west ushers in drier air. Winds will be very light and generally prevail out of the WNW. Dense fog is likely at HEZ/HBG/PIB tomorrow morning with visibilities half mile or less.
Fog and low ceilings should clear by mid morning tomorrow./SAS/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 52 67 48 61 / 30 0 0 0 Meridian 54 68 47 63 / 30 0 0 0 Vicksburg 49 68 45 61 / 20 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 58 70 49 66 / 40 0 0 0 Natchez 50 67 47 61 / 20 0 0 0 Greenville 45 64 43 58 / 10 0 0 0 Greenwood 47 64 43 58 / 30 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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