Sunrise 5:50 AM   Sunset 7:49 PM Moonrise 1:39 PM   Moonset 2:21 AM

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FXUS64 KJAN 160659 AAC AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 159 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

New AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Tonight and tomorrow...

Quiet conditions will continue in the near term as shortwave ridging builds aloft. We transition to a warm advection regime tomorrow ahead of our next system and will see clouds build in from the west throughout the day. By late afternoon a few showers and storms may move into the far southwestern parts of our area as storms begin to spread further east from west Louisiana./SAS/

Thursday-Friday....

A strengthening southern jet and positively tilted trough axis shifting across the Southern Plains will send multiple rounds of shortwaves and associated cold front across the area. The will provide a good storm environment ahead of impending showers and storms; favorable low-level moisture, increasing instability and dewpoints in the low-mid 70s. Thursday evening the chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase steadily from west to east through Friday evening. With better model agreement the main conscience is Thursday evening-Friday evening will be the time frame for possible severe weather with Friday having the best potential for severe. The primary risk will be the heavy rainfall with the possibility of flash flooding extending through the weekend as rainfall totals could reach 3-5 inches from Thursday- Saturday morning with locally higher amounts.Thus a flash flood watch has been issued from 6Z Friday-6Z Saturday. A marginal risk for Thursday night and a slight risk for Friday for the aforementioned severe storms has been added to the HWO for Thursday evening through Friday evening.

Saturday: The chances for showers and storms will diminish from west to east throughout the course of the day as a cold front passes through the area. By Saturday evening, the upper-level trough axis clears eastward as temperatures will trend on the warmer and dryer side behind the front.

Sunday-Tuesday: By Sunday axis will build over the area, gradually intensifying through the end of the period. Expect high temperatures to steadily climb into the low 90s to end the period./KVP/

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

VFR conditions to start the period at the TAF sites, however some patchy BR could develop near a few sites with light winds. Chances for SHRA and TSRA will increase from west to east between 00Z-06Z Friday. Low ceilings and variable visibility is possible in that time frame as rain spreads east. /NF/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 65 83 67 85 / 80 80 50 40 Meridian 64 85 66 86 / 70 90 60 50 Vicksburg 65 83 67 86 / 90 70 40 20 Hattiesburg 68 86 69 86 / 70 80 50 50 Natchez 64 84 67 86 / 90 70 40 20 Greenville 67 81 67 86 / 80 70 40 30 Greenwood 67 81 66 85 / 80 80 40 40

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...Flood Watch from late tonight through late Friday night for MSZ047>066-072>074.

LA...Flood Watch from late tonight through late Friday night for LAZ015-016-023>026.

AR...None.

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