Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Vincent, AL

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025

High pressure will remain the east of the state through Wednesday, with low and mid level flow prevailing from the south and southeast. This flow will bring moisture and warm air to the state. A lingering boundary at the surface will continue to the east of the area through the afternoon, with skies expected to slowly clear across the east. Isolated showers and a low chance for thunderstorms is possible, weakening after sunset. PW values will be between the 75th and 90th percentile, with instabilities around 1200 J/kg or less.

Wednesday, the upper level high will move east, with diurnal isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. The greater coverage and chances will be in the southeast, where instabilities will higher, with values between 1500 and 2000 J/kg, and PW values near 90th percentile for this time of year.
Convection should again weaken after sunset. Any of the stronger storms could produce strong winds and heavy rainfall.

Temperatures today will be fairly mild in the east where the cloud cover has remained through the morning, and will continue to slowly clear through the early afternoon. Highs here should only reach low 80s, with a few areas only reaching the upper 70s. Areas in the west of the state that had plenty of sunshine could see temperatures reaching mid 80s this afternoon. Overnight, soundings are showing a delay in any clouds moving into the state, so low temperatures should be a couple of degrees cooler in the low to mid 60s. Wednesday afternoon, highs should reach several degrees above normal with mid to upper 80s in the afternoon.

24

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 103 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025

Forecast trends for Thursday remain on track with the expectation of outflow driven thunderstorms to propagate from northern Mississippi into an unstable airmass across northwestern Alabama Thursday afternoon. Forecast parameters support a marginal damaging wind threat with a lower risk of large hail. Convective evolution remains questionable with model guidance handling it in different ways, but will get a better handle of things as we move within range of the hi- res models. For now, the activity looks to weaken and diminish with eastward extent as it moves into drier air. On Friday, the cold front will begin to arrive and coverage of showers/storms should increase compared to Thursday. Would suspect another low-end severe risk to be introduced for Friday, but will wait until more details are resolved before initiating formal messaging. All in all, nothing too surprising for this time of year. Relatively weak forcing into a warm, moist Spring airmass results in chances for a few severe storms. Temperatures will be slightly cooler and more pleasant behind the front this weekend then a strong ridge will begin to build back over the region by early next week as warm and dry conditions resume across the forecast area.

86/Martin

Previous long-term discussion: (Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2025

Thursday: Forecast models are consistent with the presence of a convective complex to our west, along or just west of the Mississippi River, at daybreak Thursday. Despite the shortwave trough axis aiding this activity on a trajectory away from us and toward the Ohio Valley through the day, it appears the batch of showers and thunderstorms will continue to advance toward our area in part via outflow propagation. Forecast models favor this activity arriving to locations near and northwest of the 59/20 corridor sometime during the afternoon, when ensemble data show a high probability of the storm environment involving a moderately unstable air mass and bulk shear upwards of 35 knots. Combined with the makeup of forecast soundings immediately ahead of the storms, the setup supports a level 1 out of 5 risk of gusty winds and perhaps an instance of severe-caliber hail. To the southeast of the 20 corridor, weaker flow and the potential for a preceding moisture deficit should allow for the batch of showers and storms to commence a weakening trend during the evening. Weak flow, weak instability, and surface boundaries may allow for some lingering activity overnight for parts of the area.

Friday: Thursday's shortwave trough will be absorbed over New England by the larger-scale trough pattern pivoting across the central U.S. This will begin to send a front toward the Gulf Coast region. Ahead of the front, another day of showers and thunderstorms is forecast, some forming locally and some potentially arriving from the west. The storm environment doesn't look to be too much different from Thursday, but will include a larger chunk of the region. Again, strong-to-severe storms could occur from afternoon to early evening and may be formally included in the forecast pending trends.

Saturday-Monday: Variability exists between the GFS/ECMWF and their ensembles on Saturday regarding how quickly showers and storms vacate the area. The forecast currently calls for a chance of lingering activity generally south of the 20 corridor for part of the day before the front moves across, leading to a more certain prospect for a fair-weather day on Sunday. A period of dew points in the upper 40s to lower 50s are forecast heading into next week, which will allow for pleasant conditions, warm afternoons/mild nights.

89^GSatterwhite

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025

VFR conditions continues through much of this TAF cycle. With that said, there is a moderate (50-70%) chance of MVFR ceilings/vis from 11-15Z at ANB/ASN/MGM. Winds will be less than 10 knots through the period. Isolated convection is expected Wednesday afternoon. Opted to leave out of the TAFs at this time due to confidence in coverage.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Afternoon minimum RHs are forecast to hold above critical thresholds through the week with overnight recovery into the 90 to 100% range. Shower and storm chances commence Thursday afternoon near and northwest of the 59/20 corridor, spreading to include all of central Alabama through Friday. 20-foot winds will be from the south around 5 mph today and Wednesday, still southerly but increasing to between 5-10 mph on Thursday. Winds will be variable in direction and speed/gusty in and near showers and storms. Drier air looks to return over the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 61 85 63 85 / 0 20 10 20 Anniston 62 84 64 85 / 0 20 0 20 Birmingham 64 85 67 84 / 0 20 0 30 Tuscaloosa 64 87 66 85 / 0 20 0 50 Calera 63 85 66 84 / 0 20 0 30 Auburn 64 83 65 84 / 0 20 0 0 Montgomery 65 86 64 87 / 0 20 0 10 Troy 64 84 62 86 / 10 30 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.