Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 7:20 PM Moonrise 4:34 PM   Moonset 4:35 AM

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FXUS64 KBMX 201146 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 646 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT SAT APR 20 2024

A frontal boundary has stalled out near the I-20 corridor as the surface lows continue to slide east through the Mid-Atlantic and Great Lakes. As we move through the day the front will begin to slide to the south again as a kicker system begins to work into the area. Scattered showers and a few storms will be possible, especially this afternoon. The highest potential for storms will be in the southeast, where differential heating will help add some fuel to the airmass. Much like the past several days strong storms with gusty winds and hail are possible but should remain isolated and limited.

By tonight the front should be south of the I-85 corridor and north of I-10 in southern Alabama/Florida panhandle. Meanwhile a disturbance and low pressure system will ride along and north of the front tonight into Sunday. This will provide a fairly widespread soaking rain to the area through Sunday morning.
Lightning will generally be limited to the far south through Sunday. By Sunday afternoon the majority of the rain will be south of the I-20 and continue to slide south and east.

16

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT SAT APR 20 2024

Rain should be completely out of the forecast area Sunday evening as a shortwave trough swings across the region. As high pressure moves in, cool northerly flow will result in temperatures falling into the lower to mid 40s for lows on Monday morning and again on Tuesday morning. West-northwest flow at 500 mb and dry conditions will be the story through Friday along with a significant warming trend associated with westerly low-level flow.

87/Grantham

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM CDT SAT APR 20 2024

The cold front was located just south of the I-20 corridor.
Widespread MVFR ceilings north of the cold front will overspread the northern TAF sites by 13Z. At MGM/TOI, patchy fog is reducing visibilities but will be done by 14Z. Ceilings will become VFR by 19 to 21Z and then back to MVFR by 00Z/03Z. Went ahead and included a prob30 for storms. Heavy rain will be the main issue from 03 to 12Z.

16

FIRE WEATHER

Behind a cold front, rain will move into the region later today and continue through Sunday morning. Drier conditions return to the region on Sunday afternoon into Monday. RH values on Monday are expected to fall to around 30 percent with northerly 20 foot winds of 6 to 10 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 71 45 60 40 / 30 70 60 0 Anniston 73 48 57 41 / 30 80 80 0 Birmingham 69 47 59 42 / 40 80 70 0 Tuscaloosa 68 48 61 42 / 60 90 70 0 Calera 71 49 58 43 / 40 80 80 0 Auburn 79 52 58 47 / 40 70 90 10 Montgomery 79 53 59 45 / 60 70 80 10 Troy 83 56 61 45 / 70 50 80 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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