Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Guadalupe, AZ

DISCUSSION
Clear skies now encompass south-central Arizona after some virga and light shower activity brought some increasing cloudiness and gusty winds last evening. The low circulation responsible for this activity has now meandered into New Mexico early this morning as the associated trough slides eastward today as well. Another shortwave will dive southward across the West Coast, which will bring some increasing clouds this afternoon and evening, although the moisture enhancements in the mid-levels is not expected to produce and virga or gusty winds like yesterday. Due to being in a transition with the weather pattern, temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s across the lower deserts, with similar or slightly warmer temperatures continuing into this weekend.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will continue to dive along the southern California coast through Thursday before meandering into the Desert Southwest on Friday. This feature will keep temperatures from continuing to warm, as the main anomalous ridging remains north of the region. As this ridging slides eastward late this week, a strong Pacific trough will move onshore, bringing more active weather to the Desert Southwest over the weekend.

Ensembles continue to refine the details in regards to a cutoff low deepening into the Desert Southwest over the weekend, with just minor positional and mid-level negative height anomaly differences through Sunday. Thus, confidence is now high that the region can expect the sensible weather changes starting Saturday, where breezy to windy conditions filtering in from west to east through Sunday. Current NBM probabilities of 40+ mph wind gusts relegated to higher terrain features out west on Saturday, with marginal (40-60%) chances for places like the Imperial Valley, with those gusts dependent on mountain wave activity setting up at the right time of day. These winds will then spread east across south-central Arizona on Sunday, where borderline advisory-level winds (40+ mph gusts) will then potentially impact higher terrain areas (50-70% chance). While previous forecasts mentioned fire weather concerns on Saturday for higher terrain areas of south- central Arizona, the concern is now diminished due to the slower progression of this cutoff low to where winds will be weaker.

Due to the position of this cutoff low remaining west of the region on Saturday, above normal temperatures are expected to remain in place prior to a dramatic cooldown on Sunday, on the order of 10-20 degrees, depending on how strong this low becomes.
Precipitation chances remain minimal, as the very dry conditions in place prior to this weather disturbance will seemingly be too hard to overcome to produce much in the way of any significant precipitation probabilities and accumulations. Current NBM PoP's continue to remain reasonable for the most part at 15% or lower Saturday night onward at this time across the region. As mentioned, temperatures are expected to dip to below to well below normal levels (still a 5-10 degrees interquartile range)
beginning on Sunday and extending into early next week. The pattern becomes a bit more uncertain in regards to how quickly this trough weakens and/or exits the region early next week, thus the temperature trends will seemingly start warming after Monday, but the rate of warming remains uncertain.

AVIATION
Updated at 0537Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:

No aviation weather impacts are expected through the next 24 hours. Typical diurnal wind patterns are expected with a westerly shift by 19-20Z tomorrow. Sustained wind speeds will stay at or below 10 kts through the TAF period, with afternoon wind gusts into the middle teens. to Lingering FEW clouds down to 10k ft AGL now should persist through midnight before becoming SKC through the morning. High clouds then move in tomorrow afternoon.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Both KBLH and KIPL will see light winds persist through tomorrow morning, with some periods of very light variability. Winds at KIPL will eventually shift southeasterly by noon tomorrow and KBLH will see gusts pick up to around 20 kts from the SW by the afternoon, while KIPL experiences a brief period of 15-20 kt gusts in the evening. Mostly clear skies are expected through tomorrow morning, followed by SCT to BKN high clouds for the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER
Temperatures will continue to warm through the rest of this week with afternoon highs topping out near to slightly above normal.
Winds will overall continue to favor light, diurnal tendencies with some afternoon gusts upwards of 15-25 mph. Min RHs will generally remain around 10-15% through the rest of the week. A cool, but mostly dry, weather system is expected to approach and move through the region this weekend, increasing the RH's, along with increasing gusty winds across the area starting Saturday and persisting through Sunday. Given the strengthening winds this weekend and lingering low RH's, at least elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated for higher terrain area of the eastern districts.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.